Tag Archives: Pakistan

Afghanistan/Pakistan/Indian/South Asia Challenge-The Trump Doctrine

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The Trump Afghanistan/Indian Sub Continent/South Asia Doctrine:

Last night, August 21/2017, President Trump outlined his Afghanistan foreign policy plan as part of his Afghanistan/Indian Subcontinent/South Asia foreign policy.  He has been asking his advisors for months “What does winning in Afghanistan look like”?  Trump drilled down on the result first, forcing his advisors to start with the conclusion then working a strategy to achieve that result…  He kept questioning their approaches until he was able to formulate a foreign policy that may achieve a result that benefits United States self-interest.  What has evolved is a doctrine that seeks to bring together a real diverse, and challenging “coalition” of disparate interest and nations.

Strategic Change:  Afghans Determine their Future

Inside of Trump’s address, was the notion that the US has no interest in defining the political self-governance structure of Afghanistan.  GW Bush and the Neo-Cons had the goal of establishing a western-style democracy over a country that is absolutely tribal in nature, with war lords as their overseers, with no experience in self-governing other than within the tribe.  This concept was doomed for failure at the outset especially when you add in the fact that these peoples were Muslim.  Islam has its own inherent governance structure.

Afghanistan is NOT a country made up of homogenous ethnic peoples with the same self-interests or even share any historical commonality.  There are 8 major ethnic groups within the current Afghan borders that were defined in the late 1800’s and early 1900’s by the British, Russia, and China.  The resulting “country” was basically a corral around a many peoples, most of which knew little or nothing about the other.  The map below will give you an idea of how disparate the ethnic make-up of Afghanistan is.

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Don’t make the mistake and try to draw a comparison to our republic that is made of 50 States.  The closest US analogy would be if the Christopher Columbus had drawn a line around the US and told all of the tribes of native peoples (Indians) and island dwellers, that they had to be subservient to Washington DC (I know it did not exist in 1492).  Further, that they had to vote for the central government leadership!  It is pretty amazing how clueless our own leadership is!

President Trump recognized that for the US to try to superimpose a central government over Afghanistan is a fool’s folly.  He stated point-blank that he has no interest in meddling in the Afghans governance.  While this one message is subtle, it is key to recognize that an Afghan western-style democracy cannot be a criteria for success!

Primary Success Criteria:  Eliminate Terrorist Haven in Afghanistan

President Trump stated that there are 20 separate terrorist groups in Afghanistan and in Pakistan.  His number one success criteria is the elimination of terrorist organizations from Afghanistan and allowing the terrorist organization from reconstituting in Pakistan.  Period!  

This is not simple and contains many tactical changes to give this a fighting chance.  Trump stated he will incorporate changes to achieve this goal:

  1. Rules of Engagement:  The President stated that he will take off the restraints on our commanders and soldiers and allow them to fight to win.  This will include the elimination of having embedded LAWYERS making the decision as to whether a soldier can fire on someone planting an IED!  How stupid is it to read a terrorist his “Miranda Rights”!  Further, that in-field tactical decision-making will not require approval from Washington and that the Military command will be empowered to take the fight to the criminals and terrorist, this is critical that we fight both, and eliminate them as a threat.  
  2. Focus on the Fight:  The US will no longer be in the business of nation building.  Our troops will no longer be building roads and buildings but focused on killing terrorist.  Period.
  3. Eliminate Cross-Border Safe  Havens:  The President also said that they will pressure Pakistan, apply real pressure and not just lip service, to not object to the US bombing terrorist havens inside of the Pakistan border with Afghanistan.  Today, the terrorist scurry across the border and we do not pursue them.  Trump will use our aid to Pakistan and other economic incentives to coerce the Pakistan Government to cooperate with the US.  He will also seek to isolate their nuclear weapons even more to ensure they do not fall into the hands of the terrorists.
  4. Stalemate China:  China has been a long-term player in both Afghanistan and Pakistan and are close neighbors with the former sharing a small border with China.  China has also been instrumental in the nuclearization of Pakistan!   The US will have to put pressure on China to keep them from interfering in our efforts to work with Pakistan to eliminate the terrorist from the region.
  5. Stalemate Russia:  The old Soviet Union bordered Afghanistan and had long sought to take over the Afghan mineral deposits.  Since the Progressive Left has interfered with Trump’s ability to work with Russia on Syria and other common issues, it will be difficult for the President to stalemate Russia.  That said, Trump will do everything he can to insure that Russian arming of the militants is minimized.  Russia shares many of our concerns for militant Islam and hopefully Trump will be able to overcome the “Russia Fever” that the left has created in our country.
  6. All Out War:  Trump will also wage a war to win and focus less on pressures to fight a “gentlemen’s war”.  He has already increased bombings by over 182% since taking office.  He will use special forces, air power, cyber, and increase commitments from NATO and other allies.  He may run into some resistance from some NATO allies as he talks the gloves off.  The French, for example, don’t like to fight at night!  Amazing.  Trump will also push the envelope in terms of pure fire power using even more MOABs to get the attention of the Terrorists.
  7. Engage the War Lords:  Trump’s team recognizes the role the regional war lords play in running Afghanistan.  Trump will have to prevail on them to cease sheltering and aiding any of the terrorists.  If he can persuade them that the US is not supporting a centralization of an Afghan government and allow the war lords to have a larger role in Afghanistan’s future, he may win most of them over.

