Tag Archives: Saudi Arabia

Trump Foreign Policy-The Kurds-Syria-Turkey–Part II

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City of Raqqa, before and after the Syrian Civil War and the Rise and Fall of ISIS.

In the last segment, we laid out the main players in the Kurdish, Syrian, Turkey conflict theatre and discussed each of the player’s interested in chaos or stability in the region.  Bear in mind that we are actually discussing a narrow, 20 mile long strip of land along the Northeast Syrian Border that is bordered to the North by Turkey.  This land is shown below as the Safe Zone that Turkey is demanding to be cleared of Kurdish and Syrian Influence.

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In the past 3 days, President Trump has been able to negotiate a ceasefire between Turkey, Syria and the Kurds.  Sporadic fighting continues and will continue between various subgroups but so far no major air strikes have occurred.  In about 3 more days, the parties involved, including the Kurds, must agree to clearing the “Safe Zone” and cease hostilities indefinitely.  Turkey would then be responsible for “peace” in the “Safe Zone”.

Will the ceasefire hold?  Maybe.  The Kurds will have to withdraw to the south and east into other parts of Syria or even Iraq.  Without US financial and arms support, it will be difficult for the Kurds to wage any real incursions into Turkey claimed territory or into Turkey itself.  If you look at the red dots on the map, these are areas where there are ISIS supporters.  These cities are surrounded by Turkish, Kurdish, Syrian, and SDF forces that will pretty much insure that the odds of a rise in ISIS strength in the Northeastern region of Syria is slim to none.  (Iraq is a different story and will be dealt with in a subsequent post.)   So, the question is whether Turkey and the Syrian-Kurds can coexist in this region without hostilities.  My bet is that there will be periodic skirmishes but no major offensive by either side.  The Kurds can’t afford it and Turkey has the US watching it closely.

What is Next?

NATO:  The NATO nations must meet with Turkey and reinforce their insistence on peace in the “Safe Zone” with assurances that the NATO members will work to insure that the Kurds remain non-combative and that “terror” attacks by them on Turkish targets be stopped.  The NATO nations must step up and take responsibility for their citizens who left Europe to join ISIS are brought back into their home countries and kept incarcerated.  Same for the US.  Turkey should maintain custody for those of Middle Eastern descent who joined ISIS whose return to their home country would only insure their release.

Syrian Civil War Aftermath:  The Syrians who are aligned against the Syrian Assad regime have a choice to keep up their insurgency or accept that they were unable to topple Assad.  My money is on some type of truce being formed between Assad and the rebel forces.  Assad is a brutal dictator and this outcome may be something of a humanitarian crisis without some form of international intervention that does NOT have to involve direct military force.

This “civil war” has left much of Syria in rubble and their population decimated with a high number of expatriated refugees.  Estimates of deaths due to this civil war range from 220,000 to 500,000 men, women and children.  Hundreds of thousands have fled to Europe, Jordan and other countries.  Unless the infrastructure of Syria is somehow rebuilt, it will be impossible for these refugees to return. The picture at the top of this article of the city of Raqqa is a small example of the devastation that the civil war has inflicted on a once beautiful and well developed nation.  

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Syrian Refugees leaving Syria

Rebuilding Syria:  The World Bank has estimated that it would cost US$180 Billion to rebuild the infrastructure in Syria.  Many believe that this estimate is low by a factor of 3 or 4!  With oil prices hovering around $50.00 per barrel, Syrian revenues could not begin to fund this rebuilding effort.  In 2014, Syria’s GDP was only US$24.6 Billion!  Other nations in the Middle East are also somewhat squeezed by lower oil prices so their ability, or desire, to help in rebuilding Syria is not all that great.

Who Gets Stuck With the Bill:  One of the best features of President Trump’s withdrawal from Syria is that Assad, Russia, and Iran are now faced with either paying for the rebuilding of Syria or dealing with a nation in shambles whose citizens are living in abject poverty and have literally nothing to lose.  One not too bright so-called expert on TV stated that President Trump’s withdrawal from Syria meant that Syria is now in the hands of the RUSSIANS.  Really!  Syria has been in the hands of the Russians since the Cold War and when Assad’s father ruled Syria.  Russia wants NOTHING to do with funding the cost to rebuild Syria.  Russia’s GDP is only US$1.5 trillion and they do not want to use over 20% of their GDP on Syria!  President Trump has squeezed every red cent out of Iran with his sanctions so they have little or nothing to contribute to the rebuilding of Syria, nor do they really care about the citizenry of Syria.  After all, whatever little the Ayatollahs have left they have to use to fund Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen.  All the while the Ayatollahs are facing an increasing level of hostilities from their own citizens at home!

Syria and Iranian Crap Shoot:  President Trump has laid the foundation to force Assad to cave in and give up much of his autonomy at home in favor of international cooperation to rebuild his country.  Assad is like a stockholder holding all of the shares of a company that is worth ZERO.  He has no bargaining chips; Russia has its own financial problems; and Iran is not too far behind Syria in terms of financial ruin.  Assad could do something really stupid and launch a barrage of humanitarian crisis but I doubt it.  It would be short lived and he would not survive it.  Iran could do likewise but they would face retribution from 80% of the other Middle Eastern countries, Israel, the US and hopefully NATO.  

My Prediction? (As good as anyone’s on CNN or MSNBC)

So, my prediction is that within 1-3 years Syria will be under some type of “Marshall Plan” and that Assad will be all but gone or be a titular head only.  (Remember, Assad may be Shia but the majority of Syrians are Sunni)  President Trump will make sure that Syria is not subjected to a US enforced regime change but be allowed to transition into some form of local control monitored by regional nations.  The plan will be administered by a coalition of other Middle Eastern countries that are led by Saudi Arabia.  This is the main platform of Trump’s Middle East Foreign Policy. 

Iran will be or have been immersed in civil unrest that will lead to the Ayatollahs losing a grip on the country.  Their ability to wage proxy wars would have been eliminated by US sanctions.  Iran would have lost the support of China as China needs a stable Iran from which to buy oil.  (Oh yea, and Little President Macron would be in the same boat.)  The EU and China would join the US in backing anti-Ayatollah factions in Iran to stabilize their economy and remove the crippling US sanctions.

Pipedream?  Maybe.  But unless someone does something really dumb like use a nuclear weapon, Russia, Iran and Syria are not capable of any further prolonged conflicts; nor is Russia capable of investing in Syria’s or Iran’s pipedreams of regional or world dominance.  The EU would back our play only because it is in their interest.  Turkey will be delighted as their age old adversaries, Iran and Syria, were forced to bite the dust.  The Middle East transformation where the predominant Sunni nations take the lead in stabilizing the region would be complete.  

You should hope I am right!

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

Hat Tips:

https://www.rt.com/business/339703-world-bank-syria-costs/

https://dailycaller.com/2019/10/18/nato-kurds-jim-talent-james-carafano-syria/

GW Bush Set Up Perfect Storm with Iran for Trump!

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How did we get here?

  • President Jimmy Carter stood by while the Shia radical clerics in Iran overthrew the Shah of Iran in 1979 and established the current Islamic Republic of Iran. 
  • President Reagan stood behind and armed Iraq’s Sunni President Saddam Hussein as a couter balance to the Islamic Republic of Iran. 
  • President H.W. Bush reneged on his tacit approval with Iraq’s President Saddam Hussein to allow Iraq to attack Kuwait in retaliation for Kuwaiti alleged oil theft and debt default.  Dessert Storm resulted which weakened Iraq and left it vulnerable to Iran.
  • President G.W. Bush took out Iraq’s Sunni President Saddam Hussein and TOTALLY eliminated our counter-balance to the Shia Iran.
  • Iraq’s population mirrors Irans in that both are predominently Shia.  The two largest Shia Populations in the Middle East.

