Tag Archives: Putin

The Multi-Faceted Intent of the Syrian Strike-America First!

Trump: And You Thought I Was Kidding!

Are you confused whether Trump’s bombing of the Syrian airbase over Assad’s use of chemical weapons is:

  • a contradiction of his campaign promises;
  • or whether Trump is now a Neo-Con who believes in Nation Building;
  • or has the President simply let his left leaning advisors to con in him to attacking Syria? 

Well, none of the “conventional wisdom” is right and certainly the main stream media (MSM) is clueless as are most of the Republican insiders, Never Trumpers, right-wing isolationists, or self-professed “Conservatives”!

Did Trump know that he would be tested by the world’s bad actors early in his presidency.  ABSOLUTELY. 

  • Syria:  Did he know that Syria would use chemical weapons to test him?  He probably had a test by Syria on his watch list of possible provocations as well as the following:
  • North Korea:  The President probably had a provocation by NoKo on his short list of potential tests.
  • Iran:  The President certainly had Iran on his short list of bad actors and potential provocateurs.
  • Russia:  The President probably did not think that Putin would come at the US directly but use one or more of his partners-in-crime, Iran or Syria.
  • China:  The President probably did not consider China a source of a military challenge due to our mutual need for trade and other common interests in the region.

Trump had contingency plans in place for all of the “A” list of bad actors and their possible provocative actions.  Trump had a bucket full of escalation options for retaliation short of all out war or troop invasion.  Trump also knew that if his retaliation was decisive enough he could use it to stalemate the rest of the bad actors.

What did President Trump Accomplish by Bombing Syria?

All of the potential threats from the bad actors were not necessarily negated but he certainly gave all of them pause.  Further, the two military powers who use surrogates to test the US, Russia and China, were put on notice that the US would not tolerate threats to the US or stand idly by if weapons of mass destruction were used in combat. 

What were the messages sent by Trump and received by the bad actors?

China:  The US needs China to either act directly against North Korea’s nuclear program or at least not oppose action by the US to do so.  The timing of the bombing was especially helpful as President Xi was concurrently meeting with President Trump.  The timing of the bombing and the meeting was perfect as Trump’s words about dealing with North Korea if China would not was backed by his action against Syria.  China now knows that what President Trump says is what he means.  He is not necessarily diplomatic but he certainly says what he means, period.

North Korea:  IF NoKo had a rational leader, which they do not, the Syrian bombing and China’s support of our policy of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula should give the North Korean leadership pause.  It is doubtful that the NoKo leadership is neither rational nor well advised.  NoKo will probably continue to test their nuclear weapons and delivery systems.  China just moved 120,000 troops to their border with North Korea to prevent refugees from NoKo to come into China if the US moves to take out the NoKo nuclear program.  Action by the US is imminent.  Unfortunately, there is really no other option for the US vis-à-vis the denuclearization of the of the Korean Peninsula.  We are probably looking at days, not weeks or months. 

Iran:  Iran will probably adopt a take a “look-see” posture for the time being and not directly take any action against the US.  They will pound their chests and condemn the US but what else is new.  They will oppose any diplomatic efforts to depose his ally, Assad.  But, Iran now knows that Trump will continue to ratchet up sanctions and financial transaction scrutiny.  They now know that what Trump says he will do. 

Syria:  Assad is not as nutty as North Korea but he could retaliate against US troops in Syria fighting ISIS.  THIS IS ONE OF THE PRIMARY REASONS TRUMP HIT SYRIA FOR USING CHEMICAL WEAPONS AS THESE WEAPONS COULD HAVE BEEN USED AGAINST US TROOPS.  IN FACT, I BELIEVE THAT THE ATTACK ON THE CIVILIANS WAS A DRY RUN TO SEE IF TRUMP WOULD REACT.  IF HE HADN’T, ASSAD WOULD BE EMBOLDENED TO USE THESE WEAPONS AGAINST US TROOPS IN SYRIA.  Syria will probably let Russia try to fend off the US and world-wide negative opinion until such time Assad is viewed as a liability to Putin.

Russia:  Putin apparently received the message sent by Trump that Obama is no longer in charge.  Trump stalemated Putin’s advances in the Middle East and probably Eastern Europe.  Putin is now assessing what Trump is and what he represents to the future of Russia.  IF Putin is smart, he will seek to get an agreement with Trump to keep his access to the Syrian naval ports and seek to transition Assad out of power.  This will not be simple nor easy especially since the Alawites (Assad’s Shia group) will want to maintain power over Syria and its 90% Sunni population.  Further, Iran sees Syria as key to their march towards dominating the Middle East with a Shia coalition of Iran, Syria and Afghanistan. 