Second Success Criteria:  Reduce the US Financial Commitment

Trump was subtle in his speech to enlist more financial support from Afghanistan, NATO and even India!  He is focused on $$$ and the US need to get others to help foot the bills that benefit others as well as the US.  He will probably tell Tillerson that he will take care of this part of the diplomatic effort!

  1. Afghanistan Financial Support:  Remember Trump talking about the Iraq war and that we should have “taken” some of the oil as repayment for our economic commitment to “liberating” Iraq?  Well, Afghanistan’s mineral and gemstone wealth is estimated at 1-3 Trillion dollars and include: barite, chromite, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, natural gas, petroleum, precious and semi-precious stones, salt, sulfur, talc, zinc, emerald, lapis lazuli, red garnet and ruby.  Trump will probably seek to bring in international companies to help Afghanistan develop these resources and use part of the proceeds to offset our costs in the war effort.  Trump will also have to replace Afghanistan’s largest cash crop, poppies for opioid sales, with other sources of income for the war lords.   This change is needed to help rid the world markets of cheap opioids.  
  2. NATO:  Trump will ask NATO to increase their financial and military commitment to the Afghan Terrorist War as well.  NATO has already stated that they approve of the Trump Doctrine in South Asia and are open to discussions moving forward.
  3. India:  India is an interesting inclusion into the increased economic support for fighting terrorist in Afghanistan.  First of all, India is not a Muslim majority country and is in fact the home of the Sikhs who are enemies of the Muslims.  India would love to see the US exert more pressure on Pakistan as the two are also enemies in both religion and politics.  A more stable South Asia would benefit India and allow it to focus even more on its economic development and somewhat less on national defense.  The President seeks to pressure India, via its trade advantage with the US, to have India supply economic aid in Afghanistan in various forms.  At best, this will challenge even Trump’s “Art of the Deal” skills.  The overall alliance will include Muslims (both Sunni and Shia), Hindu, Sikhs, and a handful of others!  The alliance does, however, form a solid base for a true South Asia policy that includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Indian sub continent.  (May be easier than repealing Obamacare in Congress though)

The goals of the strategic change in Afghan self-determination, the defeat of terrorism in Afghanistan and to some degree Pakistan, and the Cost-Sharing goals to reduce US economic commitment to Afghanistan, define Trump’s success in Afghanistan.  If this succeeds with this “odd” alliance of players, it will have long-standing benefits in South Asia and help to stabilize a Post-Soviet South Asia.  If we do not succeed according to a time-table only Trump knows, we may pull out of Afghanistan sometime in the future.

There are many other facets of this doctrine that will be fleshed out in the coming months.  Trump will let the Generals and the troops do their jobs but will keep pressure on Mattis and his staff to keep their eye on the ball.  He will also make sure the Treasury is doing all they can to cut off the supply of funding to the terrorist and keep other cabinet members contributing in any way they can to assist the fight.  Rex Tillerson has a difficult job of keeping the coalition together while maintaining stability in Pakistan and elsewhere.  No small task.