For more details on the Bush Presidencies and the fall of Iraq, see “GW Bush and the Ascension of Iran & ISIS”; go to this link: https://wp.me/pY51c-Qx

So!  For decades Iran and Iraq fought local wars against one another following the overthrow of the Shah in Iran.  Thousands were killed on both sides and chemical weapons were used on both sides.  This was in fact a Sunni/Shia war as Shia Iran sought to defeat the Iraqi Sunni regime under Saddam Hussein and merge the Iraqi Shia population with its own.  The Shia are the majority in Iraq.

So!  While Reagan sought to maintain a stalemate between Iraq and Iran, the Bushes systematically destroyed this check and balance and wiped out a Sunni regime in Iraq that now sits as a ticking timebomb for Iran to venture in and establish a Shia Government friendly to Iran!  Iraq and its fragile Sunni/Shia coalition cannot endure without outside intervention, meaning the US, or it will fall to the Shia majority.

Thank you Presidents HW and GW Bush!

So!  President Trump wants desperately to get out of Iraq (and Afghanistan) but knows that the minute we leave that Iran will move in.  Also, Sunni Fundamentalist, like ISIS, would love to get us out so they can try to re-emerge.  Iran now has or is close to having weapons grade uranium and has missile technology to deliver a nuclear weapon of some sort when ready.  The Bushes took out the only counter-balance to the radicals in Iran by neutralizing Iraq and crippling this Iraqi enemy.

Trump’s Dilema:

  • How to Stop Iran from creating a nuclear weapon?
  • How to get out of Iraq without ceding it to Iran?
  • How to do both without re-engaging in a long protracted war.

Trump’s strategy all along has been to stand up allies in the region to stalemate Iran and its regional ambitions.  He does not want our Flag to be the symbol of US Agression in the Middle East!  To date, he does not have all of the pieces in place but is close with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE.  But, our own Republican Senate is blocking arms sales to Saudi Arabia that could be used to thwart Iran!

If Iran steps up its provocative actions in the region, Trump and his allies may have to react militarily.  Europe has a role as well as they need to stand with the US against Iran and Iran’s reneging on the Iranian Nuclear Agreement THAT IRAN NEVER SIGNED!! 

Tighter sanctions may spark an internal overthrow of the Ayatollah led regime and THIS IS THE ONLY WAY TO STOP IRAN AND NOT HAVE TO USE MILITARY FORCE AGAINST IRAN.  Short of that, Iran knows that Israel will not stand idly by and allow them to spin up a nuclear weapon.

As an aside to this tragedy:

GW Bush’s legacy will include that he got us into a war with Iraq when in fact we had so many other avenues to pursue prior to invading Iraq.  I cannot justify his actions other than they were motivated by his desire to avenge the attempt on his Father’s life by Saddam Hussein when the former President was being given an award in Kuwait for saving Kuwait from Saddam Hussein.

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Bush and our intel community insisted that Iraq was attempting to develop nuclear weapons and had in fact used chemical weapons against Iran in past conflicts.  While the latter is true, both sides used chemical weapons against each other.  Besides, Pakistan, Libya, India, Israel, North Korea, China and others had not only pursued nuclear weapons but had actually developed them!  Bush blamed Saddam for killing thousands of his own people.  So had Iran!  How many Iraqis did we kill in our two wars against Iraq!  You guessed it, over 200,000!  

My real sadness comes from knowing that thousands of our vets were maimed and thousands killed in Iraq.  For What?  What was our end game?  What did we gain from not only the carnage to our troops but to Iraqi civilians?  When I see GW Bush riding with our wounded warriors, I literally get sick to my stomach.

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I truly do not know if I could look them in the eye knowing I sent them into battle without a national security rationale;  succumbed to political pressure and created rules of engagement that made our troops sitting ducks; created a “surge” to win the war after years of merely trading bullets with the Iraqi army; then leaving office without a Status of Forces Agreement with what was left of the Iraqi Government.  He left this decision to President Obama!  How about those who followed his orders into battle only to lose their lives, limbs and faculties?  Didn’t Bush owe them at least a SOFA that would give them some level of knowledge that their sacrifice was worth it?  I think so…

Pray for President Trump.  He has many difficult decisions ahead of him that will effect not only our lives but those of our children and grandchildren.

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

 

US Military-Have We Forgotten How To Win?

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Trump is Military’s Staunchest Supporter, Why is Pentagon Pushing Against Him?

On January 20th of this month, President will have been Commander-In-Chief for two years.  Trump is first and foremost a businessman and a pragmatist.  He also does what he says he will do and it is amazing that after two years people are shocked when this happens!

President Trump has for years questioned whether we as a nation still know how to win a war.  We seem to be good at creating, then maintaining stalemates, or withdrawing, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory like as we did in Viet Nam, North Korea and elsewhere.  He often asked the question, as I have, could the US really fight a war like WWI and WWII again or do we lack the moral fiber and strength to commit and follow through with such a sacrifice?  The second follow-up question would logically be, are we fighting wars that are truly in our national self-interest vis-à-vis protecting the US against annihilation.  If a war is fought where the enemy or the cause DOES NOT pose an existential threat to us, can we be truly committed to using all of our military capabilities, perhaps short of nuclear, to defeat the enemy quickly and decisively?  The apparent answer is no!  If the answer was yes, then we would not have agreed to ridiculous international restrictions on our warfare capabilities or create rules of engagement that put our troops at risk.

Isn’t it a little nuts that we have 3 war heroes that are currently incarcerated or awaiting a court-martial just because they did their job while fighting for us?  All the while we have deserters and traitors who divulged national secrets, to the detriment of our nation, pardoned or set free!

Enter Pro-Military Trump

  In that time, he has secured almost $2 Trillion in military spending; cut ISIS held territory in Iraq and Syria to 1% of what it was when he took office; applied some the of the harshest sanctions ever against misdeeds by Russia;  retaliated against Syria’s use of chemical weapons twice, stepped up bombing and special forces attacks in Afghanistan; withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal; Stopped North Korea from continuing its testing of nuclear weapons and ICBMs; helped Saudi Arabia in Yemen against the Iran backed rebels; forced NATO allies to pony up some cash for their own defense forces to meet their commitments; and declared his intention to pursue a “Space Force” to checkmate China and Russia in the race to weaponize space.  But yet there are those who say Trump is not hawkish enough.  Most of these are left over Neo-Cons and Never-Trumpers who would like to see the US remain in current wars for “however long it takes”. 

The President, however, believes that you set a war objective, throw everything you can at the objective, then once the objective is met, or if there is no success in sight, then pull out!

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The latest backlash against Trump’s foreign policy is his announced withdrawal from Syria and drawdown in Afghanistan.  Democrats, Republicans, and military talking heads all went apoplectic!  But, look at it from Trump’s perspective:

  1. He gave the military brass clear objectives in Syria, obliterate ISIS, and, in Afghanistan, make the Afghans capable of self-defense while taking the fight to the Taliban, ISIS and Al Qaeda.
  2. He gave the military brass what they asked for in each theatre of battle, based on his objectives, every 6 months when he met with them for a theatre assessment.
  3. After 4, 6 month reviews, without any real change in the military’s recommendation and with ISIS all but wiped out, and, the Afghanistan scoreboard pretty much unchanged, Trump did what Trump does and pulled the plug and “shocked” the Pentagon and hawks! 
  4. If you tell Trump that if we do “X”, then we will achieve the objective, but then you don’t, he will cut his loses and reformulate his policy, and find someone who can!

Trump did not abandon the military nor did he minimize the prior sacrifices of thousands of our troop who have died or left maimed by years of conflict.  What he did was to tell everyone going in, that if we are going to ask our young men and women to stand up and fight, then we owe it to them to give them every advantage possible including a strategy to win or leave while minimizing the impact of either outcome.  Sending our finest into harms way for 18 years in one theatre and 16 in another defies credulity when you consider the military capabilities of the US against any of these foes.  The obvious conclusion has to be that we simply did not engage the enemy to win! 

Everyone says we have to have a coalition before we engage an enemy.  The coalitions we have put together so far include European soldiers who will not fight at night; hardly any, including the US, who will engage in a kill to win strategy; and all pussy foot around Islamic religious nonsense rather than treat them like a real enemy.  Maybe we should think of them as Catholic, Baptist, Buddhists, or whatever!

Can We Ever Fight To Win Again?

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Only if we change our Pentagon culture and silence the anti-war, read to mean they don’t care if our soldiers die, crowds who wring their hands when we actually kill the enemy or God forbid, incarcerate one of them in an off-shore prison!

War Strategy:  In the Middle-East, fighting ground wars like in Afghanistan and Iraq, is the epitome of the definition of insanity as stated: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

Insanity

Our enemies, and our allies, both know that we will not take “shock and awe” into or close to civilian populations.  So we resort to clearing residential neighborhoods house by house which is the equivalent of sending our troops into a meat grinder.  This strategy creates safe zones from which our enemy can hide and regroup.

Our enemies, and our allies, both know that we will not impose strict enough sanctions, and sustain them, to starve out our enemies.  We have too many US and international businesses, and many of our “allied” governments, who will cheat on sanctions for their own benefit.  There are too many left-wing advocacy groups who will apply pressure by citing adverse affects to civilian populations due to the sanctions.

Our enemies, and our allies, both know that we will not engage in enhanced interrogation techniques designed to obtain strategic and tactical information with which to defeat our enemies.  Politically our politicians care more about “feelings” and perception than our own troops, and citizens’ well being.  Our enemies do not share our predilection for eschewing enhanced interrogation.

Our enemies, and our allies, both know that we will not set hard goals, objectives and timelines and stick to them.  The longer the war, the less likely we will stay the course.  If our military objective in Afghanistan was to annihilate the Taliban completely, don’t you think that by now we would have attacked them in Pakistan, cutting off their safe haven, and turned over every stone and found each and every member and eliminated them as a threat?

Trump Rules

In the Middle East, those of our allies in the region must actively police their own region.  We do not see Iran and the Palestinians as an existential threat to the US.   We will provide support but our footprint will be limited.  If a Nation threatens another Nation, Iran vs Saudi Arabia, Iran vs Israel, etc., we will provide strategic and tactical firepower but our allies must be the face of the offensive.  We fully expect all of our allies in the region to pay their way in terms of resources and man power to defend their region.  

In regards to China and to some degree Russia, Trump has set them both up strategic long-term “competitors” who can pose an existential threat to the US.  His strategy is to remove any economic advantages they may have vis-à-vis the US in trade and the seizing of key commodities around the world, especially within the Americas.  The US GDP per capita is $57,638 while the Chinese per capita GDP is only $8,123, with Russian GDP per capita coming in at $8,748!   Trump’s goal is to slow the growth of the Chinese and Russian economies vis-à-vis the US economy and allow us to maintain military and technological superiority over both.  Russia is especially vulnerable as 75% of their exports are energy related and with Trump unleashing our energy sector, we can seriously damage, if not bankrupt, the Russian economy.  Trump wants to throttle the Russian bear but not force him into a corner.  Russia still is the #2 nuclear power in the world.  China is reliant on imports of energy allowing Trump to use our energy strength to level our balance of trade.  He will also fight to safeguard our technologies and keep both adversaries from stealing US technology.  He will also pressure China to abandon their move to control the South China Sea through naval militarization of the region.  

Pentagon Challenge

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The Pentagon brass needs to take a step back and forget everything they have learned during the past 50 years of Neo-Conservative Foreign Policy and War StrategyYes we need strategic forces capable of setting a large footprint, if needed, in opposing China or Russia, backed by a strong naval, air and space force.  We need surgical forces capable of lethal isolated and targeted attacks against terrorist type enemies throughout the world.  We need to put the world on record that these attacks will not recognize borders if a host country permits terrorists to remain in their borders. 

We need to rethink and challenge our current alliances in recognition of the world we live in today. 

NATO must stand up and fully fund their commitments and be the tip of the spear in confronting Russian aggression with our staunch support.  These NATO allies must acquiesce to real, lethal rules of engagement. 

Our Asian-Pacific Allies must re-arm, in the case of Japan, and stand up for themselves as our ally.  They must make sure that North Korea and China know they are serious and are resolved to not being intimidated by either. 

We must rebuild strong alliances in South and Central America and stand against the socialist regimes that infect our southern hemisphere allies.  We must also rid this area of drug cartels and remove their political power from their host nations.  This is especially true of our neighbor Mexico.

We must redefine our relationship with allies as being mutually beneficial with balanced contributions.  While we have a large apron, we cannot allow allies to hide behind it and leave all of the hard lifting to us and our men and women.  Commitment can only be gained through a sense of self-esteem that comes from the pride in knowing that you are contributing.  

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

 

Trump Middle East & Terrorism Doctrine-Saudi Arabia at the Core

The Mainstream Media, Anti-Trumpers, and Washington Elites try to claim that President Trump does not have  a cohesive policy regarding the Middle East and the War on Terror.  The main reason is that they fear that the Trump Middle East War On Terror Doctrine will actually work!  It is the antithesis of the Neocons invasive policies of meddling directly in everyone else’s business and a rejection of the Left and Elites globalist policies to weaken the US.  In short, President Trump Gets It!

The Trump Middle East Doctrine actually includes West Asia, India, and Pakistan and is based on a strong Sunni alliance for the Muslim countries anchored to Saudi Arabia at its core.  The inclusion of India and Pakistan creates a Mutually Assured Destruction alliance of the areas two pre-eminent nuclear nations (excluding Israel) that is critical to insure that Pakistan does not form an unholy alliance with other neighboring nations.  This alliance sets up Iran as the primary military foe and Iranian sponsorship of terror as a key target of the War on Terror.  Under the covers, Israel is also included in the Alliance via its mostly covert interaction with Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Image result for trump summit in saudi arabia

Trump Middle East / War on Terror Doctrine

  1. Combat Radical Islam By Enlisting Sunni Muslim Nations:
    1. Create an Anti-Terror Sunni Muslim Coalition:  Earlier this year, President Trump met with over 50 Muslim nations to enlist their support in combatting Radical Islam.  All 50 countries agreed to cut off funding support for Radical Islamists and to create reforms in their countries to curb the spread of radical ideologies. 
    2. Setup Saudi Arabia as the Cornerstone to the Sunni Muslim Anti-Terror Coalition:  It is important to note that the meeting of the 50+ Muslim Arab nations was hosted by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah with his son and heir apparent, Mohammed bin Salman, or “MBS” at his side.  President Trump has invested his trust in MBS to not only take his country into the twentieth century (not a typo), but to lead the Sunni Arab nations to checkmate Iran, Russia and Syria in the region.  MBS knows that in order to temper, then eliminate the Saudi Wahhabi radicals, he must isolate their internal supporters.  Hence, the current round of arrests and the freezing of their assets.  In the past, many in the royal family funded terrorism around the world and supported the Wahhabi radical Islamists.  The plan is to reform Saudi Arabia internally so they can then take the lead to reform Islam in the Sunni world and drive out radical Islamists.  This removes the past duplicity of Saudi Arabia claiming to support the US war on terror while funding terrorists!  MBS views radical Islamists as the barrier to not only religious reform, but a barrier to bringing the Sunni nations into the modern world.  MBS knows that the oil dominance of the Middle East is seriously threatened by US energy production and that his economy needs to diversify or die.  He also needs to get his citizens working so they are occupied and do not engage in idle radicalization.  Some question if MBS is leading Saudi Arabia into an Iran like takeover by radical Islamists.  The main differences between 1979 Iran and 2017 Saudi Arabia is technology, US Support and military might.  MBS controls one of the most weaponized militaries in the Middle East with a surveillance capability to deeply monitor and respond to any insurrection.  MBS knows he also has President Trump watching his back.  President Carter threw the Shah of Iran under the bus that allowed the Ayatollahs to overthrow the Shah’s regime!
    3. By eliminating funding sources to terrorists, it will make it very difficult for them to expand and export their poison.
      Also, it is critical that this be a Sunni Arab effort and not be seen as the US led intervention.  US Intervention and resulting Middle East wars do provide some fuel to terrorist propaganda.  It is hard to claim that the killing of 2-400,000 Iraqis endears the Iraqi population to the US.  
    4. Create a coalition of Sunni Arab nations to stand against Iran, its nuclear and missile programs, and its exportation of terror. This is critical to achieve a long-term peace solution without a significant US military intervention and extended occupation.  This is a two-part win if successful.  One, the Sunni Muslims will stand on their own in terms of controlling their region.  Two, Iran will quickly see that the “Great Satan” (the US and Israel) is no longer valid and they are challenged by other Muslims in their own neighborhood.  
  2. Make the US Energy Independent:  This is an often overlooked piece of the puzzle in securing peace in the Middle East and combating terrorism.  Why?  The US needs to use its dominant energy production to checkmate Russian intervention in the region by threatening to ruin the Russian economy by taking a large chunk out of their energy exports which supports 70% of the Russian economy.  Our energy position also checkmates Middle Eastern Oil Producers/OPEC and incentivizes them to support the Trump Doctrine for the Middle East.
  3. Rip Up the Iran Nuclear Agreement:
    1. The Iran Nuclear Agreement is a guarantee that Shiite Iran will become a nuclear power within the Middle East with tested delivery systems that will threaten not only the Middle East but Western Europe as well.  President Trump has set in motion the abandonment of this agreement to isolate Iran.
    2. President Trump will begin to reestablish harsh sanctions on Iran in an attempt to regain some ground given up by the Obama cash giveaway program to Iran.  Our treasury secretary must weaken and degrade Iran’s economy to the point that their ability to continue to support terrorism and invest in their nuclear program is difficult.  Too bad Obama subsidized their terrorism efforts to the tune of $150B when we had Iran on the ropes economically!  Treasonous.  
    3. Once the US takes the sanctions lead and is out of the Iran Nuclear Agreement, President Trump will deal with Iran as a terrorist nation that is an existential threat to the rest of the world much like North Korea.  He will be solidly backed by the Sunni Arab coalition formed during his Saudi Arabia summit with Israel as their “wingman”.  IF Iran does not denuclearize unilaterally, which is not likely, then the coalition will have to degrade their nuclear development with strategic attacks all the while fomenting internal unrest against the Ayatollahs.  One way or another, Iran is incapable of standing against the 50 nation coalition even with Russian support.
  4. Expel Iran from Syria and Iraq:
    1. Due to the failures by the Bush and Obama regimes, Iran has taken a firm foothold in both Syria and Iraq and is aiding the Taliban in fighting US Forces in Afghanistan.  Trump’s efforts to degrade Iran’s terror and nuclear programs is a step towards removing Iranian influence in Syria and Iraq via their Revolutionary Guard.  President Trump will have to convince Russia that their continued support of the Assad regime and the Iranian meddling in Syria is not in Russia’s best interest.  The President can assure Putin that the Syrian Mediterranean facilities he controls can be maintained as a Russian “peaceful” facility as long as they maintain their agreements to stand against Assad and Iran.
    2. Convince Russia that their military interventions in Afghanistan and Syria are not in their long-term best interests.  Sound fanciful?  Not really.  Russia is an economic house of cards and Kevin Spacey proved how flimsy that can be!  Russia relies on its oil exports to fund its economy,  The US rising dominance in world energy production is a gun to the head of the Russian economy.  We could export sufficient quantities of LNG and oil to the EU and other western Asian countries who now import these commodities from Russia, and cripple the Russian economy.  Putin is ruthless but not stupid!  Russia could benefit economically if they join the US and the 50+ Sunni Arab nations in an economic and security pact.   If President Trump could convince China to also join such an arrangement, Russia would be hemmed in.
  5. Israel-Palestinian Peace?  The other side benefit of the 50+ Sunni Arab coalition is that it makes the potential for a Middle East Peace agreement more likely.  How?  The Palestinians cannot survive without outside subsidies from the 50+ Sunni Arab Nations!  President Trump can leverage the coalition to pressure the Palestinians to negotiate in good faith with Israel.  This may end up being too good to be true but I don’t think so…

So, President Trump’s Middle East & Terrorism Doctrine can be summarized as:

  • Form a Middle East Coalition with 50+ Sunni Muslim nations.
  • Develop the US energy sources and make the US a net exporter of energy and a dominant player in the world energy market.
  • Use the ME coalition to eliminate terror group funding from Sunni Muslim countries.
  • Work with the ME Coalition to transform their economies and reduce their dependence on oil long-term and empower their citizens to raise their standard of living.
  • Tear up the Iran Nuclear Agreement.  Assumes that Iran does not agree to abandon their nuclear ambitions.  
  • Re-impose Iranian sanctions and choke their economy.
  • Use the ME Coalition to encircle and isolate Iran and force them to denuclearize or face military attacks.  
  • Use the ME Coalition to support dissidents inside of Iran.
  • Use the ME Coalition to pressure the Palestinians to negotiate a Middle East Peace with Israel.
  • Pressure and negotiate with Russia and China to cooperate in Syria to depose the Assad regime and stand up a peaceful Syria without Iranian intervention.  
  • Pressure and negotiate Russia and China to support the ME Coalition as an economic trading partner with the US, Russia and China!

The implementation of this doctrine will not be easy and not without issues and bumps along the way.  But, it recognizes that a Middle East solution must be based on the support of Sunni Arab Nations, Pakistan, and India. 

It recognizes that both Russia and China would benefit economically by a peaceful Middle East.  No nation has really benefitted by supporting military operations in this region to try to establish hegemony in the region.  It would allow the US to “tame” the Taliban if we can checkmate Russian and Chinese interference. 

The irony is that this doctrine is simple and less threatening to the entire region versus the Neocon interventionist policies of the Bush dynasty.  The Clinton, Bush, Obama mess in Iran and Syria is still a threat but hopefully the Coalition can help defuse the Iranian threat to the region and the world.  

If the Trump Middle East Doctrine is successful, the entire world would benefit from the lessening of the constant turmoil of the region; the exporting of terrorism around the world; and a lowering of tensions between the three largest militaries in the world. 

Since 1917, the carving up and control of the Middle East has caused nothing but conflict, destruction, and terrorism.  This doctrine has the potential of wiping out the evils of 1917 and returning the Middle East to its occupants.  Some of the existing national borders may be redefined during this process which will create some tensions.  One such realignment may be the creation of a separate Kurdish nation out of Northern Iraq.  Hopefully when these realignments occur, the Coalition can intervene and negotiate a peaceful transition.   

One can only hope this doctrine succeeds!

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

Hat Tips:

http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2017/11/06/saudi-arabias-dramatic-transformation-continues-weekend-arrests/

 

Gasoline Prices-Oil Companies Vs Consumers-Obama’s Class Warfare

Average Government Taxes on One Gallon of Gasoline:  $0.481/gallon

(This is a national average for taxes.  In Connecticut it is $0.68, New York $0.679, California $0.67)

Oil Company Profits on One Gallon of Gasoline:  $0.07/gallon  (US Operations)

Who is Gouging US!  You got it, Our Government!

Below is information that we posted back in May of 2011.  All of the data is still applicable and some has been updated:

Oil Companies:

I had a Progressive friend who said to me one time that companies had to have a “corporate conscience” when it came to profits and how they act as a “citizen” of a country.  After staring at him for about 10 minutes and calming down considerably, knowing that he was big in the stock market, I asked him, “As a stockholder, what would you do if you owned Exxon stock, and you heard the Chairman of Exxon announce that the company was going to drop oil prices by $40 Billion dollars so they could reduce gas prices at the pump by 20 cents a gallon, and oh by the way, the $40 billion is coming out of what was going to be stockholders dividends!”  He said he would file a class action suit against the company for driving down the stockholder’s share value!  So much for “corporate conscience”!

Big Oil Company profits are large in terms of raw dollars due to the shear size and volume of their gross income.  In reality, Big Oil Companies percent of profits are less than 1/4 that of Microsoft and Apple.  But, Idealogues in Washington and others point to the raw dollar profits instead.  Companies live and die by profits but let’s see just where the money goes.

