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Afghanistan/Pakistan/Indian/South Asia Challenge-The Trump Doctrine

Image result for trump doctrine

The Trump Afghanistan/Indian Sub Continent/South Asia Doctrine:

Last night, August 21/2017, President Trump outlined his Afghanistan foreign policy plan as part of his Afghanistan/Indian Subcontinent/South Asia foreign policy.  He has been asking his advisors for months “What does winning in Afghanistan look like”?  Trump drilled down on the result first, forcing his advisors to start with the conclusion then working a strategy to achieve that result…  He kept questioning their approaches until he was able to formulate a foreign policy that may achieve a result that benefits United States self-interest.  What has evolved is a doctrine that seeks to bring together a real diverse, and challenging “coalition” of disparate interest and nations.

Strategic Change:  Afghans Determine their Future

Inside of Trump’s address, was the notion that the US has no interest in defining the political self-governance structure of Afghanistan.  GW Bush and the Neo-Cons had the goal of establishing a western-style democracy over a country that is absolutely tribal in nature, with war lords as their overseers, with no experience in self-governing other than within the tribe.  This concept was doomed for failure at the outset especially when you add in the fact that these peoples were Muslim.  Islam has its own inherent governance structure.

Afghanistan is NOT a country made up of homogenous ethnic peoples with the same self-interests or even share any historical commonality.  There are 8 major ethnic groups within the current Afghan borders that were defined in the late 1800’s and early 1900’s by the British, Russia, and China.  The resulting “country” was basically a corral around a many peoples, most of which knew little or nothing about the other.  The map below will give you an idea of how disparate the ethnic make-up of Afghanistan is.

Image result for afghanistan pakistan taliban map 2016

Don’t make the mistake and try to draw a comparison to our republic that is made of 50 States.  The closest US analogy would be if the Christopher Columbus had drawn a line around the US and told all of the tribes of native peoples (Indians) and island dwellers, that they had to be subservient to Washington DC (I know it did not exist in 1492).  Further, that they had to vote for the central government leadership!  It is pretty amazing how clueless our own leadership is!

President Trump recognized that for the US to try to superimpose a central government over Afghanistan is a fool’s folly.  He stated point-blank that he has no interest in meddling in the Afghans governance.  While this one message is subtle, it is key to recognize that an Afghan western-style democracy cannot be a criteria for success!

Primary Success Criteria:  Eliminate Terrorist Haven in Afghanistan

President Trump stated that there are 20 separate terrorist groups in Afghanistan and in Pakistan.  His number one success criteria is the elimination of terrorist organizations from Afghanistan and allowing the terrorist organization from reconstituting in Pakistan.  Period!  

This is not simple and contains many tactical changes to give this a fighting chance.  Trump stated he will incorporate changes to achieve this goal:

  1. Rules of Engagement:  The President stated that he will take off the restraints on our commanders and soldiers and allow them to fight to win.  This will include the elimination of having embedded LAWYERS making the decision as to whether a soldier can fire on someone planting an IED!  How stupid is it to read a terrorist his “Miranda Rights”!  Further, that in-field tactical decision-making will not require approval from Washington and that the Military command will be empowered to take the fight to the criminals and terrorist, this is critical that we fight both, and eliminate them as a threat.  
  2. Focus on the Fight:  The US will no longer be in the business of nation building.  Our troops will no longer be building roads and buildings but focused on killing terrorist.  Period.
  3. Eliminate Cross-Border Safe  Havens:  The President also said that they will pressure Pakistan, apply real pressure and not just lip service, to not object to the US bombing terrorist havens inside of the Pakistan border with Afghanistan.  Today, the terrorist scurry across the border and we do not pursue them.  Trump will use our aid to Pakistan and other economic incentives to coerce the Pakistan Government to cooperate with the US.  He will also seek to isolate their nuclear weapons even more to ensure they do not fall into the hands of the terrorists.
  4. Stalemate China:  China has been a long-term player in both Afghanistan and Pakistan and are close neighbors with the former sharing a small border with China.  China has also been instrumental in the nuclearization of Pakistan!   The US will have to put pressure on China to keep them from interfering in our efforts to work with Pakistan to eliminate the terrorist from the region.
  5. Stalemate Russia:  The old Soviet Union bordered Afghanistan and had long sought to take over the Afghan mineral deposits.  Since the Progressive Left has interfered with Trump’s ability to work with Russia on Syria and other common issues, it will be difficult for the President to stalemate Russia.  That said, Trump will do everything he can to insure that Russian arming of the militants is minimized.  Russia shares many of our concerns for militant Islam and hopefully Trump will be able to overcome the “Russia Fever” that the left has created in our country.
  6. All Out War:  Trump will also wage a war to win and focus less on pressures to fight a “gentlemen’s war”.  He has already increased bombings by over 182% since taking office.  He will use special forces, air power, cyber, and increase commitments from NATO and other allies.  He may run into some resistance from some NATO allies as he talks the gloves off.  The French, for example, don’t like to fight at night!  Amazing.  Trump will also push the envelope in terms of pure fire power using even more MOABs to get the attention of the Terrorists.
  7. Engage the War Lords:  Trump’s team recognizes the role the regional war lords play in running Afghanistan.  Trump will have to prevail on them to cease sheltering and aiding any of the terrorists.  If he can persuade them that the US is not supporting a centralization of an Afghan government and allow the war lords to have a larger role in Afghanistan’s future, he may win most of them over.

Second Success Criteria:  Reduce the US Financial Commitment

Trump was subtle in his speech to enlist more financial support from Afghanistan, NATO and even India!  He is focused on $$$ and the US need to get others to help foot the bills that benefit others as well as the US.  He will probably tell Tillerson that he will take care of this part of the diplomatic effort!

  1. Afghanistan Financial Support:  Remember Trump talking about the Iraq war and that we should have “taken” some of the oil as repayment for our economic commitment to “liberating” Iraq?  Well, Afghanistan’s mineral and gemstone wealth is estimated at 1-3 Trillion dollars and include: barite, chromite, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, natural gas, petroleum, precious and semi-precious stones, salt, sulfur, talc, zinc, emerald, lapis lazuli, red garnet and ruby.  Trump will probably seek to bring in international companies to help Afghanistan develop these resources and use part of the proceeds to offset our costs in the war effort.  Trump will also have to replace Afghanistan’s largest cash crop, poppies for opioid sales, with other sources of income for the war lords.   This change is needed to help rid the world markets of cheap opioids.  
  2. NATO:  Trump will ask NATO to increase their financial and military commitment to the Afghan Terrorist War as well.  NATO has already stated that they approve of the Trump Doctrine in South Asia and are open to discussions moving forward.
  3. India:  India is an interesting inclusion into the increased economic support for fighting terrorist in Afghanistan.  First of all, India is not a Muslim majority country and is in fact the home of the Sikhs who are enemies of the Muslims.  India would love to see the US exert more pressure on Pakistan as the two are also enemies in both religion and politics.  A more stable South Asia would benefit India and allow it to focus even more on its economic development and somewhat less on national defense.  The President seeks to pressure India, via its trade advantage with the US, to have India supply economic aid in Afghanistan in various forms.  At best, this will challenge even Trump’s “Art of the Deal” skills.  The overall alliance will include Muslims (both Sunni and Shia), Hindu, Sikhs, and a handful of others!  The alliance does, however, form a solid base for a true South Asia policy that includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Indian sub continent.  (May be easier than repealing Obamacare in Congress though)

The goals of the strategic change in Afghan self-determination, the defeat of terrorism in Afghanistan and to some degree Pakistan, and the Cost-Sharing goals to reduce US economic commitment to Afghanistan, define Trump’s success in Afghanistan.  If this succeeds with this “odd” alliance of players, it will have long-standing benefits in South Asia and help to stabilize a Post-Soviet South Asia.  If we do not succeed according to a time-table only Trump knows, we may pull out of Afghanistan sometime in the future.