Observation:  One thing to look for that will differentiate this campaign from our past feeble efforts to rid Afghanistan from Terrorist is a cessation of warfare during the winter months.  I would hazard a guess that Trump will seek to keep the terrorist from relaxing during the winter months with a series of asymmetrical attacks by land and air.  Sleep deprivation can be a demoralizing factor for sure…

RD Pierini



Hat Tips:






Trump to Pentagon On Afghanistan, “What Does Winning Look Like!”

Trump to Pentagon,

“What does Winning Look like in Afghanistan?” 

Culture shock in DC now extends to the Pentagon.  Specifically when it comes to defining Foreign Policy Strategy as it impacts Military Operations.   

As a businessman, Trump goes to the bottom line with every deal.   What does it mean to win and what does it look like in this particular deal.  We have been embroiled in conflict in Afghanistan since October, 2001.  We have seen what Bush thought was victory, then a redo with the surge, to Obama replacing combat with tentative engagement.  Trump will not approve of a military strategy in Afghanistan until he is convinced that he knows and believes what winning this conflict would look like and what will be the cost in blood and treasure.  Period.  

Apparently, in his meetings with DOD he was presented with a continuation of our prior strategy and was not satisfied with the strategy nor did he hear what winning would mean to the US.  Until he does, he will continue to press Mattis and McMaster and others.

While the MSM and talking heads are going nuts over not being able to pin Trump down on an Afghanistan strategy, why get in a hurry after almost 17 years of misery  and all too many casualties and injured servicemen and servicewomen. 

  • Trump has correctly said in the past that winning in Afghanistan has to include operations in Pakistan or we will continue to play “tag” with the Taliban scurrying back and forth from Afghanistan to their “safe space” in Pakistan. 
  • He has also indicated that anyone who receives billions from the US (Pakistan), must support our strategies or risk losing our aid.   Of course Trump detractors say that Pakistan is a nuclear nation so we can’t risk alienating them.  How about if you get$2B in aid and you probably can’t risk alienating us!

Trump also knows that doing nothing is also an option.  He will not naively dip his toe in an unwinnable conflict if he is not convinced that winning is not only attainable, but the likely outcome.  He believes that he owes this to our men and women in the military.

RD Pierini




Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar Thinks WE Should Rethink OUR Freedom of Speech!!!

Clinton and Pakistan’s FM Khar

     FM Hina Rabani Khar said to Wuss Blitzer on CNN that if Our Freedom of speech provokes those in Arab and Islamic countries that “maybe we do need to rethink how much freedom is okay.”  US to MS. Khar, “HOW ABOUT WE STOP SENDING YOU AND THE OTHER RADICAL COUNTRIES IN THE ARAB AND ISLAMIC WORLD OUR MONEY? 

You folks in the Arab and Islamic countries need to look in the mirror.  You have virtually destroyed the once beautiful countries of Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, etc. and now are hell-bent on destroying Egypt, Iraq, Afghanistan (again), and who knows where else. 


     It seems, to quote you about your Prophet Mohammed;  “Prophet Muhammed’s life is a life of peace,” “He is called the messenger of peace, for instance. So this is very different from the Islam that is portrayed to you when you see that street violence.”  Oh really?  How about the violence in Syria.  There are no Americans there inciting violence through their “insensitivities”.  How about the “Arab Spring” that was merely a pretext for radical Islamist to infect their host countries with radical Sharia ideology ala Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda ideology?  How about the bombings in Iraq AFTER the US left instigated by the Shiia on Sunni or visa versa?  No insults there by the US? 

     Your “culture” seems to be one of destruction and death no matter where you are.  The majority of YOUR Arab League detests the idea that Iran will soon have nuclear capabilities, because you know they will use them on you after Israel, but yet you sit back and do nothing hoping that your arch enemies, the US or Israel, take care of the problem for you so you can maintain your power base and not tick off your own “peaceful” Islamic Citizenry!  Your condemnation of our freedom of speech and religion is a farce of the highest degree. 

     It is time for you to get in touch with “YOUR INNER CHILD” and grow up and take responsibility for your own idiotic, self-defeating actions.  Islam is the least tolerant religion on the face of this planet.  Sharia is the most degrading set of “Laws” ever for freedom loving people and especially Women!  Beheading is not part of religious tolerance. 