United Nations:  President Trump and his Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, sent a strong message to the UN, and its members, that they are no longer relevant to the US, or the world, in determining US policy.  We will take an issue to them as a matter of courtesy but our decision is based on America First and we will not wait for the Security Council to act, nor not.   This is accentuated by President Trump cutting the US budget to the UN which is long overdue. 

NATO:  During the campaign candidate Trump made it clear that members of NATO would have to meet their financial obligations AND modernize and emphasize Counter Terrorism if they are to remain relevant and supported by the US.  Message received and backed up by decisive action by the US in Syria.  Too bad the other NATO nations did not initiate the reaction against Syria but perhaps they will be emboldened to do so in the future as they have post-Trump bombing of Syria.

The Aftermath:

So, while 59 Tomahawks and 59,000 pounds of explosives at a cost of $88,500,000 may not be considered by some as significant and others as over-kill, we probably saved over the $88,500,000 in costs for flights, hotel rooms and meals for overstuffed diplomats sitting around a table wringing their hands trying to figure out what to do about Syria, Iran, North Korea, ISIS, and Russia.

Trump planted our flag once again in the sacred ground referred to as the international community.  Time will tell the extent of the fall-out from Trump’s actions but there is no doubt that his action resulted in

“MESSAGE SENT-MESSAGE RECEIVED”.

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

 

TrumpCare Challenge-Governance With the “Art of the Deal”

Democrat Obamacare Vs Republican TrumpCare

Obamacare was NEVER “sunshined” to the American Voter, or even Congress, before it was passed.  Just ask then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who said we will have to pass it to see what is in it!

The TrumpCare replacement, ala Paul Ryan, was just made public and all hell broke loose.  AS IT SHOULD!  The good news, it has not even undergone House hearings or opened yet for amendments let alone scheduled for a vote in the House.  The Senate has yet to propose its own bill or reviewed the House bill with its Republican caucus. 

So far, what you are witnessing is Congress going through a normal legislative process where this TrumpCare bill will be sliced, diced, amended, changed dramatically or even scrapped altogether before the process is finished. 

That is a good thing.  That is what we sent our representatives to Congress to do!

Keep in mind, there are two parts to the ultimate TrumpCare legislation.  One, Repeal Obamacare.  Two, Replace Obamacare.  According to many of the conservatives, the current bill does not go far enough to completely repeal the current ACA/Obamacare law.  Further, these same conservatives do not feel that the current replacement bill is not a free-market, conservative principled replacement.  You are hearing the term Obamacare-Lite!

Why did Trump praise this bill even though the bill did not contain all that he wanted and campaigned to deliver?

The House, Ryan TrumpCare bill is a Start!  Trump see this bill as the START of the Negotiations, not the FINAL PRODUCT!

Now the fun part begins.  The “sausage making” will be on full display as it should be.  For those who are less than 25 years old, you have never really seen a real legislative process!  For those of us who have attained senior status, we may have forgotten what a real legislative process looks like!

Be that as it may, the public display and posturing by the various factions works to our advantage.  Call your Senator, call your representative, tweet President Trump directly and let you voice be heard.   This bill, in its current form, will not be passed nor signed by President Trump.  It is only the beginning. 

Be assured that President Trump, VP Pence, and HHS Secretary Price will be working to make sure all sides come together.  They would also include the Democrats but it is doubtful if they will join in the debate.  They seem to be fixated on the Russians, period. 

Maybe if Putin weighs in on the TrumpCare process, the Democrats and their lackeys in the main stream media ears would perk up.  Don’t hold your breath!  Just imagine the editorial meeting in the NYT trying to figure out how to tie this to Russian Hacking and Trump collusion with Putin!

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

Hat Tips

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/conservatives-gop-obamacare-plan/2017/03/07/id/777477/

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/conservatives-gop-obamacare-plan/2017/03/07/id/777477/

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/03/07/sean-spicer-inaccurately-claims-paul-ryans-health-care-bill-fully-repeals-obamacare/

 

 

Assad/Putin May Prove Trump Correct on Syria/ISIS

Palmyra, Syria, Recaptured by Assad/Russians From ISIS

Reminder:  Trump said he would work with Russia to rid Syria, Iraq and the World of ISIS. 

Trump Sessions

Obama is doing this by default!

President Assad of Syria, aided by the Russians/Putin, just recaptured the ancient city of Palmyra from ISIS!  There is a better than even chance that Assad/Putin will eventually, maybe before Obama leaves office, rid Syria of ISIS and eliminate its “caliphate’s capital” stronghold in Al-Raqqah. 