There are many other facets of this doctrine that will be fleshed out in the coming months.  Trump will let the Generals and the troops do their jobs but will keep pressure on Mattis and his staff to keep their eye on the ball.  He will also make sure the Treasury is doing all they can to cut off the supply of funding to the terrorist and keep other cabinet members contributing in any way they can to assist the fight.  Rex Tillerson has a difficult job of keeping the coalition together while maintaining stability in Pakistan and elsewhere.  No small task.

Observation:  One thing to look for that will differentiate this campaign from our past feeble efforts to rid Afghanistan from Terrorist is a cessation of warfare during the winter months.  I would hazard a guess that Trump will seek to keep the terrorist from relaxing during the winter months with a series of asymmetrical attacks by land and air.  Sleep deprivation can be a demoralizing factor for sure…

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

Hat Tips:

http://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/boundaries-iii

http://afghanag.ucdavis.edu/country-info/culture-and-working-locally/Man_Afghan_Culture_CWTI.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Pakistan

 

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The Multi-Faceted Intent of the Syrian Strike-America First!

Trump: And You Thought I Was Kidding!

Are you confused whether Trump’s bombing of the Syrian airbase over Assad’s use of chemical weapons is:

  • a contradiction of his campaign promises;
  • or whether Trump is now a Neo-Con who believes in Nation Building;
  • or has the President simply let his left leaning advisors to con in him to attacking Syria? 

Well, none of the “conventional wisdom” is right and certainly the main stream media (MSM) is clueless as are most of the Republican insiders, Never Trumpers, right-wing isolationists, or self-professed “Conservatives”!

Did Trump know that he would be tested by the world’s bad actors early in his presidency.  ABSOLUTELY. 

  • Syria:  Did he know that Syria would use chemical weapons to test him?  He probably had a test by Syria on his watch list of possible provocations as well as the following:
  • North Korea:  The President probably had a provocation by NoKo on his short list of potential tests.
  • Iran:  The President certainly had Iran on his short list of bad actors and potential provocateurs.
  • Russia:  The President probably did not think that Putin would come at the US directly but use one or more of his partners-in-crime, Iran or Syria.
  • China:  The President probably did not consider China a source of a military challenge due to our mutual need for trade and other common interests in the region.

Trump had contingency plans in place for all of the “A” list of bad actors and their possible provocative actions.  Trump had a bucket full of escalation options for retaliation short of all out war or troop invasion.  Trump also knew that if his retaliation was decisive enough he could use it to stalemate the rest of the bad actors.

What did President Trump Accomplish by Bombing Syria?

All of the potential threats from the bad actors were not necessarily negated but he certainly gave all of them pause.  Further, the two military powers who use surrogates to test the US, Russia and China, were put on notice that the US would not tolerate threats to the US or stand idly by if weapons of mass destruction were used in combat. 

What were the messages sent by Trump and received by the bad actors?

China:  The US needs China to either act directly against North Korea’s nuclear program or at least not oppose action by the US to do so.  The timing of the bombing was especially helpful as President Xi was concurrently meeting with President Trump.  The timing of the bombing and the meeting was perfect as Trump’s words about dealing with North Korea if China would not was backed by his action against Syria.  China now knows that what President Trump says is what he means.  He is not necessarily diplomatic but he certainly says what he means, period.

North Korea:  IF NoKo had a rational leader, which they do not, the Syrian bombing and China’s support of our policy of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula should give the North Korean leadership pause.  It is doubtful that the NoKo leadership is neither rational nor well advised.  NoKo will probably continue to test their nuclear weapons and delivery systems.  China just moved 120,000 troops to their border with North Korea to prevent refugees from NoKo to come into China if the US moves to take out the NoKo nuclear program.  Action by the US is imminent.  Unfortunately, there is really no other option for the US vis-à-vis the denuclearization of the of the Korean Peninsula.  We are probably looking at days, not weeks or months. 

Iran:  Iran will probably adopt a take a “look-see” posture for the time being and not directly take any action against the US.  They will pound their chests and condemn the US but what else is new.  They will oppose any diplomatic efforts to depose his ally, Assad.  But, Iran now knows that Trump will continue to ratchet up sanctions and financial transaction scrutiny.  They now know that what Trump says he will do. 

Syria:  Assad is not as nutty as North Korea but he could retaliate against US troops in Syria fighting ISIS.  THIS IS ONE OF THE PRIMARY REASONS TRUMP HIT SYRIA FOR USING CHEMICAL WEAPONS AS THESE WEAPONS COULD HAVE BEEN USED AGAINST US TROOPS.  IN FACT, I BELIEVE THAT THE ATTACK ON THE CIVILIANS WAS A DRY RUN TO SEE IF TRUMP WOULD REACT.  IF HE HADN’T, ASSAD WOULD BE EMBOLDENED TO USE THESE WEAPONS AGAINST US TROOPS IN SYRIA.  Syria will probably let Russia try to fend off the US and world-wide negative opinion until such time Assad is viewed as a liability to Putin.

Russia:  Putin apparently received the message sent by Trump that Obama is no longer in charge.  Trump stalemated Putin’s advances in the Middle East and probably Eastern Europe.  Putin is now assessing what Trump is and what he represents to the future of Russia.  IF Putin is smart, he will seek to get an agreement with Trump to keep his access to the Syrian naval ports and seek to transition Assad out of power.  This will not be simple nor easy especially since the Alawites (Assad’s Shia group) will want to maintain power over Syria and its 90% Sunni population.  Further, Iran sees Syria as key to their march towards dominating the Middle East with a Shia coalition of Iran, Syria and Afghanistan. 

United Nations:  President Trump and his Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, sent a strong message to the UN, and its members, that they are no longer relevant to the US, or the world, in determining US policy.  We will take an issue to them as a matter of courtesy but our decision is based on America First and we will not wait for the Security Council to act, nor not.   This is accentuated by President Trump cutting the US budget to the UN which is long overdue. 

NATO:  During the campaign candidate Trump made it clear that members of NATO would have to meet their financial obligations AND modernize and emphasize Counter Terrorism if they are to remain relevant and supported by the US.  Message received and backed up by decisive action by the US in Syria.  Too bad the other NATO nations did not initiate the reaction against Syria but perhaps they will be emboldened to do so in the future as they have post-Trump bombing of Syria.