Go ahead and run to the United Nations. 

Burning Up Your Foreign Aid

We will run to the US Treasury and cut off your aid.  How about a picture of us burning your foreign aid check!


RD Pierini

Hat Tip:  http://cnsnews.com/news/article/pakistani-foreign-minister-maybe-we-do-need-rethink-how-much-freedom-okay


Obama 1,180 Deaths; Bush 612; In Afghanistan–Did You See this in the Mainstream Media?

Obama “surged” ahead of GW Bush in terms of US casualties in Afghanistan since he took over in 2009.  According to CNS News, from October 7, 2001 to May 15, 2009, there were 612 deaths.  From May 16th 2009 to the present, this number has jumped to 1,792 fatalities.  Couple of questions come to mind:

  1. Where is that wacko Cindy Sheehan and why isn’t she camped outside of Obama’s vacation homes in Martha’s Vineyard, Aspen, Vale, Hawaii, or where ever Obama is vacationing this month?  Maybe she should wait by the 19th hole!
  2. Why aren’t we seeing daily death tolls in the media?
  3. Since Obama campaigned on making Afghanistan our “Priority”, what is:
    1. Our objective in Afghanistan other than to turn tail and run around the end of this year?
    2. Our exit strategy to ensure than what little progress we have made is not lost?
    3. The definition of success?  Vietnam anyone?
  4. Why doesn’t Obama get the correlation between kissing Karzai’s rear end and apologizing to the Muslims for doing what is prescribed in the Koran, and our kids getting shot by the very troops we just trained?
  5. Since we let the Taliban run back and forth from Afghanistan into Pakistan at will, what is our plan to make sure the Taliban does not retake Afghanistan?
  6. Obama, how is your appeasement and meet-n-greet campaign going with the Taliban.  Swimmingly I trust!

In 8 years under Bush, we lost an average of 77 troops per year.  Under Obama in less than 3 years, he is averaging 393 deaths per year.  That is 5 times the amount lost by Bush per year. 

Do you think that our terms of engagement might be a contributing factor?  Do you think it is safer to shoot a combatant when they are engaging in warfare or read them their Miranda Rights first?  Do you think it is safer for our troops to only engage defensively or be on the offensive looking for combatants and eliminating them?  You don’t have to be a West Point grad to figure this out.

In Portugal, in 2010 following a NATO summit on Afghanistan, Obama the sage had these words to say:

“So my message to President Karzai is: We have to be sensitive to his concerns and the concerns of the Afghan people. We can’t simply tell them what’s good for them.  We have to listen and learn and be mindful of the fact that Afghans ultimately make decisions about how they want to structure their governance, how they want to structure their justice system, how they want to approach economic development.”  (my emphasis)

I beg your pardon?  Afghanistan was under the control of the Taliban who allowed the country to be used by every terrorist group around as a training ground including al-Qaeda.  We have spent upwards of $100 Billion Dollars in military expenditures and on the rebuilding of Afghanistan since 2001 so we damn well have a right to “Tell them what’ good for them.”  Obviously they don’t have a clue.  Karzai and the Afghanis need to be SENSITIVE TO US!  The Afghans don’t have a clue how to develop economically or politically unless it centers around heroin exports!  Great, that will be our legacy for Afghanistan .  “We won the war and created the largest drug exporter in the world”.  Only someone in Washington could spin this the way Obama did above.

It is time that before we start another war, we sit down and figure out what is in it for US!  If the answer is nothing, then that should be the level of our committment!  I don’t mean to sound mercenary but the rest of the world view us a joke.  We have Obama who will suffer from early onset of Osteoporosis from bowing to every despot on the face of this earth and apologizing to every Muslim in the world for our heresy! 

We owe it to our troops to not only know what are end game is, but what is the payback for our nation.  Remember when the left said we were going to war in Iraq for Oil?  How did that work out for us?  We are the only developed nation without a lucrative oil contract from Iraq!  Why on earth didn’t we get fair oil contracts for our efforts?  Just how dumb are we to let the left keep determining our military strategies and political goals.  DON’T ANSWER THAT!

RD Pierini

Hat Tip:

CNS News:  http://cnsnews.com/news/article/two-thirds-us-deaths-afghanistan-have-occurred-obama-s-surge

Obama Transforming the World-The Middle East will be Succumb to Islamic Control

Obama is enacting his “Obama Doctrine” daily which basically includes support for secular uprisings against secular governments and a lack of support for secular uprisings against Islamic Regimes.   (See the Emerging Obama Doctrine, http://wp.me/pY51c-fs)  The only goal that could be expected to be reached with this doctrine is the eventual installation of Islamic Republics, like Iran,  throughout the Middle East and North Africa.  Obama pushed Mubarak out of Egypt while coddling Ahmadinejad in Iran when the Iranians tried to overthrow the Iranian Theocracy.  He did not support Ben Ali in Tunisia but did support the fundamental uprising there in Tunisia.  The same can be said for Jordan, Yemen, and other Middle Eastern Countries.  The end result will be total Islamic fundamentalist control over the region.

When the Middle East and North Africa become controlled by Islamic Republics, the West will face challenges that it is not prepared to face.

  1. Israel’s existence will be threatened daily by the Islamic Republics who will not recognize its right to exist and will seek to drive out the Israelis and give Israel to the Palestinians.
  2. The OPEC Oil Cartel will be dominated by Radical Islamic Fundamentalists who will seek to destroy the economies of the West by forcing high oil prices. 
  3. With Iran achieving the status of being a “Nuclear Nation”, along with its neighbor Pakistan, the Islamic Republics can basically blackmail western and eastern Europe in to submission on practically any level.  The nuclear technology will be spread throughout the Middle East and used against the west when needed via terrorist organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and others so the west will have to make a choice of whom to retaliate against, assuming Obama is no longer in office.  If he is, retaliation will not be his policy.

I heard a brilliant commentator yesterday saying that even if the Middle East became dominated by Islamic Fundamentalist, the U.S. get most of its oil from Venezuela, Mexico and Canada.  (Notice the U.S. itself was missing from this group.) Great, so we rely on Hugo Chavez in Venezuela who is closely aligned with Iran, Russia and China; and Mexico who is basically being ran by the drug cartels.  Assuming we don’t insult Canada like we have the rest of our allies under Obama, we may get some natural gas from our northern neighbor.  Does any rational thinking person think that Chavez and Mexico won’t side with the OPEC Oil Cartel? 

So what can we expect our world to look like when Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Jordan, Pakistan, and the others transition into one form or another of Islamic Republics?

  • Israel will be under constant threat of Annihilation by its neighbors.  The most likely scenario will be that Israel feels that it has to preemptively attack Iran, Palestine, Pakistan or another Arab-Islamic Nation to prevent them from attacking Israel first.  This will cause retaliation to occur and a whole domino effect will ensue.  Where will the West, China and Russia stand if this happens?  Will the West basically sacrifice Israel for their own short-term peace.  If Obama or another Progressive like him is in office, Israel is gone.
  • Oil Prices will level out at $150-$200 per barrel driving our gasoline past $10.00/gallon. 
    • Our trucking industry will be decimated due to rising fuel costs.
    • Shipping within the U.S. will be at premium rates and stifle commerce to a crawl.
    • Home heating and cooling costs will skyrocket to an average of $1,500-2,000 per month per household.
    • Regulated brownouts will be the norm everyday during all usage periods.
    • Our eBusinesses that are operated inside of the U.S. will not be able to function with a lack of consistent electricity to run their computer systems.  These server farms and operations will be moved out of the U.S. to where electricity can but purchased at reasonable rates with consistent supply.
    • Agribusiness will be at a standstill due to a lack of fuel and our ability to grow food will be seriously hampered.
    • The result will be that U.S. GDP will be reduced by 20-25% and the U.S. government will not be able to “stimulate” the economy as they will not be able to sell our debt as our economic standing in the world will be drastically reduced.  The U.S. government will probably have to sell our souls to a country like China to survive, whatever that will mean.
  • The Nuclear Proliferation of an Islamic Middle East will make the Cold War look like two kids playing in a sand box.  When the U.S. and the Soviet Union were basically on par to assure mutual Annihilation, the one saving grace was that neither side was basically suicidal.  A nuclear Islamic Middle East will not share that lack of suicidal tendencies.
    • Assume that the monarchy in Saudi Arabia survives 5 years while the majority of the Middle East is transformed into Islamic Republics.  Do you really think that a Shia Iran will allow a Sunni led Monarchy in Saudi Arabia stand without threatening nuclear attacks to unseat the monarchy?
    • Assume that food becomes scarce and the Middle Eastern Islamic Republics need food to feed their populations.  Don’t assume for an instance that they will not use the threat of a nuclear strike to obtain food or anything else they need to survive.
    • Assume that the U.N still exists in 5 years and China, Russia, United Kingdom, France and the U.S. try to send “paper” bombs in the form of U.N. resolutions to force the Islamic Middle East to do something.  Do you really think they will care if we pass a resolution?  They haven’t yet and they don’t even have massive nuclear weapons at this time.