Elimination of Syrian Rebels:  Further, during the purge of ISIS, Assad/Putin will most assuredly take out the so-called ally of the West, the Syrian Anti-Assad group, praised by Senators Ted Cruz,  John McCain and Lindsay Graham.  If this occurs, Syria will remain in Assad’s control as an Alawite dominated nation with close ties to Russia and IRAN.  This will effectively “sandwich” Iraq between its two recent enemies, Syria and Iran. 

Iraq Reverts to Shia-Then Splits:  Iraq, then, will be left to its own devices to deal with the remnants of the Sunni ISIS in Iraq.  Please remember that the Sunni ISIS group was founded by members of Saddam’s Sunni army back in 2003 after we invaded Iraq.  Saddam Hussein was a despotic Sunni dictator who maintained Sunni control over the Shia and Kurdish inhabitants by brute force.  After we eliminated Saddam and tried to set up a coalition government, the country remained divided and crippled and this allowed for Sunni ISIS to raise from the ashes we created.  

ISIS then is diametrically opposed to Syria’s Alawite leader Assad, the Kurds in Northern Iraq, and the predominant Shia population in the balance of Iraq, and Shia Iran.  Iraq is primarily Shia (62%) like Syria and Iran.  Ethnically the Kurds in the North (17% of Iraq’s population) do not associate themselves with their Iraqi co-inhabitants to the South but are more allied with Iran.  Eliminating the Sunni-ISIS uprising in Iraq would be a “Holy” victory and return Iraq to its Shia roots! 

Iraqi Problems-Ethnic Diversity and Oil:  What to do with Iraq after ISIS is defeated is the real questionThe major two problems with Iraq is that the disparate groups who were thrown into the same geographic nation back in 1917 by the Europeans and the US, are historically and in some cases ethnically different; and two, the oil fields in Iraq and the multiple pipelines traversing Iraq are not uniformly distributed along ethno-religious lines.  If Iraq is subdivided between the Kurds in the North, and then Western and Eastern Iraq, or between the Kurds and the rest of Iraq, the oil wealth would not be disbursed evenly.  Some economic arrangement would have to be reached to make this split, or a two way split, as equitable as possible.  This would not be easy.

 

Two Way Split of Iraq:  So, how do you divide Iraq and keep some semblance of peace?  Probably a two-way split of Iraq would be the easiest alternative.  The Kurds in the north could be separated from the rest of Iraq.  But the Kurds also lay claim to portions of Turkey and Syria.  The Kurds feel some of their land was unlawfully “annexed” into Turkey and Syria in the 1917 realignment.  It is estimated that there are approximately 18 million Kurds living in Turkey alone as a result of this division. 

The map below will give you an idea how difficult any border realignment would be to segregate the Kurds.  The Kurdish populations in the Middle East are shown in Red below.  The Kurds have major populations in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran!  In a practical sense, there will be no way to establish a unified Kurdish state.  At best, the North Eastern and Northern portions of Iraq could be segregated.  The Kurds in Syria and Turkey will probably remain segregated.  Perhaps an international agreement could be reached with Syria and Turkey to protect the Kurds in those countries.  These types of arrangement have always been limited in terms of there success.

Kurds

Post ISIS Syria, Iraq, Iran and the Kurd nation would look a lot like the pre-Saddam Iraq with the exception of the Kurdish separation.  Like, during the cold war, Russia would revert as the major influence in Syria and Iraq and would increase their influence in Iraq.  The Kurds would probably remain allied with the West for self preservation!  So basically, after 40 decades of US direct involvement in Iraq, Iran and Syria, the original status quo would be re-established!!! 

Will Trump be Vindicated?

So while many have criticized Donald Trump’s views of how to defeat ISIS, and return this portion of the Middle East to some semblance of “peace”, his positions, proposed alliances, and predictions may actually come to pass.  Most of Trump’s detractors are those who were the architects and players in the US intervention of the region.  So Trump may win a bittersweet war of ideas but that will not bring back the 250,000 Syrians who died in the Syrian Civil War; the thousands of Iraqis who died in our two gulf war interventions; the 3,600 or so US military personnel who died in our two gulf war interventions; and the countless Kurds, Iraqis and Syrians who have been killed by ISIS.  Nor will it eliminate his critics as they had a bloody hand in the creation of this debacle!

Christian Genocide:  One other tragic outcome of these decades has been the systematic genocide of Christians in Syria, Iraq, and Iran at the hands of ISIS, Saddam Hussein, Assad, the Ayatollahs in Iran, and the post war, US supported, Iraqi governments.

Islamic Terrorism will Survive:  It is important to note, that even if ISIS is removed from Syria and Iraq, some form of Islamic Terror will continue until we attack that problem at is cultural-religious roots.

In the final analysis, the question will be what lesson, if any, have we learned over the past 30 years?  Probably none!

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

Hat Tips

http://www.pewforum.org/2009/10/07/mapping-the-global-muslim-population/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurds