Category Archives: The Economy

Updates: Fannie and Freddie and China/US Trade and Military Cold War

Occasionally some world and local events require us to circle back and look at perceptions, facts and events that we have contemplated before.  Today. two such items require revisiting.

Trump’s Addressing Root Cause of 2008 Crash-Freddie and Fannie

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Link to Original Post (2/24/2019): https://wp.me/pY51c-1g4

In February, contrary to “conventional wisdom”, (meaning Fake News aided and abetted by RINOs), was that President Trump would NOT seek to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and eliminate government control over these two quasi governmental agencies and by and large eliminate the potential liability for these agencies by we, the taxpayers.  Both entities were originally chartered as private entities in 1938 when they were created.

The “wisdom pundits” postulated that Secretary Mnuchin and others in the administration would convince the President that privatizing these agencies would be a bad idea.  The big government control freaks love the idea of being able to control each of us and generally, our largest personal asset, our homes, by controlling the liquidity of mortgages.  In 2008, the fallacy of keeping these two Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) was highlighted as we, taxpayers, had to bail out both of these entities after they knowingly, and with the aid of Republicans and Democrats, bought up junk mortgages and loans from banks who made sub-prime loans.  

Today, President Trump is pushing the privatizing of both of these entities in order to restore accountability and responsibility for their operations.  Their sole purpose is to provide a secondary market for mortgages and loans so banks “sell” these loans and restore the cash they need to give more new loans.  If you have refinanced or bought a home, you probably received a note that your loan was bought out by Freddie or Fannie and you probably were given the name of a new processing company to send you payments to.  Your original bank was then off of the hook for your loan and the responsibility was shifted to Fannie and Freddie, and you the taxpayer.

The fallacy of this quasi-government arrangement was that there were already private companies doing the same thing as Freddie and Fannie.  But, they could not compete with the purchase rates nor the lack of liability that Fannie and Freddie enjoyed.  So, the private market pretty much is insignificant.

President Trump want to recreate the private secondary market by removing the GSE status of these agencies and force them to compete on the open market.  Private investors would have never made the decision to buy worthless paper as these two agencies did in early 2000’s until the crash in 2008.  Congress will find it much harder to create a bubble like they did in the 2000’s that led to the housing crisis.  There will be no willing partners in the secondary market.  Also, it reduces Congress’s ability to fiddle with the mortgage market and create politically popular short-term bubbles.

Congratulations President Trump…

Chinese Communist Party and President Xi Jinping Stuck on World Domination Goals

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Link to Original Post  (9/1/2019): https://wp.me/pY51c-1iG

This week we saw that the Hong Kong leaders pulled back the Chinese Government Law that would have allowed Hong Kong Citizens to be sent to mainland China for interrogation and prosecution.  (Ask Muslims how this has worked out for them!)  But, the Hong Kong protestors are also demanding:

  1. Unconditional release of all protestors that have been arrested.
  2. Elimination of the characterization of the protests as Riots
  3. Independent inquiry into the actions of the police.
  4. Universal suffrage and control over Hong Kong by their citizens.

While President Xi was not publicly involved in this action, I believe that he convinced the hardliners in the Communist Party that a Tiananmen Square type of crackdown would only exacerbate the Hong Kong problem but also endanger any hope of a US trade deal and invite international condemnation.  I do not believe that, as of this writing, the Chinese are willing to go much further in terms of turning over more autonomy to the people in Hong Kong.  This would have ramifications within the Chinese mainland as well as Taiwan.

While this may signal some softening inside of China, it may not.  But, if Xi did overcome objections by the hardliners, there is some hope that Xi may also be able to push forward trade talks with the US.  I still am less than hopeful that President Trump and Xi will arrive at a point acceptable to the Chinese hardliners or President Trump.  But, I still do not believe that President Trump cares if he gets a deal or not.  He can achieve his goals by the end of his second term by revamping the Chinese goods supply chain and move US companies out of China.  This will severely hurt the Chinese economy, prop up the US economy, and cripple the Chinese ability to fund its military expansion.  