The Aftermath:

So, while 59 Tomahawks and 59,000 pounds of explosives at a cost of $88,500,000 may not be considered by some as significant and others as over-kill, we probably saved over the $88,500,000 in costs for flights, hotel rooms and meals for overstuffed diplomats sitting around a table wringing their hands trying to figure out what to do about Syria, Iran, North Korea, ISIS, and Russia.

Trump planted our flag once again in the sacred ground referred to as the international community.  Time will tell the extent of the fall-out from Trump’s actions but there is no doubt that his action resulted in

“MESSAGE SENT-MESSAGE RECEIVED”.

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

 

Syria-What Will Be the Outcome?

Who Will Be the Winners?

Who Will Be the Losers?

syria-2011-2015

In merely 4 1/2 years, the status and toll of this conflict varies by source but the Syrian Centre for Policy Research (SCPR) estimates that 11.5%, of the Syrian population has been killed or wounded.  They estimate that 470,000 men, women and children have been killed since 2011 while the United Nation estimates this number to be 250,000, but the UN stopped estimating casualties 18 months ago.  11 million of the 18 million Syrians have lost their homes.   The number of wounded has been estimated at 1,900,000.  Destruction to Syria itself is estimated to be over quarter of a Trillion dollars. Regardless of the actual numbers, this conflict has been catastrophic to Syria and its people.   

Who Are the Good Guys?

Or, are there any good guys in this conflict?  Go back to 2011 when the “Arab Spring” sprung and was blessed by the Obama regime.  Inside of Syria, “pro-democracy” dissident groups began fighting back against the Assad Syrian Government and this soon erupted into a nation-wide conflict as Assad cracked down on the dissidents.  To this day I doubt anyone truly knows who or what the dissidents are.  

To understand the Syrian conflict, you need to understand that Assad and the government are Alawite Shia Muslims and the dissidents are primarily Sunni MuslimsFurther, Assad has been tightly aligned with Iran with both being supported by Russia!  So, you have the Assad Syrian Government, Iran (via Hezbollah), and Russia on one side, with the primarily Sunni dissidents on the other.

But, with Obama’s and Clinton’s precipitous withdrawal from Iraq, a vacuum was created that was filled by the newly formed Sunni Islamic State (ISIS).  ISIS and Iran both want to dominate and control the rich resources of Syria and Iraq.  So, ISIS secured large regions of Syria from the Assad Government and set up the capital of their “Caliphate” in Raqqa, Syria!  So, now you have ISIS and the dissidents fighting against Assad, Iran, and Russia!  But, ISIS and the dissidents are not aligned and ISIS forces or kills dissidents who do not swear allegiance to their caliphate.  To make it even more complicated, the Kurds occupy much of northern Syria and Southern Turkey and they don’t like anyone particularly!  The map below shows how Syria has been carved up by each group.

 

mapThe bottom line is that there may not be any “good guys” in this conflict, just a bunch of guys fighting for their own self interests!

Where Does the US Fit In?

Depends!  From Obama’s perspective, the US has two goals.  First goal, don’t cross the Iranians.  Two, act like you are fighting ISIS.  The first goal became evident when Obama penciled in his Red Line regarding Assad’s use of chemical weapons.  Obama/Clinton were told in no uncertain terms that the Iranian nuclear talks were over if Obama intervened in Syria against Assad.  So, Obama/Clinton took out their Red Line Eraser and we bowed again to the Ayatollahs in Iran.  The second goal included arming the dissidents to a low-level so the dissidents could fight ISIS on the ground.  Of course the dissidents took shots at Assad’s army as they were actually the primary dissident target and both the dissidents were Sunni.  Some believe that the CIA annex in Benghazi was a front for moving arms from Libya to the Syrian dissidents.  Obama/Clinton mixed using the dissidents and air strikes against ISIS to show the American public that he was fighting against ISIS in both Syria and Iraq.

From the Neo-Con perspective, the US needs to intervene on behalf of the dissidents as all freedom fighters who want democracy are good and deserve our help to whatever degree possible, including armed intervention!  You heard Senators McCain and Graham on talk shows the past 4.5 years demanding that we back the dissidents.  McCain even met with some of them in Syria.  The Neo-Cons would have the US engage directly in the Syrian conflict with the dual goals of removing Assad from power and killing off ISIS.  Whoa!  Assad is backed by Iran and Russia and to a lesser degree, China.  What the Neo-Cons are advocating are at least a 4 power war over Syria!  The Assad regimes have ruled Syria since 1971, why now?

From a US Self-Interest perspective today, the horse is out of the barn; the train left the station; and any other cliché you want to use to describe a situation in Syria that is only a Lose-Lose for the US.  Obama’s and Clinton’s lack of action early on removed all US options in this country, if we ever had any, other than all out war with Russia, Iran and Syria.  The fact is that since Obama/Clinton abandoned Iraq with his rapid pullout, Iraq will most likely align with Iran.  The majority in both countries are Shia and Iran has coveted Iraq in order to create a three state power consisting of Syria, Iraq and Iran.  They will then look towards Lebanon, Jordon and Israel for additional conquests. 

In Syria, we have put up with an Assad regime in power, aligned with Russia and Iran, for over 45 years.  It makes no sense from a national self-interest to engage the Assad regime in Syria.  We do have a national self-interest in annihilating ISIS and that interest is shared by Syria, Russia, Iran and Iraq. 

Trump Is Right in Syria:

You may not like Donald Trump but he is dead right on Syria.  We have a national self-interest in removing ISIS from Iraq and Syria but no self interest in removing Assad from power.  The shame of it all is that we lost countless lives, many of our soldiers were gravely wounded in the war in Iraq, and we spent trillions of dollars for naught.  Iraq also suffered casualties ranging upwards of 250,000 including both military and civilians.  To walk away is a shame on both the Bush and Obama/Clinton administrations.  Bush should not have left the status of forces agreement up to Obama/Clinton and Obama/Clinton should not have walked away from Iraq without a solid SFA with Iraq.  But, we did and we need to cut our loses and get out after taking our ISIS.

Lesson? 

History repeats itself if we do not learn from our mistakes.  We failed politically, not militarily, in Vietnam and in Iraq.  We may have to add Afghanistan if we keep up our current politically correct engagement.  We need to learn to lead from strength, engage when our national-interests are jeopardized, and walk away when it is not our fight.  There will always be bad guys and we will always have to stand strong against them.  But, to pick fights when we are not threatened or do not have the will to win politically, like Iraq and Vietnam, it will always end in failure. 

If you get a chance, read or peruse Sun Tzu’s the Art of War, written 500 years BC.  It is still a good “rule book” for fighting a war today.   (http://suntzusaid.com/)

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

Hat Tips:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-u-tensions-spill-over-u-n-meeting-011240631.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/11/report-on-syria-conflict-finds-115-of-population-killed-or-injured

http://suntzusaid.com/

Trump-ISIS and America First

Trump Has Put Forth Several Different Components of

Fighting the War On Terror (1)

 

Section 1

This article consists of two sections.  The first will lay out the terrorism issues and the second, the Trump policies to counteract the terror threat.  This article is a little long but the need to be as comprehensive as possible to lay out the problem, then the solution, makes it necessary.

War On Terror Is Not Just An ISIS Problem:

While Trump has kept the defeat of ISIS as his top priority in waging the war on terror, he and his security team have referenced the broader group of Islamists that include Al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, Boko Haram, and others.  They have more broadly discussed the issue of Radical Islam as supported by Islamists.  ISIS is at the forefront as it is the closest known direct threat to the US and Europe.  The other groups are no less lethal and threaten Central African and Middle Eastern countries.  Hamas and Hezbollah are really state sponsored terror groups funded in a large part by Iran.  In that vein, Trump views Iran as a major antagonist in the war on terror as well as a global nuclear threat that resulted from the Obama Iran Nuclear agreement.

A Trump administration would view Radical Islam as the enemy regardless of their self-described sect or moniker.  Further, with this view, the war on terror is not isolated to one or more radical Islam groups, but rather is inclusive of all of the groups and solutions have to address the concept of radical Islam rather than the more tactical view of ISIS alone.

Terror MatrixWar On Terror Matrix (Partial, For Illustration Only)

Tentacles of Terrorism:

On the right hand side of the graphic shown above, there is a column titled “Tentacles of Terrorism.  The list includes 9 items but it should be noted that the list is actually quite longer and nuanced.  But, for purposes of this article, this list will provide a springboard for discussion.  (The Taliban is excluded from this discussion as they are locally focused and semi-governmental in nature.)  

Command and Control:

In the past, command and control within terror groups have consisted of a dispersed group of leaders communicating with one another in any way they could devise.  They did not have bases of operations where synchronized planning and communications could take place.  Some of their communications involved the releasing of video tapes by terrorists like Osama bin Laden and his key followers.  

ISIS has broken that mold and seems to have much of its centralized command and control in the Syrian city of Al-Raqqah.  They are establishing sub C&C centers in Iran, Libya and other expansion areas.  ISIS has also broken out and disbursed C&C to local cells such as the one in Brussels.  ISIS has also mastered a new paradigm of creating what has been erroneously called lone wolf actors.  These are not lone wolf actors that act out based on their own motivations.  A better description would be Decentralized Islamic Radicals (DIR).  

These individuals and small groups have become radicalized through the ISIS internet propaganda campaigns.  Just as non-state sponsored terrorism was created so nations could not retaliate against nations, the newly created DIR terrorists are an attempt to eliminate the need for direct contact to train, motivate, and execute despicable terror acts.  Al-Qaeda attempted to create this form of terror in the early 2000’s but were not as successful as ISIS has been.  AQ also was more focused on large-scale attacks whereas ISIS sees any form of terrorism as meeting their objectives of domination through fear.

This category of terrorist may be the most difficult to detect and stop as the campaign has been designed to take advantage of surveillance protocols in the US and Europe.  By remaining under the radar of normal surveillance via covert or non electronic communication, they can plan and execute with a high degree of anonymity.  In the San Bernardino and Orlando attacks, it was not until long after the attacks did we learn that the radicalization of the perpetrators took place over an extended period of time.  Further, our current tracking protocols are totally incapable of creating an effective prevention regime.  NSA surveillance will not yield much information to prevent these types of attacks.

Operational Organization:

Operational organization includes not only a hierarchical management team, but financial, military, cyber, asset, and terror export management.  AQ started with a tightly controlled management team with Osama Bin Laden at the top.  As international pressure was applied, their leadership dispersed and they became a less centralized organization.  Hezbollah and Hamas basically are tightly controlled from Iran.

ISIS has created a hybrid form of operational organization.  The centralized governance is located in Al-Raqqah with disbursed “subsidiaries” in Iran, Libya and elsewhere.  The DIR groups basically give ISIS a totally decentralized and distributed form of cell management that can operate with or without communication or funding from Al-Raqqah.

Financial Operations:

AQ, Hamas, and Hezbollah and others have relied to a large degree on funding from nation states and individuals who are sympathetic to their war on the West.  This funding has been subsidized by criminal activities such as “Kidnapping and Ransom (KNR)” and other such activities.  Hamas and Hezbollah are principally financed by Iran and Syria whereas Saudi Arabia was a major contributor to AQ and other terrorist organizations. 

ISIS has added a new twist to its terrorist financial operations.  ISIS captures oil and banking assets and turns them into cash flow to support ongoing operations.  While this is a “fragile” arrangement, as these operations are exposed either physically or via banking transactions, they have allowed ISIS to be self-sufficient financially.  Also, their use of DIR terror, basically makes a lot of their terror operations virtually free! 

Military Operations:

Typically, terror organizations consider tactical strikes of terror, even 9-11, as military operations.  Traditionally we have defined military operations as an organized effort to take and control geographical areas, regions, or even nations.  This definition fits the ISIS operation but not most other terror groups.  ISIS has invaded and taken control of areas in Iraq, Syria and Libya but are moving into central Africa and other areas in the Middle East.  Much of their arms and equipment were “confiscated” from weaponry and assets left behind by the US!  ISIS military operations appear to be centrally controlled through their headquarters in Syria.  ISIS military operations are both sophisticated and fairly well self-financed.  This gives ISIS a military and terror component that heretofore has not be pursued by most terror groups.

Cyber Operations:

Due to technological advancements in recent years, the use of the internet, hacking, and other cyber activities have been adopted by terror organizations.  The dark internet has provided an area of communications that is difficult to track and police effectively.  Facebook, Twitter and other mass use applications provide a vehicle for terror groups to communicate, recruit and train followers.  Their use of hundreds of temporary accounts have made it impossible to shut down or track a lot of its usage.

Since the birth of ISIS is a fairly recent phenomena, they were early adopters of technology to recruit and train their military operations and DIR cells.  The Obama administration erroneously refers to those recruited, radicalized and deployed via these Cyber tools as “lone wolves”.  This is totally masking the danger and effectiveness of ISIS to perform their outreach and radicalization on citizens of any nation, making the tracking of these would be terrorists difficult if not impossible. 

Cyber hacking also allows terror organizations disrupt or intercept banking, security, and intelligence information and can even be a lucrative source of revenue.  The larger concern is that terrorist organizations will develop either a nuclear or non-nuclear Pulse Bomb (EMP) that is deployable via a drone!  This could be used to wipe out computers and communications in very large metro areas.  This is particularly worrisome following our ill-advised Iranian Nuclear agreement.  Between Iran and N. Korea, neither would have any hesitation deploying this technology and they would probably opt for the nuclear variety in order to maximize the damage.   Cyber terror will continue to grow until governments take a much more aggressive approach to eliminate this threat.

Exporting Terror Operations & Cells:

ISIS has taken the exporting of terrorism to a whole new level.  Al-Qaeda attempted to accomplish this but were primarily successful in underdeveloped areas without a lot of counter-terror security.  ISIS has deeply penetrated the west, especially the European Union (EU) nations, with their terror network.  They have taken advantage of the dark-net and social media to recruit, train and deploy “lone” terrorists described above as DIRs.  It is simplistic to label these individuals as lone terrorists as you will miss the key point which is how they were created in the first place!  ISIS created them, indoctrinated them, and gave them the emotional strength to carry out acts of terrorism. 