Q1/2010:  ExxonMobil net profit:  $10.65B

Q1/2010:  ExxonMobil Income Taxes:  $8.0B

Q1/2010:  ExxonMobil Capital Investment:  $7.8B

GENERAL ELECTRIC, A DARLING OF OBAMA HAD A NET PROFIT OF OVER $5B AND PAID ZERO US INCOME TAXES!  In fact, has almost a half a billion in tax credits.

Q1/2011:  Current Profits Per Gallon of Gasoline:

ExxonMobil:  $0.07/gallon  (US Operations)

Local, State and Federal Gas Taxes:  $0.481/gallon

Taxes are 7 times higher than Big Oil Profits per Gallon!

Now, wonder why Washington and the Community Organizer in Chief needs a scape goat?  Who is gouging the consumer?  It gets worse.

Who is limiting the supply of domestic gas and oil.  Come on, guess!  You are right, Washington DC.  Who is killing nuclear development in the US?  You are right, Washington DC.  What is Washington DC doing?  They are going after speculators! 

Speculators are watched us bomb Libya, one of the largest oil producers in the world; they are worried about the Nut Jobs in Iran who we have utterly failed to control over the past 12 years; we are ignoring pleas from Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer, to help quell uprising all over the oil-producing Middle East and North Africa and help to re-establish a stable environment; and now we face a very real threat from world-wide small acts of terror from Al Qaeda with the death of Bin Laden and the ridiculous Koran Burning incident in Afghanistan for which we are apologizing.  All of these external pressures will keep oil prices up as speculators are betting that oil is going to get harder to extract and supply lines will be disrupted.  Would you bet right now that the world is getting more or less peaceful?  Less = Higher commodity prices, period!

At the same time, the US is printing money and raising its debt by leaps and bounds driving the dollar into the financial commode.  This will raise oil prices as well.  The only thing putting downward pressure in oil prices is our government’s incompetence in dealing with the recession that is driving down demand due to more and more Americans fleeing to public assistance due to loss of jobs and opportunities. 

Do I feel sorry for Big Oil and Speculators?   No but I don’t blame them for our woes either.  The blame is squarely in the District of Columbia

  • Maybe drilling won’t solve all of our problems but let’s see just how close to self-sufficiency we can get! 
  • Maybe Shale is not the answer but let’s give it a shot and see if that helps lower our foreign energy dependence. 
  • Maybe build a 20 more refineries so when we have to take one offline for maintenance there is not a 15 cent per gallon spike. 
  • Take a shot at building local smaller and more stable nuclear reactors. 
  • Open Yucca Mountain to store spent fuel rods rather than leaving them and us exposed by having to store them in less safe environments. 

If I was an oil company executive, I would pre-book a flight to Washington DC every 6 months or so to accommodate my semi-annual invitation to testify before congress or the justice department.  2011 will be no exception!  In addition to those nasty OIL COMPANIES who must be investigated and demonized, those nasty SPECULATORS are also bad people who are only looking to stick it to the consumers and they must be investigated and intimidated as well.  Do I like paying $4.50 for Regular Gas?  Hell No!  but do I blame the oil companies or the speculators?  Hell No!  I look in the mirror and say to myself, “YOU JERK, YOU SEND THESE MORONS TO WASHINGTON!  YOU ARE AS MUCH TO BLAME AS ANYONE!” 

Oil is not the only commodity that is demanding a high price; STUPIDITY is actually outpacing the price of crude oil!  Most of the latter is above ground in Washington DC and is cornered by about 536 Congressmen and the President of the United States.  Can we take a deep breath; purge our minds of the insane sound bites from the media and the politicians; and examine two key scapegoats of high gasoline prices?

Speculators Bashing:

Speculators are made up of investment consortiums, individuals, and assorted investors.  All commodities such as oil/gasoline are traded on various exchanges via futures contracts or spot market positions.  Trades are two-sided; for every person buying a contract, someone else is selling a contract.  When there are more buyers than sellers, the buyers “bid up” the price of the contact and the commodity price goes up.  When there are more sellers than buyers, the opposite takes place.  Buyers and sellers are the same, they are neither good or bad.  They are trying to make money either by selling for more than they paid for a commodity or selling short and hoping that the market goes down.  In short, speculators make markets.  Without speculators, there is no market and stock markets, currency markets and commodity markets would cease to exist and we would be back to local bartering. 

Why are Speculators always put up on the Demon Pedestal?  Because they are easy, nondescript bogey men and women.  They don’t exist, you can’t see them; touch them; and their business cards don’t carry the title of “Speculator”.  Politicians always use strawmen to point the finger away from themselves.  This administration takes this to an art form worthy of the great masters.   The bottom line is that speculators cannot directly influence the production of a commodity; directly impact the delivery of a commodity; directly expand the supply of a commodity; directly influence geopolitical events that can impact the price of one or more commodities.  Speculators merely sit on the sidelines and try to guess what the impact will be on the commodity prices from such events.  They, in short, make the market based on external events that they do not control.

2008-SPECULATORS REDUCE RETAIL GAS PRICES

FROM $4.12/GAL TO $1.61/GAL IN 4 MONTHS!

This is absolutely true!  Speculators were the ones that sold down futures until they reduced gasoline prices by $2.51 per gallon.  Were they invited to Washington DC to have Congress marvel at how they were able to reduce the prices so fast and so much?  NOPE!  But Congress was out on a witch hunt 4-6 months earlier trying to find those dirty SOB speculators who were driving gasoline prices up to $4.12/gal!  Did Congress or the President go on TV and praise speculators for their humanitarian efforts to reduce gas prices?  NOPE! 

In short, get the government out of our energy lives so we can live our lives.  Remember some of these facts the next time Obama takes on the Oil Companies.  Or the next time he want to eliminate legitimate tax deductions that oil companies take.  Who do you really think is going to pay the $4B expense deductions Obama is going to eliminate from the oil companies.  Yep.  Look in the Mirror Sucker…  You have been politicized and bamboozled again by a politician.  Class warfare is how they win.  Oil Companies today, drug industry tomorrow, when is it going to be your turn?  It will happen and sooner than you think.

Wake up America

RD Pierini

 Check out this blog:  http://mjperry.blogspot.com/

http://www.commonsensejunction.com/notes/gas-tax-rate.html

Creating a Theocratic Middle East–The Obama Doctrine Unfolds–The Carter Policy Extended

     President Carter, 1980-1984, and Barack Obama share one common goal for the Middle East; 

The overthrow of Western Friendly Nations in the Middle East and Africa, or not,  ruled by monarchs or dictators,

and replace these governments with Islamic Republics.   

     Your first reaction may be that Democrats/Progressives do not believe in a church ran State or even the presence of religion within a State. Au contraire!  They only believe that the Christian religion should have no part in the U.S. Government, our culture, or our public life.  The U.S. and the West should be purely secular.  But, when it comes to the Islamic religion and the Middle East, Africa, Indonesia etc, they are all for creating Theocracies!  This policy is not based on religion but on a hatred for the West’s domination over parts of the world including the Middle East.  Carter and Obama see the installation of these theocracies as a vindication of past Western behavior.  Some also believe that this policy is a measure required to “balance” world power by creating a “Super” Islamic Republic group of aligned nations, Similar to the Euro Zone, that could counter balance Western influence.  They would be united by a common religion, and unfortunately, a common dislike of the West and disdain for all non-Islamic religions. 

The Carter Conversion of Iran-Step 1:

     President Carter successfully abetted the Mullahs in Iran to throw out the Shah, (Mohammad Rezā Shāh Pahlavi) and establish the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979.  Carter could not continue his Middle East theocratic zeal due to the prolonged hostage crisis in Iran which is ironic when you think about it.   The Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini hated the US and thought the US would soon attack Iran in an attempt to take back the country and rescue its hostages.  Little did he know that Carter was more aligned with his new theocracy than he was with rescuing our hostages, let alone take back Iran.  So, Carter could not abet any other overthrow of western friendly Middle East governments in favor of the establishment of Islamic Republics as he was too busy trying to weasel his way out of the hostage crisis without offending the Ayatollah!

The Obama Conversion of Egypt, Libya, Syria-Step 2:

Egypt:

    Egypt was a key State to be converted  as soon as possible to an Islamic Republic and it was no coincidence that Obama used this venue to make one of his more Pro-Islamic speeches of his early reign.  Egypt is critical as it is the most populous Arab nation and is strategically located on the southern border of Israel and controls the Gaza Strip east of the Suez.  Egypt is also one of the few nations in the region who recognized Israel and has had a long-standing peace agreement with Israel dating back to 1979.  Obama’s goal in the region is to force Israel in to accepting suicidal borders where they give up strategic lands on the Gaza, the West Bank and turn back the ancient city of Jerusalem back to the Palestinians.  Egypt is a key chess piece to use to intimidate Israel into these concessions.  Obama may believe that these border changes would foster more peaceful relations in the region, finally give the Palestinians the nation they deserve, or merely eliminate Israel as a nation in the Middle East.  I do not pretend to know Obama’s end game with respect to Israel but Egypt is a key piece

    The conversion of Egypt was easy as all Obama had to do was stir up the Egyptian populous who were not enamored with Mubarak.  Obama knew that the Moslem Brotherhood was a well-organized political faction that could organize the revolt and would serve to step in after the revolt and gain a majority in the new government.  The stated goal of the MB is to plant Islam Regimes throughout the world and especially at home in Egypt.  All Obama had to do is nothing!  Do not step in and try to help in an orderly transition that we could help to control and would foster an outcome that would be in the US long-term interest and help stabilize the region, especially the Egyptian-Israeli relations.  Obama did exactly that, Nothing.  The upcoming elections will see the MB in the majority and it will be a matter of time before the nation adopts a theocratic Islamic Republic banner similar to Iran.  The MB has already vowed to tear up the Egypt-Israeli Peace Agreement and is supporting more terror along the Gaza Border.

Libya:

     No one could figure out what on earth we were doing aiding, and paying for, the attack on Kadaffi and our support for the rebels who were reported to include a sizeable Al-Qaeda force.  The Libyan appeasement all started with the freeing of the Lockerbie Bomber that was released to Libya.  Obama sent messages through the Secretary of State to the British and Scottish governments that the US would not object if this murderer of over 170 US citizens was set free.  This was not done as a favor to Gaddafi, it was to show the Libyan people that the US had changed and supported the “people” over and above our own national interest and the crimes that had been committed against us.  Then, the bombings began after the first of the year and apparently will culminate in the expulsion of Kadaffi sometime within the next 10 days.  Rest assured, with Al-Qaeda and other radical elements, including the MB infiltrating the rebels, it will not be long before an Islamic Republic will be raised up in Libya.  Libya is an import chess piece in the Middle East/North Africa as it supposedly has the 2nd largest oil reserve next to Saudi Arabia.  These resources under Islamic control will further strain the Western supply of oil and weaken our position to negotiate with radical Islamic elements.  In the short-term oil will flow until the rebel government builds up its treasury, then its arsenal.  Then, we have a well armed, well-funded extremist nation less than 100 miles from Sicily, Italy!

Syria:

     Syria may or may not fall as its dictator is also a key “odd couple” partner with Iran.  Iran would like to see Syria become a Shiite Islamic Republic but may settle to have a willing partner in terror for the time being, especially now that Egypt has either been neutralized as an ally of Israel or worse yet an enemy of Israel.  Eventually Syria will have to bend to become an Islamic Republic but it is not critical for the “movement”.  I am not sure Obama and Company see it that way.  If Obama encourages the uprising by leading from way behind like he did in Egypt and does nothing, the revolt may win out.  If there is a successful overthrow of the Assad Regime, and the government is overthrown, that actually may weaken Iran a bit in trying to destroy Israel in 2012-13.  Remember, Syria has a common border with Israel on the North and can easily lob missiles into Israel from there and also continue to control Lebanon to its West.  Lebanon also shares a Northern border with Israel and has used this vantage point to fire rockets and missiles repeatedly into Israel.

Squeezing Israel Out and the Islamization of the Middle Eastern Government-Step 3:

     With enemies to its South, Egypt and the Palestinians; enemies to the North, Syria and Lebanon; Israel will be put into a position to either capitulate to the Obama view of Palestine, that includes expanded Gaza and West Bank borders and control over Jerusalem, or possibly have to attack Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, and the Palestinians.  Whether Obama realizes it or not, the Islamic nations surrounding Israel will not rest until Israel does not exist.  They have no interest in leaving Israel in their region.  So ultimately they will go to war with Israel.  The Arab Nations of the Middle East so Obama as giving them the green light to do whatever they want with Israel.  Obama has snubbed the Israeli Prime Minister, offered very luke warm support for key Israeli issues within the UN, and is pressuring Israel to give into redrawing its borders with suicidal consequences.

     By the end of 2012 and while Obama is still in the White House, what Carter had envisioned but was thwarted by his own incompetence, may come to fruition, the Theocratic takeover of the bulk of the Middle East and North Africa.  Israel will be forever changed as will the West’s relationship to the Middle East and North Africa.  While some may call this justice, others may call it the beginning of Armageddon!

RD Pierini

 

Below is the status of the other Islamic Nations that have already become Islamic Regimes.  Will they remain neutral if a war breaks out between Israel, Egypt, Syria, Iran, Palestine, and Lebanon?

Islamic Republic of Pakistan-1956

  • Has significant nuclear weapons.
  • 6th most populous nation
  • 8th largest army in the world
  • 2nd largest population of Muslims in the world.
  • 27th largest economy in the world.
  • Pakistan is a federal parliamentary republic. 

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan-1992

  • Due to internal strife and external meddling by surrounding countries, the new government never really formed.
  • The Taliban started taking control in 1994 and then ruled from 1996-2001
  • The US attacked Afghanistan in 2001 following 9-11, and effectively ended the Taliban rule.
  • The current government of Afghanistan, (2004) is an Islamic republic consisting of three branches, executive, legislative and judicial, led by its President, Hamid Karzai.
  •  Still remains one of the poorest and least developed nations on the earth.
  • The country has natural resources which may allow it to develop if the Taliban does not take over following US withdrawal.

Islamic Republic of Bangladesh-1972

  •  Bangladesh is a parliamentary democracy with an elected parliament called the Jatiyo Sangshad.
  • 8th most populous countries in the world
  • Partially aligned with India but has close ties with China.
  • Has a fairly sizeable military with 200,000 in their army and 22,000 in their air force.
  • They are very active within the United Nations
  • Its economy is growing and it has a GDP of US$257 Billion per year which is a per capital income of US$641

Islamic Republic of Mauratania-1960

  • West African nation led by several dictators and subject to several coups over its history.
  • Unclear how much influence the religious leaders have in the face of the strong dictators
  • Rich in untapped natural resources but has one of the lowest GDP rates in Africa
  • Population is 3.3 million.

Islamic Republic of Iran-1979

  • The Islamic Republic of Iran is an Islamic theocracy headed by a Supreme Leader, a cleric.
  • Economy is 60% controlled by the government
  • Religious “foundations” make up half of the government
  • $2,770 per capital income in 2005, generally a poor population
  • Currently developing an overt nuclear program that will lead to nuclear weapons capabilities if not checked.

Iran Can Wipe Out Miami Florida with a Missile But we are Chasing Gaddafi Duck?