Don’t forget that President Trump has also ramped up our military sales to Taiwan to the dismay and consternation of the Chinese.  He is also protrolling the south Chinese Sea in the face of Chinese protestation.  Trump is poking a lot of different sticks in the Communist Chinese Eyes and they are quite dumbfounded as how to respond…

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

Stupidity Behind Hand Wringing Over “Treasury Yield Inversion”

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Don’t kid yourself that any of the Business Talking Heads on TV who are wringing their hands over US Treasury Bond Yield Inversion are smart, they are NOT!  You would think, or hope, that these same “brilliant” geniuses at least understood supply and demand but obviously they do not!

The morons on Wall Street say constantly that if the yield or interest you get from a 2 year Treasury bond is More than you would receive from a 10 year Treasury bond then we have a Bond Inversion that signals A RECESSION WITHIN 24-26 MONTHS!  Great but that little piece of wisdom has not historically not been true with any consistency and WORLD CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE TODAY ARE EXTREMELY UNIQUE

IF you buy German Bonds today, YOU HAVE TO PAY THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT INTEREST JUST TO HAVE THE HONOR OF BUYING THEIR BONDS (30 year)!  No, that was not a typo!  You read right, the German Government Bond carries negative interest and you have to pay them to buy their bonds.  Many of the other European countries are at zero interest or closing in on it.

So, where would you buy bonds if you were wanting to actually receive a yield (interest) on your investment?  YUP!  The good old US of A.  What happens when our bonds are the best buy in the world, yep, more people want to buy them.  What happens to the yield (interest) on our bonds in the short term.  Yep, it goes down as we don’t have to give as much in order to sell our bonds! 

So, bond investors are buying our short term bonds, 2 year, expecting that the rest of the world will come to their senses and do something to jump start their economies.  So, with people flooding to buy our 2 year bonds, those bond yields go down and may actually yield less than our 10 year bonds.  This is not rocket science and is not a predictor of anything other than how dumb you would have to be to buy a negative interest German Bond!

We have discussed this before but let me give you an easy example so you can maybe get your liberal friends to understand what the “geniuses” on Wall Street don’t.

Let’s say your bank offers you a CD that yields or pays you 3% interest.  The bank across the street offers CDs that yield or pays -1%.  Are you going to buy from your bank and get 3% interest or buy from the bank across the street and have TO PAY THEM 1% to buy their CD?  (Please say that you would buy from your bank!)  The more people who buy the 3% CD from your bank, the higher the chance that your bank will start reducing the interest rate since they have more buyers demanding their CD.  At some point, your bank will find that they can only lower their CD’s interest so far before they start to lose customers.  

The world economy was totally messed up by the end of 2010 following the deep world-wide recession of 2008.  Central Banks, like our Federal Reserve, began monetizing their debt by merely creating more paper money.  Our Federal Reserve during the Bush and Obama years ran up over $4 Trillion in debt, not counting Bush and Obama driving our national debt to $19 Trillion.  Europe, Asia and virtually all developed countries followed suit until today we have developed countries with negative growth, massive debt, and no market for their bonds that are sold to service these massive debts.  All but the US under Trump.  We are the only country exhibiting healthy growth.

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It is this imbalance that is causing our short term bonds to be scooped up by investors and driving their yield below our longer term bonds.  This is a sign of non US economies being week, not the US economy being week!

But let’s be clear.  The talking heads on TV are not basing their comments on economics but on politics.  They will do and say anything, including inciting a recession in the us, in order to defeat President Trump.  Don’t buy into their crap as it is based on the same “solid” foundation as their Russian Hoax or calling you a racist!

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

The New Leftist Political 3 R’s! Russia, Racist and Recession!

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First the Leftist turned our own Intelligence agencies, and those of our international allies against Candidate Trump, and then President Trump; After the RUSSIAN Hoax failed, these same Leftist tried to brand President Trump AND ALL OF HIS SUPPORTERS AS RACIST;  When that failed, they are now crying out that the great Trump Economy is heading into a RECESSION!  

All three political hit jobs have one thing in common.  None are True! 

  • The Russia Hoax was fabricated by the Clinton Campaign, aided by the Obama Administration, and abetted by many of our so-called European and Australian allies.  This will end up being the most blatant disregard for the rule of law in US history.  Even Robert Mueller and his 17 pit bull leftist prosecutors could not find one shred of evidence against the President, his campaign or his Presidency with which to indict anyone for conspiracy or obstruction of justice.  This hoax went deep inside our DOJ, FBI, CIA and other intelligence agencies and even corrupted the FISA process which is supposed to protect US citizens from unlawful surveillance.
  • Racist labeling of the President and his supporters have backfired and US citizens, Trump supporters and detractors, are tired of everything being labeled as racist.  It is so bad, that the Leftist morphed this word into WHITE NATIONALIST or WHITE SUPREMECIST!  The Trump economy has yielded the lowest unemployment numbers in the history of the US for Blacks and Hispanics.  Trump’s OPPORTUNITY ZONES target the rebuilding of mostly poor minority inner cities and poor rural areas.  The goal is to overcome decades of Leftist control over these areas that have left minorities and their communities in abject poverty in the midst of the worst school systems and drug infestations.  If Trump and his supporters were racists, why would be care about the plight of these areas?  Maybe the Leftist should be asked and forced to answer why they allowed these areas to decay, become rat infested, with substandard school system yielding over 50%+ illiteracy, and the residents with no hope for the future other than to hope that someone gives them money because they have long despaired and given up on America’s promise of Equal Opportunity!
  • Russia and Racist both failed so now the Democrat Leftists are ginning up a new hope that the Trump Economy is heading for a RECESSION.  They even embarrassed themselves by pointing out that the 2 year treasury bond yield was higher (for a few hours) than the 10 year treasury bond yield.  These morons stated that this “inversion” indicated that our economy would go into a recession, within 22-24 MONTHS, as it had in SOME PRIOR recessions.  Not all, SOME.  Well, I ate pasta just before the 1979. 1991 and 2008 recessions.  I guess I caused these recessions!  Don’t take my word for it, Dr. Sonal Desai, the Chief Investment Officer for the Templeton Investment Fund stated;  “In short: the economic data show no evidence that either the United States or the global economy is approaching a recession.”  

Why would the Democrat Left gin up a Recession and the fears of a Recession?  Simple!  2020

The President has turned this economy around and the US, its businesses and its citizens, especially blue collar and lower income people have benefitted the most.  There are no signs of a US recession.  You hear these Leftist pundits decry the Trump Tariffs against China as being a driving force for the upcoming recession.  Don’t confuse them with facts, especially the fact that the Chinese have devalued, manipulated, their currency below the tariff levels thus negating the impact on the US consumers.   Once again, if we tax a Chinese product that costs $1.00 10%, that product will now cost $1.10.  If the Chinese devalue their currency by 10%, then that product will still cost the US consumer $1.00.

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Jamie Diamond, Chairman of the Globalist Business Roundtable and Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Helped Structure the 2008 Recession Bubble!

Why do the Democrat leftist want to get rid of the Chinese tariffs?  Simple, the globalist, multi-national corporations like the status quo where they can maximize their profits by manufacturing in China where labor has been very low.  The more sinister view is that they really want to take down the US as the dominant economy in the world so these forces can dominate the world economy!  But I won’t go there now.  These business interest could care less if you lose your factory job because they cut a buck out of their costs!  Did you ever stop to think about what Obama and the leftist have said about jobs leaving America, never to return.  They said that it was a matter of companies HAVING to produce products wherever it was the cheapest so all  world consumers, even the US consumers, could get the best price.   Did you stop to ask just how a US factory worker who lost his or her job could afford to by anything now they do not have a job and a paycheck!  The leftist did not care if our middle class was decimated which it was.  The globalist goals were loftier and better for everyone, ESPECIALLY THEM.