Terror Exported-Europe:

The EU has blindfolded itself and tied at least one of their own hands behind their backs as a result of their open borders and Syrian refugee immigration programs…  They have brought in millions of immigrants from countries who have supported or allowed terrorists to prosper.  ISIS has taken advantage of both programs and has many supporters throughout the EU.  ISIS is also recruiting more each day as the EU has failed to integrate many of these immigrants which has created Muslim ghettos where hatred of the West and continued radicalization is nurtured and allowed to mature into dangerous terror cells.   The EU and the individual countries’ no-gun policies have exacerbated the vulnerability of their own citizens.  The key question is whether the EU has tipped past a point of no return! 

BREXIT Note:  It should be noted that the upcoming referendum in the UK, that will decide whether the UK remains in the EU or be independent of that organization, could be critical to the future of both the EU and the UK.  It is my opinion that if the UK stays in the EU, that the decline of Europe will continue on its current accelerated pace.  All of Europe will eventually be overrun with immigrants, many of whom support Sharia and a great number who have become radicalized.  If the UK breaks away, it may provide incentive for some of the other members of the EU to depart the union or at the very least challenge the highly unpopular mass immigration policies of Brussels.  The UK then could also become a base of strength that is not hamstrung with the woes that are besetting the rest of Europe and may eventually be the military base that “liberates” the mainland!  Déjà vu all over again!  This time, however, fascism would have been imported by their own actions and not a result of a foreign nation’s invasion…

Terror Exported-US:

During the Obama administration, one million additional Muslim immigrants have entered the US will little or very shallow vetting.   Obama is also increasing the Syrian Refugee immigration with the same porous level of vetting.  A recent survey in the US among our Muslim population found that 50% of the current Muslim population support Sharia Law over the US legal system.  While many of our past Muslim immigrants have assimilated into our population, many of the more recent immigrants have not.  This is especially true of many of the central African immigrants. 

While the US is a little better off in terms of harboring radical terrorists, it is not too far behind.  If current levels of immigration from these sources continue and allowed to expand, we will quickly be at a tipping point in the US as well.  We have already seen ISIS terrorists engage in mass killings in San Bernardino and Orlando.  These will continue to grow in numbers and frequency as the current administration is incapable of dealing with Radical Islamic Terrorism as a concept, let alone a reality!

Section 2

Enter Donald J. Trump

The Trump Anti-Terror Policy (1)

Donald Trump, his surrogates and foreign policy team have all discussed various components of a Trump Anti-Terror Policy.  While many details remain to be filled in, it is possible to formulate a structured overall policy based on these discussions. 

Terror Defense

The graphic shown above contains 9 separate components of the Trump war on terror.  These components may have multiple targets such as ISIS, Al-Qaeda, while others may be more specific.  One purpose of this graphic is to show that an effective war on terrorism is not a simple strategy and has many components and moving parts!  It should be noted that the next administration is some 210 days away and the situation on the ground will obviously change somewhat between now and then.  The actual ground situation could alter the tactical deployment of various strategies.  Also, the matrix shown above contains several components many of which will have to be implemented simultaneously.   Below is an overview of what may shake out as the Trump war on terror policy.

Military Intervention:

We all understand warfare where ground troops, air strikes and other combat tactics are deployed.  In the case of terrorism, the military strategy will include various strategies and tactics depending on the terror organization and the geographic area that has been impacted.  For purposes of this article, the focus will be on military operations against ISIS.

ISIS Syria:

A key to defeating ISIS will be the destruction of its command and control center in Al-Raqqua, Syria.  This effort will require at least 3,000 special operations and technical unit personnel with 15,000 troops from neighboring nations such as Egypt and Jordan to stabilize this region following the decimation of the ISIS command and control.  It will also require the use of non-nuclear EMP attacks to shut down the ISIS communication capabilities.  Targeted air strikes will be key and they will have to be supported by ground intelligence in order to minimize collateral damage.  It must be noted that any effective military incursion into Al-Raqqua will result in civilian casualties.  This will be caused by ISIS using civilians as cover.  In today’s war against terror, the US and its allies must prepare their citizens that collateral damage is a reality caused by the enemy, and not our liberation efforts!

The fact that Syrian Assad government is still in place adds a new dimension to our offensive moves in Al-Raqqua.  Trump will most likely give Assad and Russia assurances that our primary objective is the elimination of ISIS and NOT regime change in Syria.  (That train has already left the station with all of the failed Obama red lines.)  Trump will also need assurances with Russia that our goal is singular and not threatening to Russia’s interests in the area.  Once the command and control of ISIS is taken out, the international force, that is primarily comprised of other Middle Eastern nations, will secure the Al-Raqqua area and allow humanitarian relief to help restore the area.  Additional refugee camps will have to be constructed to bridge the relocation task that will take quite a while to complete and stop the mass exodus out of Syria into the West.

Trump will also have to freeze Iran out of Syria during these operations.  Iran’s meddling in Iraq will be dealt with separately.  The bottom line is that if Assad remains in control of Syria, Iran will continue its status as an ally with Syria as it has for decades!

ISIS Libya: 

Military intervention into Libya will be a similar multi-national force, primarily consisting of Egypt and Jordan supported by our special operations and technical unit personnel.  Without the command and control in Al-Raqqua, the ISIS operations in other countries will be severely crippled.  Couple that with the Trump program to seize oil and financial resources of ISIS, in Syria, Iraq and Libya, the ISIS resistance in Libya will be severely reduced.  The key issue in Libya will be to have the Islamic coalition re-establish stability and governance in Libya.  Egypt particularly, as the next door neighbor to Libya, has a vested interest in the establishment of a stable Libya.  The final military operation will be one of “Martial Law” to keep the Libyan war lords from continuing their opposition to stabilization. 

ISIS Central Africa:

ISIS in Central Africa is presently not as cohesive as in Syria and Libya.  Without support from Syria, the Central African allegiance to ISIS will be seriously degraded.  Military operations in Central Africa will consist of US special operations with the majority of the force being from other Islamic nations.  The goal will NOT be nation building but the elimination of the terror elements. 

Financial and Oil Asset Seizure:

Trump has talked a great deal about the retaking of ISIS controlled oil assets and seizing any financial assets or revenue that they have used to grow and sustain their operations.  The oil asset seizure will consist of air strikes against oil trucks and ground troops to take back the oil facilities.  The risk will be that ISIS will demolish the oil facilities as they depart.  That is a risk that we need to take and if it happens we can rebuild the infrastructure paying for it with oil revenue once the asset have been re-established. 

The financial and oil asset seizure strategy is vital to the total elimination of ISIS (and other terrorist organizations).  Once they lack funding, their ability to fund external operations diminishes greatly.  Without internet communications, recruitment, training and deployment of foreign ISIS terrorist will be greatly diminished. 

International, Domestic Intelligence & Law Enforcement Coordination:

Rudy Giuliani and others could be vital to the formulation of our International and Domestic Anti-Terror reset under Trump.  Giuliani understands the absolute necessity of coordination between International Intelligence, the FBI and local law enforcement.  The creation of Homeland Security under Bush has only served to create a behemoth bureaucracy that is still ineffective in creating a state of the art communication team that is all-inclusive.  Recent terror attacks have shown that local law enforcement has been out of the loop in terms of threats or the surveillance of specific individuals.  This has to change!

A key to the short and long-term elimination of Radical Islamic Terrorism, will be to create an international team of local assets that can gather and communicate intelligence on all terror operations world-wide.  This has been typically a CIA operation but I am not sure that agency is capable of effective foreign operations at this point.  Trump may need to “retool” the CIA.  These assets must be locals who can infiltrate terror organizations.  This will require a serious commitment to this type of foreign intelligence.  All of the information that is gained by this agency, must be tightly coordinated with the Domestic Intelligence operation.

US Domestic Intelligence operations are typically executed by the FBI.  Like the CIA, the capabilities and organization of the FBI will be reviewed and revamped as necessary.  The FBI has to work seamlessly with the International Intelligence operations to ensure that any threat uncovered can quickly be translated into local action by local law enforcement 

The Domestic Intelligence operation will also include agencies like the NSA.  The NSA intelligence mandate will be reviewed by Trump with a refocus on social media and targeted electronic monitoring.  To day, the NSA massive data storage has only served to provide post event intelligence.  By then, it is a bit too late.  The entire system needs to be refocused on targeted threats both domestic and foreign and within constitutional constraints. 

Immigration Security and Border Control:

Trump will definitely curtail or dramatically cut back on immigration from countries where terror threats have emanated and also the Syrian Refugee program.  He will create a team to propose changes that are needed in immigration policy and vetting procedures as well as a new post immigration follow-up.  The Syrian Refugee program may be replaced by building Syrian refugee camps to temporarily house refugees until we rid Syria of ISIS.  Other Visa programs may be restarted once the new programs and screening are in place.  The new policies will include the tracking of Visa immigrants to insure that overstays are brought back under control. 

Physical control over the southern and northern border is critical to stop the influx of illegal immigrants as well as drugs and other undesirable smuggling.  A physical fence will be built on the southern border with increased electronic and drone coverage for both the northern and southern borders.  The federal border control agencies will once again be mandated to closely coordinate enforcement with local law enforcement.  Sanctuary States or cities will be eliminated as a violation of federal law and any offending States or cities will be sanctioned by the withholding of federal funds. 

Federal, State and local law enforcement will re-institute the deportation of illegal aliens with first priority on those who have violated other Federal, State or local laws.  Due to the neglect over the past seven and a half years that has created a backlog in our immigration courts, special legislation may be needed to create additional courts and jurisdictions to eliminate the backlog.

The E-Verify program will be strengthened and re-implemented with enforceable teeth.  Violators will be prosecuted and the applicants encouraged to engage in a newly formulated alien repatriation program.  The goal will be either the eventual assimilation of illegal immigrants through a lawful process or self-deportation for those preferring to leave the US. 

H-1A and H-1B programs will be revisited and emphasis on domestic hiring prioritized.

NATO Terrorism Emphasis:

Trump has spoken several times on the need to review the NATO charter, financial contributions by member nations, and its effectiveness in today’s world.  NATO will have to be changed to add an emphasis on counter-terrorism.  Changes to NATO that involve control over European immigration will be met with resistance from the European Union who favors a more open border policy.  The US may be faced with a decision as to whether it can actually help defend EU nations if they do not tighten immigration policy and internal security.  NATO is primarily structured to deal with external threats.  Terror threats are internal threats that require a much different approach.  A Trump administration will not be all that supportive of an open border policy that could very well be counter-productive to NATO security agreements. 

If the EU NATO members and other members do not tighten their border and immigration controls, Trump will place VISA vetting requirements for anyone traveling to the US from nations who do not tighten their own borders.  Without increased scrutiny of those travelers, the US would have a gaping hole in its own security protocol and one that terrorists would exploit.

Conclusion:

A Trump administration would usher in a totally different war on terror approach. 

Obama basically has adopted a hands off approach to fighting the war on terror and has exacerbated our vulnerabilities by opening our borders and not enforcing any immigration laws.  He is doing virtually nothing to physically combat ISIS and others overseas leaving them to metastasize leaving the world less secure. 

Bush basically combined fighting terror with nation building that ended up leaving our security in about the same spot, for different reasons, as Obama. 

Trump would execute a war in terror by eliminating the core of the terror organizations, tightening our own physical security, strengthening international counter-terrorism capabilities, with or without NATO, and Not engage in nation building.  Trump’s solution would empower other Islamic nations to help rebuild impacted nations and regions but not directly intervene in national governance.

If Hillary is elected and Trump is not, she will continue Obama’s policies with a little bit of Bush’s nation building thrown in. 

If that happens, by a Gun, Move to the Mountains, and Pray!

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

(1)  To consolidate Trump’s terrorism/ISIS foreign policy, I have combined elements  of his speeches, campaign rallies, and interviews.  Often Trump assumes that the audience understands the details behind his “One-Liners” but often the press, his opponents, and RINOs attribute erroneous conclusions to his comments.

Assad/Putin May Prove Trump Correct on Syria/ISIS

Palmyra, Syria, Recaptured by Assad/Russians From ISIS

Reminder:  Trump said he would work with Russia to rid Syria, Iraq and the World of ISIS. 

Trump Sessions

Obama is doing this by default!

President Assad of Syria, aided by the Russians/Putin, just recaptured the ancient city of Palmyra from ISIS!  There is a better than even chance that Assad/Putin will eventually, maybe before Obama leaves office, rid Syria of ISIS and eliminate its “caliphate’s capital” stronghold in Al-Raqqah. 

Elimination of Syrian Rebels:  Further, during the purge of ISIS, Assad/Putin will most assuredly take out the so-called ally of the West, the Syrian Anti-Assad group, praised by Senators Ted Cruz,  John McCain and Lindsay Graham.  If this occurs, Syria will remain in Assad’s control as an Alawite dominated nation with close ties to Russia and IRAN.  This will effectively “sandwich” Iraq between its two recent enemies, Syria and Iran. 

Iraq Reverts to Shia-Then Splits:  Iraq, then, will be left to its own devices to deal with the remnants of the Sunni ISIS in Iraq.  Please remember that the Sunni ISIS group was founded by members of Saddam’s Sunni army back in 2003 after we invaded Iraq.  Saddam Hussein was a despotic Sunni dictator who maintained Sunni control over the Shia and Kurdish inhabitants by brute force.  After we eliminated Saddam and tried to set up a coalition government, the country remained divided and crippled and this allowed for Sunni ISIS to raise from the ashes we created.  

ISIS then is diametrically opposed to Syria’s Alawite leader Assad, the Kurds in Northern Iraq, and the predominant Shia population in the balance of Iraq, and Shia Iran.  Iraq is primarily Shia (62%) like Syria and Iran.  Ethnically the Kurds in the North (17% of Iraq’s population) do not associate themselves with their Iraqi co-inhabitants to the South but are more allied with Iran.  Eliminating the Sunni-ISIS uprising in Iraq would be a “Holy” victory and return Iraq to its Shia roots! 

Iraqi Problems-Ethnic Diversity and Oil:  What to do with Iraq after ISIS is defeated is the real questionThe major two problems with Iraq is that the disparate groups who were thrown into the same geographic nation back in 1917 by the Europeans and the US, are historically and in some cases ethnically different; and two, the oil fields in Iraq and the multiple pipelines traversing Iraq are not uniformly distributed along ethno-religious lines.  If Iraq is subdivided between the Kurds in the North, and then Western and Eastern Iraq, or between the Kurds and the rest of Iraq, the oil wealth would not be disbursed evenly.  Some economic arrangement would have to be reached to make this split, or a two way split, as equitable as possible.  This would not be easy.

 

Two Way Split of Iraq:  So, how do you divide Iraq and keep some semblance of peace?  Probably a two-way split of Iraq would be the easiest alternative.  The Kurds in the north could be separated from the rest of Iraq.  But the Kurds also lay claim to portions of Turkey and Syria.  The Kurds feel some of their land was unlawfully “annexed” into Turkey and Syria in the 1917 realignment.  It is estimated that there are approximately 18 million Kurds living in Turkey alone as a result of this division. 

The map below will give you an idea how difficult any border realignment would be to segregate the Kurds.  The Kurdish populations in the Middle East are shown in Red below.  The Kurds have major populations in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran!  In a practical sense, there will be no way to establish a unified Kurdish state.  At best, the North Eastern and Northern portions of Iraq could be segregated.  The Kurds in Syria and Turkey will probably remain segregated.  Perhaps an international agreement could be reached with Syria and Turkey to protect the Kurds in those countries.  These types of arrangement have always been limited in terms of there success.

Kurds

Post ISIS Syria, Iraq, Iran and the Kurd nation would look a lot like the pre-Saddam Iraq with the exception of the Kurdish separation.  Like, during the cold war, Russia would revert as the major influence in Syria and Iraq and would increase their influence in Iraq.  The Kurds would probably remain allied with the West for self preservation!  So basically, after 40 decades of US direct involvement in Iraq, Iran and Syria, the original status quo would be re-established!!! 

Will Trump be Vindicated?

So while many have criticized Donald Trump’s views of how to defeat ISIS, and return this portion of the Middle East to some semblance of “peace”, his positions, proposed alliances, and predictions may actually come to pass.  Most of Trump’s detractors are those who were the architects and players in the US intervention of the region.  So Trump may win a bittersweet war of ideas but that will not bring back the 250,000 Syrians who died in the Syrian Civil War; the thousands of Iraqis who died in our two gulf war interventions; the 3,600 or so US military personnel who died in our two gulf war interventions; and the countless Kurds, Iraqis and Syrians who have been killed by ISIS.  Nor will it eliminate his critics as they had a bloody hand in the creation of this debacle!

Christian Genocide:  One other tragic outcome of these decades has been the systematic genocide of Christians in Syria, Iraq, and Iran at the hands of ISIS, Saddam Hussein, Assad, the Ayatollahs in Iran, and the post war, US supported, Iraqi governments.

Islamic Terrorism will Survive:  It is important to note, that even if ISIS is removed from Syria and Iraq, some form of Islamic Terror will continue until we attack that problem at is cultural-religious roots.

In the final analysis, the question will be what lesson, if any, have we learned over the past 30 years?  Probably none!

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

Hat Tips

http://www.pewforum.org/2009/10/07/mapping-the-global-muslim-population/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurds

Rubio-“US Should Respond and Defend Turkey if Turkey is Attacked by Russia”

Rubio stated today on Fox News:

“Turkey is a member of the NATO alliance, and so, if the NATO alliance is to remain vibrant, then we have to live up to our commitments in that alliance. We can’t decide that we’re not going to work on behalf of one of these countries…”

If Obama made yet another speech condemning Russia and vowing action against Russia, would Obama follow through?  Nope!

France, a NATO nation,  was attacked on November 13th, did the US Senate and the House of Representatives vote to declare war against ISIS?  Nope!

So Senator Rubio, If you are going to use strong language of what you think the president to do, you should be acting out your outrage on the floor of he Senate.  Article One Section Eight of the US constitution empowers Congress to declare war.  Why didn’t you introduce legislation in the Senate on November 13th or 14th to have the Congress declare war against ISIS?

Candidates who are still serving as a Senator, House Member, or governor still need to perform the functions they were elected to do.  Rhetoric is what e expect from the left, not our candidates.

 

 

 

Hat Tips:

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/11/24/rubio-us-should-respond-and-defend-turkey-if-it-is-attacked-by-russia/

 

Lindsay Graham-Punish Our Olympic Athletes for Russia’s Action

Minnie GrahamMinnie Mouse (Lindsay Graham, wife of Mickey Mouse, John McCain), displays his utter and unbound ignorance and disregard of Olympic athletics by calling for a boycott of of the 2014 Olympics to be held in Russia, in an effort to “punish” the Russians/Putin for harboring Edward Snowden.  What Minnie Graham does not take into account is that Olympic athletes work tirelessly, UNPAID, unlike US Senators, for years to make it to the Olympics.  Many, if they miss the 2014 Olympics will never have another chance to compete in the Olympics.  For those athletes, and their families who have supported their quest throughout their development, will be left unsated in their quest for Olympic fame.

Minnie Graham is in good company calling for boycotting of Olympics.  The last president to do so was Jimmy Carter who boycotted two Olympic events in 1980.  Maybe Minnie Graham could actually grow up and quit playing Miz RINO of 2013 and actually embrace conservative values and actually work on returning this nation to a rule of law!  Nah!  Too much work.  Better to pick on amateur athletes!.

RD Pierini

Hat Tip:  Newsmax:  http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/graham-russia-boycott-snowden/2013/07/16/id/515416

Obama-The Great Alliance Builder–“Saudis Seek Friends in Russia and China”

Appropriate Legacy

During the 2008 campaign, the media heralded the second coming as being Obama and that Obama-The-Great would create alliances throughout the globe that had been utterly destroyed by the bad evil GW Bush.  Obama could reach out to Africa, the Arab World, our European Allies, the East, the North, the South, and the West.  The media could not wait for us to discover life on Mars so Obama could go there and woo the Martians over to our side in peace and harmony. 

Then…S H A Z A M! 

The reality of 2011.  One of our staunchest Arab ally in the Middle East has always been Saudi Arabia.  GW Bush and practically every president before GW had a good relationship with Saudi Arabia and the Royal Family.  Then comes Obama-the-Great and destroys a century of good relations with Saudi Arabia at a time when gas prices are at or over $4.00/gallon and OPEC is thumbing their collective noses in our face, thanks to Obama-the-Great.  Even Tom Brokaw reported today from Iraq that:

“I was told on the way in here that the Saudis are so unhappy with the Obama administration for the way it pushed out President Mubarak of Egypt that it sent high level emissaries to China and Russia to tell those two countries that Saudi Arabia now is prepared to do more business with them.”

This is from the hard-core mainstream media who anointed and crowned Obama-the-Great.  King Abdullah himself, a long time friend of the US, is questioning the depth and breadth of our friendship and support.  Just how do you think Saudi Arabia is viewing Obama-the-Great’s calls for Kadaffi to get out?  How about Obama-the-Great’s call for the Royal Family in Bahrain to pack up?  How about our apparent willingness to side with Al Qaeda who are part of the Libyan Rebels trying to ouster Kadaffi?  Obama-the-Great is backing every rebellion in the Middle East and this is making even the King of Saudi Arabia seek relationships with either Russia, China or both.  Obama-the-Great is creating a power vacuum in the Middle East and now in Africa that will usher in Russia and China as we exit through the back door.  All of our Cold War gains may be for nought if Obama-the-Great continues and he will.  He has no choice, he is incompetent!

Israel is certainly not comfortable with Obama-the-Great.  The EU has no clue what Obama-the-Great’s foreign policy is towards them or our past enemies or whether our enemies are now our friends and our friends our enemies.  Wait, even the rebels who Obama-the-Great somewhat supports thinks he is a flake and they can’t rely on him. 

Obama-the-Great’s skills at forging new alliances are certainly unique.  In about a half a term, he has wiped out a 100 years of solid alliances that took hundreds of thousands of lives to achieve.  He has confounded both our allies and our enemies.  He has emboldened China and Russia to the point where they do not even concern themselves about what the US will do in the face of a threat.  They know Obama-the-Great will back down and sell out the US. 

Well when Chris Matthews and maybe Bill Maher start criticizing Obama-the-Great maybe we will know that there may be hope that we can solicit our media’s help in electing a real leader who can actually fill the shoes of our past great Presidents.  If they put Obama’s picture on any currency it will have to be a $3.00 bill.  That way the old saying, “Phony as a $3.00 Bill” will have a picture attached to it!  We can call them ‘BARRY BUCKS!’

RD Pierini

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/nbc-s-brokaw-saudis-so-unhappy-obama-adm

We are worrying about being Fat while the World Goes Up In Smoke

The headlines on most news sites this week are truly bizarre.  Here are a few:

World Going up in Smoke:

  • “Oil at two-year high as Libya on edge of civil war”
  • “Hundreds back Facebook call for Saudi protest”
  • “Gaddafi’s Next Move: Sabotage Oil and Sow Chaos?”
  • Democrat urges unions to ‘get a little bloody when necessary'”

Fat:

  • “America’s Portly Pet Problem”
  • “Obesity gene may up dementia risk” 

A Little of Both:

DENNY’S GRAND SLAM:  FIGHT BREAKS OUT WHEN ‘NO MAPLE SYRUP’…

I guess if one or the other of these headline groups, Worldwide Anarchy or Eating ourselves to death, may result at the same place.  We are goners!  The irony is that both are primarily food based.  The plethora of protests started as a revolt against climbing food prices, due to our monetary and agricultural policies, and the latter by our eating too much food and the wrong food and also sharing them with our pets!  So, let just quit eating and the problems will be solved!  That is what a government study would conclude!

In the midst of all of this chaos, the world citizens are looking for direction and leadership.  The US President appears weak and confused; European Leaders have been virtually silent; so there is a leadership void in the world at large.  This is the same environment that was present when Hitler was “created”.  During his ascendency, Hitler was admired by many prominent Americans and Europeans alike at the time.  In the absence of world leadership, people will become insecure and seek solace in almost anyone who provides even the hint of safety and leadership for the people.  The new leader(s) may also break along geopolitical lines.  Islamic Peoples may seek a world Islamic Leader to look up to for guidance.  Western Peoples may cede their liberty for a leader promising to re-establish the West’s dominance or pander to some other emotional need of Western Peoples.  China and Russia will tightly control their citizens so may be subject to some unrest but it is doubtful that any serious uprising would occur in either nation.  In short, we would potential end up with a world that is dominated by three groups:  Islamic World Movement; Western Isolationist; China/Russia Coalition. 

The trilateral power shift would pit three ideological giants against each other and there is no common thread between them.  During the Cold War, we relied on Mutually Assured Destruction to keep Russia from attacking the US.  The Islamic movement does not believe that they would be defeated and that suicide missions are justified by their belief structure.  Russia and China would try to play the West against the Islamic group and visa versa.  Ultimately they would be seen as the enemy of the Islamic group but that would only be after the West was subjugated. 

My suggestion to the U.S. would be to forget about obesity for a while and concentrate on rebuilding the West and Man-UP so we have a leadership model we can all look up to.  Europe needs to stand up to Obama and tell him what they really think.  European leaders do not agree with Obama’s fiscal, Islamic or unilateral disarmament positions.  They need to make their concerns vocal before it is too late.  China and Russia will not fight against a strong US but will seek to devour a weak US.  A weak US will allow the Islamic Movement to spread rapidly throughout the world and even to overtake the US.   

Time to wake up and take control…

RD Pierini

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110223/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_libya

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/145627-dem-lawmaker-on-labor-protests-get-a-little-bloody-when-necessary

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/02/23/wh_obamas_non-response_on_libya_due_to_scheduling_issue.html

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2011/02/22/americas-portly-pet-problem/

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2011/02/22/2011-02-22_florida_woman_busted_for_assaulting_roommate_over_girl_scout_cookies.html

http://www.youtube.com/verify_age?next_url=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DXxeZvUKpFbM 

 

Russia uses START Treaty to Blackmail the U.S. into Sharing Defence Shield Design

Well who would NOT have guessed that this administration would be hoodwinked by the Russians regarding the new START treaty and our implementation of our Missile Defence Shield.  The Russians are now threatening to pull out of the new treaty if we implement our missile defense system and not share that technology with them.  How appropriate though, on the 100 Anniversary of the Birth of Ronald Reagan that the 40th President’s dream of creating a “Star Wars” type of defence shield for the U.S. has become a reality but how sad it is that we elected the current President who will most like give into the Russians and turn over our technology to the Russians.  A defence shield is only good if it can remain effected as a DEFENSE!  If others with offensive weapons have access to the design and operational components of the defence mechanism, how long would it be before they engineer around our defence shield? 

But what the heck, we have only spent billions on building our defense shield for ourselves and our allies so why not give it away to our adversaries.  How long would it take Russia and China to give those same secrets away to Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and other nuclear nations once we hand over the keys to the kingdom to them?  And even more importantly, why has Obama stopped our deployment of our own defense shield in the US?  What do our allies in Europe and Asia think about our current posture and predicament?  Where is the open transparency and good will build up with our allies that Obama promised as a candidate.  Where is Bush when you need him?

Maybe we should just go the United Nations right now and surrender.  That may be preferrable to the systematic slow death this administration has planned for the U.S..

RD Pierini

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/RussiaUSNuclear/2011/02/07/id/385283