Iran/Venezuela, The Real Threat

Sound far-fetched?  It isn’t.  Iran (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ) and Venezuela (Hugo Chavez) are thicker than thieves and are cooperating on several military fronts including mutual support for military buildup of conventional and nuclear weapons.  Today, Iran announced that they successfully launched 14 missiles on Tuesday.  Iran’s IRNA announced that they had fired the missiles simultaneously and achieved a range of 1,250 miles.  The missiles that were fired included nine Zelzal missiles, two Shahab-1s, two Shahab-2s and one upgraded Shahab-3 missile.  The IRNA went on to say that IRNA that “…while Iran had the technological capacity to build longer-range missiles, the 2,000-km range had been chosen precisely with Israel and U.S. bases in mind…”  While they did not mention giving missiles to Venezuela, they have already shipped missiles to our South American Neighbor in the recent past.

Couple this with Iran’s relentless pursuit of nuclear weaponry, we have a problem Houston!  Yes, Houston is also within range of the extended versions of Iran’s missile arsenal.  How long do you think it will take them, working with North Korea, who can reportedly reach our West Coast with their missiles, to be able to reach, San Francisco, Dallas, Washington DC, or New York City?

Why Libya?

But, we are hell-bent on taking out Gaddafi Duck in Libya?  We have had literally hundreds of reasons to take out Gaddafi in the past, like the Pan Am Airline Bombing, but we have not.  Why now?  And why can’t Obama get in front of Congress and the American People and explain what we are doing in Libya and why won’t he seek and obtain Congressional Approval?  Is this a sleight of hand to keep us focused on a non threat while he allows Iran to become the nuclear stalemate in the Middle East?  Or, allow Iran to develop nuclear capabilities to the point of threatening Israel thus provoking a war in the Middle East.  These may be far-fetched and conspiratorial but that is what will soon be reality in the Middle East.

Also on the subject of Libya, our warring with Libya is keeping that country from exporting its oil and is helping to drive up gas prices all around the world.  Can’t this administration walk and chew gum at the same time or be able to see that one action can lead to an undesirable reaction?  I guess that since Obama does not think we are engaged in a Kinetic Action in Libya that the impact on gas prices by restricting the flow of oil from that country who has one of the three top oil reserves in the world is non kinetic.  Check the gas prices lately?  They are still just below $4.00 in California…

  • In the meantime, our southern States will soon be vulnerable to attack from Iran’s allies in South America. 
  • Our soldiers in Afghanistan will soon be required to do more with less contrary to the opinions given to Obama by HIS generals.
  • We still don’t have a defined policy for Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, or any other hot spot in the Middle East. 

All we do have is an illegal war being waged in Libya and our President insisting that Israel, our only real ally in the Middle East, cease building their settlements on their own land.

RD Pierini

Arab Path To Peace-Anhiliate Isreal, then their “Protector”, the United States

The Arab League is not generally portrayed in the media as particularly radical since the West had several allies in the Arab League and could count on some degree of moderation by our allies in the internal machinations of the Arab League.  But, the Arab League has always been set against the existence of Israel and has rejected the Post World War II treaties that established the Nation of Israel.  But, when you factor in what the media is referring to as the “Arab Spring”, the list of nations in the Arab League that we counted on as allies or moderators is shrinking rapidly.  We have recently lost our strongest ally, Egypt, with Tunisia, Jordan, Yemen, and Bahrain tacking radical.  Even Saudi Arabia is distancing itself from the US in light of Obama’s snubbing of overtures for support from Saudi Arabia on behalf of Bahrain.  Today, it is unclear just how Saudi Arabia would vote in the Arab League if an up or down vote was taken to sanction an attack against Israel. 

The historically radical elements in the Arab League and the Middle East that include Iran, Syria, Libya (who in 2001 we had neutralized but now will probably end up in the radical camp again due to Obama’s policies) Sudan, Palestinian Authority, Lebanon, and Somalia, also have declared de facto war and hopes of annihilation of the United States and the West in addition to their cries for the annihilation of Israel.  This, if nothing else, should give pause to those who question way we support Israel.  Don’t think for a minute that these same radical nations won’t use oil as a weapon, especially now that India and China have increased their demand and consumption to historically high levels.  Where we are today and why Obama’s Speech was a death wish for Israel and the US and provides the Arabs with a path to their peace by eliminating the US and Israel.

Arab Meeting in Khartoum, Sudan, August 29 to September 1, 1967

Before we review the outcome of this meeting by the Arab League, let’s step back a few months and view some of the events in Israel and the inactions by the UN that set the stage for this meeting of Arab leaders from 8 member nations of the Arab League. 

Prior to the end of the “6 Day War“, Israel did not control all of Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, Sinai, the Gaza Strip, nor the West Bank.  In six days, Israel defeated forces from Jordan, Egypt, Iraq and Syria.  It was a humiliating defeat of these much larger Arab nations and one that confirmed that Israel could not rely on the post WWII treaties that established their right of existence to protect them from their Arab neighbors.  It also cast in stone for the Israelis that control over the Golan Heights, the West Bank, Sinai, the Gaza Strip were vital to their survival. 

The United Nations had once again had proven ineffective in providing peaceful means to avoid this conflict but could only clamor for a cease-fire during the 6 days of combat.  But, they did provide for a cornerstone to be laid regarding the new, post 6 Day War Israeli boundaries.  This resolution has been the key to US foreign policy positions regarding Israel and its neighbors until President Obama came along.  After months of debate, the ineffectual UN finally adopted a resolution providing for:

  • UNSCR 242
    • It anticipates that Israel will withdraw to secure borders in exchange for peace guarantees from the Arab parties.  Note:  there was no mention of the specific borders nor any mandate for Israel to return to Pre-6 Day War boundaries.
    • The resolution was worded in such a way to allow the Israelis to determine what borders would be deemed to provide a secure barrier against its neighboring aggressors.  The resolution stated the “Israel withdraw from “territories””, not specific territories, ie the West Bank, Golan Heights, etc..
    • While the UN resolution was intentionally vague, what it did not say is the key in addition to comments made by the crafters of the resolution.  Lord Caradon, the British Ambassador to the UN at the time, stated:  “It would have been wrong to demand that Israel return to its positions of June 4, 1967, because those positions were undesirable and artificial. After all, they were just the places where the soldiers of each side happened to be on the day the fighting stopped in 1948. They were just armistice lines. That’s why we didn’t demand that the Israelis return to them.” (1) 
    • Arthur Goldberg, our UN Ambassador at the time and a party to the drafting of the resolution stated “..There is lacking a declaration requiring Israel to withdraw from all of the territories occupied by it on, and after, June 5, 1967…”   Clearly the architects of the resolution had no intent to force Israel to withdraw to pre 1967 boundaries.  In fact, the US and Britain defeated several USSR proposals to do just that.

The 6 Day War ended on June 10th, 1967, UNSCR 242 was adopted on November 22, 1967, with the Arab League Meeting in Khartoum in between commencing on August 29, 1967 and concluding with the 3 NOs Resolution, on September 1st, 1967.  The 3 NOs agreement basically stated:

  1. NO peace with Israel
  2. NO recognition of Israel
  3. NO negotiations with Israel

So basically, the antagonists of the 6 Day Warsaid in advance that they would not abide by the UN Resolution in advance of its adoption.  The Khartoum resolution actually weakened the arguments that the USSR tried to make in the UN Security Council against the adopted language in UNSCR 242.  The fact that the Arab League came out with such a blatant antagonistic stance against Israel, left the USSR without any conciliatory bargaining power against the US and Britain.

While almost 45 years have gone by since the 6 Day War, the strategic value of the lands gained by Israel during this conflict have not.  This is especially true of the Golan Heights and the West Bank.  If Israel were to give up the lands gained during the 6 Day War, they would place themselves in an indefensible position.  The City of Natanya would be only 9 miles from a hostile border, the city of Tel Aviv, the capital, would be only 11 miles from a hostile border and the city of Beersheba only 10 miles from a hostile border.  Further, the lands that they would give up are at a much higher elevation than the low-lying areas that would be remaining leaving this narrow remain land subject to easy rocket and mortar attack.  Jerusalem would be divided with the old city, the site of Christian Holy lands, would revert to Arab Muslims.