So when I hear that the Muslim Brotherhood is not political nor is it radical and does not seek to install Islamic Republics throughout the Middle East and everywhere else in the world including the U.S., I don’t really laugh.  Ignorance will most likely enslave us under Islamic Rule one way or the other.  Monday, Muhammad Ghannem, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt said that Egypt should cut off the flow of oil to Israel and prepare for war against Isreal.  He went on to say, “the Egyptian people are prepared for anything to get rid of this regime (Israel).”  Our brilliant Ex-President Carter said of the Brotherhood:  “I think the Muslim Brotherhood is not anything to be afraid of in the upcoming (Egyptian) political situation and the evolution I see as most likely,” Carter said. “They will be subsumed in the overwhelming demonstration of desire for freedom and true democracy.”  This is the same guy who did not think that the overthrow of the Shaw of Iran would lead to the installation of an Islamic Regime in Iran.  We should really listen to him! (This was sarcasm in case you missed it) 

The core beliefs of the Muslim Brotherhood and its followers can be best summed up by this excerpt from Wikipedia:

“In the group’s belief, the Quran and Sunnah constitute a perfect way of life and social and political organization that God has set out for man. Islamic governments must be based on this system and eventually unified in a Caliphate. The Muslim Brotherhood’s goal, as stated by Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna was to reclaim Islam’s manifest destiny, an empire, stretching from Spain to Indonesia.[20] It preaches that Islam enjoins man to strive for social justice, the eradication of poverty and corruption, and political freedom to the extent allowed by the laws of Islam.”(1)

Obama us willingly leading us to slaughter by his embracing the radicalization of the Middle East and North Africa.  After living in the region for 8 years, our current path to destruction and capitulation is clear.  The West no longer has the stomach to defend itself and an Islamic Middle East will not hesitate to seize the opportunity to use this against us…

RD Pierini

 (1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_Brotherhood


Russia uses START Treaty to Blackmail the U.S. into Sharing Defence Shield Design

Well who would NOT have guessed that this administration would be hoodwinked by the Russians regarding the new START treaty and our implementation of our Missile Defence Shield.  The Russians are now threatening to pull out of the new treaty if we implement our missile defense system and not share that technology with them.  How appropriate though, on the 100 Anniversary of the Birth of Ronald Reagan that the 40th President’s dream of creating a “Star Wars” type of defence shield for the U.S. has become a reality but how sad it is that we elected the current President who will most like give into the Russians and turn over our technology to the Russians.  A defence shield is only good if it can remain effected as a DEFENSE!  If others with offensive weapons have access to the design and operational components of the defence mechanism, how long would it be before they engineer around our defence shield? 

But what the heck, we have only spent billions on building our defense shield for ourselves and our allies so why not give it away to our adversaries.  How long would it take Russia and China to give those same secrets away to Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and other nuclear nations once we hand over the keys to the kingdom to them?  And even more importantly, why has Obama stopped our deployment of our own defense shield in the US?  What do our allies in Europe and Asia think about our current posture and predicament?  Where is the open transparency and good will build up with our allies that Obama promised as a candidate.  Where is Bush when you need him?

Maybe we should just go the United Nations right now and surrender.  That may be preferrable to the systematic slow death this administration has planned for the U.S..

RD Pierini