When Obama tried to stong arm Israel into giving up these lands last week, he was promoting their annihilation.  Once Israel was annihilated, the US and the West would be next.  It is difficult to understand why our media and the left do not believe the words of the Arab-Muslim radicals who are in control of the Middle East and have nuclear weapons, when they call for “Death to America”.  Is this somehow ambiguous or unclear?  Or, do you really think that if we sacrifice the “JEWS”, like we did with Hitler in the 1930’s and 1940’s, that these people who hate us will suddenly like us?  Chamberlain tried that tactic with Germany prior to Hitler’s invasion of Poland, how did that work out for the free world? 

Obama is an ideologue hell-bent on sacrificing Israel in some demented hope that this will make the world all better and that the Muslims around the world will love us and accept Christianity and Judaism (without an Israel) as religions that can coexist with Islam.  Really?

RD Pierini

(1)  http://www.palestinefacts.org/pf_1948to1967_un_242.php

http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Facts+About+Israel/Israel+in+Maps/Jerusalem+Before+the+Six+Day+War+-1949-1967-.htm

http://www.acpr.org.il/ENGLISH-NATIV/04-issue/barder-4.htm

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/news-analysis/a-13-Khartoum2006-03-27-voa47.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_League_Summit#Member_states

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_Arab_League_summit

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War

Abandonment of Israel-The Final Obama Nail in Our Coffin

The completion of our Transformation–Welcome to “Obamaland”

If there was any doubt that Obama had even an inkling of support for Israel, Obama laid that to rest yesterday in his historic speech on the Middle East and Israel.  Obama declared that the policy of the United States was to support the realignment of the Israeli borders along Pre-1967 lines.  Oh Really!  Mr. President, you don’t speak for us.  This may be your personal viewpoint but don’t pretend that you have the support of the majority of Americans on this issue.

Then, to rub salt in the wound he had just inflicted on Israel, he praised the Arab Spring and the transformation of previously moderate Arab States into nations controlled by radical Islamist.  Further, he issued no condemnation of the recent terrorists attacks on Israel by Hamas who controls a major segment of Palestinian Government.  Then, Obama gave away more of our money that we do not have to the Arab Nations who are realigning against Israel and the US.

In short, in one speech, Obama gave the radical Islamist surrounding Israel to annihilate Israel at their will.  Obama made it clear that Israel had the right to defend its borders; Not that the United States would be standing by Israel in defense of their borders.  A total reversal of over 60 years of US policy. 

Obama has now “Transformed” the world according to Obama.  Here are some of the other steps he has taken to transform the world.

  • Egypt:  He turned his back on our ally and allowed the Muslim Brotherhood and other radicals to take over this country.  The MB has stated that the Egypt-Israeli peace agreement is void.  We have lost a powerful ally in the Middle East and one that has the largest single population of the Arab World.
  • Tunisia: He turned his back on our ally and allowed the MB and al Qaeda to take over that government.
  • Saudi Arabia:  He ignored their internal issues with radicals and failed to support the Saudis in support of their neighbor, Bahrain.  Obama has forced Saudi to look for others allies other than the US.
  • Libya:  He has meddled in this country and is setting up an opportunity for Al Qaeda to take over this country from Qadhafi if we eventually figure out how to kill him.  This will complete the line from Egypt, through Libya, to Tunisia that will be controlled by radical Islamist.  Algeria and Morocco are next as the radicals move westward across the northern tip of Africa.
  • Iran:  Obama has sat on his hands, intentionally, to allow Iran to become a nuclear power.  You will then have Iran and Pakistan as two radical Islamist nations with nuclear weapons.  Iran sponsors Hezbollah and Hamas ans will arm them with nuclear weapons against Israel and the US when the time comes.
  • Syria:  Obama has encouraged the “democratic” movement inside of Syria by doing nothing.  Assad is no ally of ours but neither will be the MB/Al Qaeda replacement. 
  • Afghanistan:  It is only a matter of time before we pull out and the Taliban retakes Afghanistan.  We have done nothing to truly clean out the radical elements, we have just ushered them across the border into Pakistan where they will out wait us.
  • Europe:  Obama has personally or diplomatically insulted Great Britain, France, Germany, and Italy and has basically ignored the existence of the UN.  Europe has no idea who we are anymore but they are more and more skeptical of our committment to their security and to our committment in any type of NATO operations.
  • Japan:  Obama has shunned Japan continuously since taking office.  The Chinese have been at the White House more times than the Japanese and when was the last real heart-felt speech Obama has given on the plight of this ally in the wake of the Tsunami?

Basically, Obama had a four prong approach to transforming the world:

  • Support unrest in the entire Middle East in the hopes that these nations would be transformed into Islamic Republics, with the goals of eliminating Israel, choking the oil supply, and destroying the west either with nuclear weapons or by choking off their oil supply. 
  • Freeze out our Western Allies by insulting them, treating them like they do not matter, and ignoring any of their economic, foreign policy, or other suggestions.  The goal is to destabilize NATO so it is not an effective external, intra or inter NATO nations defense organization. 
  • Drive our economy into bankruptcy so we were vulnerable economically and could not quickly recover in the event of an outside threat nor fend off our creditors.
  • Isolate Israel so that its Arab neighbors know that the US will not defend Israel and leave Israel vulnerable to attack from all sides.

He has completed the circle.  We have a totally destabilized Middle East.  At least two of our enemies in the Middle East have nuclear capabilities (Pakistan may be our ally to some degree but if they are taken over by the radical elements this will be short-lived).  Our Wester Allies are thoroughly confused by our LEAD FROM BEHIND posture so they have been neutralized.  And finally, Israel is now in a high alert against possible attack that only heightens the possibility of an all out Middle East war.  One that would see Russia and China align with the Arab nations so solidify their hold on the Middle East.  Then…  Bye, Bye oil supply overnight!  Obama and the Chevy Volt win except you still need energy to charge that ridiculous car.

Obama’s dream of an oil free US; a US dominated by others; a US thoroughly humbled as a prior imperialistic nation; and a US that is basically a debtor, begging nation in search of assistance from our enemies.  Welcome to Obamaland…  It is no Disney World.

Some time back I wrote an article questioning whether Obama was merely inexperienced and incompetent or an ideologue.  I am convinced that he is an idealogue with the sole aim of taking this country down to a world position of mediocrity.

Wake up America…

RD Pierini

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13450481

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/05/19/20110519obama-mideast-aid-funds.html

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/144338

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110520/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_obama_mideast

Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad May Set our Oil Supply/Price! What Are We Doing?

     Arguably the biggest nut-job on the face of this earth, rivaled only by Charlie Sheen and Colonel Gaddafi, may be in charge of our gas price destiny!  WOW, THAT IS REALLY GOOD NEWS!  This is due to Iran currently holding the Presidency of OPEC and Ahmadinejad is forcing their normal representative to the back of the bus.  Also, who is going to represent Libya?  Their Oil Minister has left for Tunisia!  Guess he didn’t like us bombing him!  So, the two biggest OPEC political rivals, Saudi Arabia, who is not all the keen on us anymore after Obama snubbed them repeatedly, and Iran are going to square off at the next OPEC conference on June 8th in Vienna.  Any bets on the outcome?  Do you think we will be better off?

     In the absence of any coherent foreign policy by the US, these nut jobs all over the world will dictate our future.  Obama’s “Leading From Behind” policy is seen as inane by those who like us and a great opportunity by those that don’t.  So far the “Arab Spring” has cost us the support of Tunisia, Egypt, the alienation of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and other key middle east nations.  Many are being taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood who Obama’s chief intelligence officer does not see as any real threat! 

     I guess this administration thinks it is safe since none of us can afford the gas to drive to Washington DC and protest!  In fact, with food prices going up so fast, even if we did, we would starve to death after we arrived! 

     It is sad to watch years of hard work, building this country to the point where it could be the protector and benefactor to the world, only to see it ripped apart by idealogues who wish to destroy the greatness of the United States and what it has stood for.  In its wake will emerge such moral giants as Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and an Islamic Egypt.  Welcome to Obama’s new world order….

RD Pierini

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/345902e2-817a-11e0-9c83-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1MkypRNYv