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Then along came Donald J. Trump and his America First band of merry supporters.  First the Leftist laughed.  After all, they stomped out the Tea Party revolt!  How hard could it be to stomp out Donald Trump and his DEPLORABLES?  Very hard indeed.

Don’t let this latest Left-Wind hysteria regarding Recession worry youWe ARE the strongest economy in the world.  Our economy is the only hope the rest of the world has to avoid problems in their own countries.  We consume 25% of the world’s output and are now the dominant oil and gas producer in the entire world.  We have re-established our steel industries as well so no nation can now threaten us with energy or manufacturing  boycotts or price fixing.  

We will probably at some point have a slowdown or even a recession.  But for one political party and their leftist cronies and media to hope and promote the idea that a recession is inevitable and rapidly approaching, just when many Americans are starting to live the dream they thought was dead, is sick and demented.  

Enjoy the economic revival.  Why Would You Want to be Miserable Like the Leftist Democrats and their Media!  

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

Hat Tips

https://www.franklintempleton.com/investor/article?contentPath=html/ftthinks/en-us-retail/cio-views/on-my-mind-yield-curve-hysteria.html&msclkid=54f7763ccfd41391d8952b6065a3d947&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=T-TL-FTThinks-CIO%20Views-Yield%20Curve%20Hysteria-UNB&utm_term=recession&utm_content=CIO%20Views-Recession%20PHR&gclid=CL3v3MPzkuQCFQ2mZQodvtsBdw&gclsrc=ds

 

Trump Vs The Federal Reserve (Fed)

Federal Reserve “Palace”, Eccles Building Washington DC

Are you one of those who listen to the political pundits bad-mouthing Trump for criticizing the Federal Reserve policies and its Chairman Powell?  If you think the President is wrong to criticize the FED, consider the following.

The Federal Reserve (FED) is an extra-constitutional institution that was created in 1913 to stop financial crisis and provide stability to our nation’s credit, its banks, and to protect consumers.  Ironically the FED did nothing to prevent or end the Great Depression, and the recessions that have plagued this nation including the recessions of 1980 and 2008.  Following the recession of 1980 that was accompanied by runaway inflation, the FED was given additional powers to “control” inflation.  In short, our nation’s entire fiscal health, and the health of our banking systems, rely on an institution that is not mentioned in the US Constitution; is totally governed by 7 unelected citizens; and is advised only by 12 individuals from the banking industry that the FED is supposed to manage.  

The Fed is led by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) comprised of seven Presidential appointed “governors”.  Below the are two additional levels of UNELECTED BUREAUCRATS.  Below the FRB, is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).  Its membership is comprised of the seven members of the FRB plus five of the twelve  Federal Reserve Bank Presidents.  The Federal Advisory Council comprised of twelve REPRESENTATIVES OF THE BANKING INDUSTRY.  The FAC “advises” the FRB on all matters under its jurisdiction.  

Finally, the Federal Reserve Act created Twelve (not sure why they were hung up on the number twelve) Federal Reserve Banks, each of which is responsible for member banks located in its district.  (This was before national and international banks!)  

Each of these FED banks has a President appointed by its board of director.  While District Federal Reserve Banks are purported to be independent from its member banks, the MEMBER BANKS DO ELECT SIX OF THE NINE OF THE REGIONAL FEDERAL BANK’S BOARD!  

Sorry for the dissertation on the structure of the FED but the key points are:

  • The Fed is Extra-Constitutional
  • The Fed management is devoid of any elected individuals
  • The FED is controlled by 7 non-elected officials that are appointed by Presidents.
  • The banking industry itself controls the boards or members of Federal Reserve Advisory Council and the District Federal Reserve Banks.
  • The FED creates banking regulation and regulates private banks, PERIOD.  No elected official or agency of the Executive Branch has any sway over these banking regulations.  
  • Yes, the President can nominate the members of the FED Board and the nominees have to be confirmed by the Senate but any actions undertaken by the FED is not subject to Congressional or Executive Oversight!

So, the Federal Reserve can “create” money; manage how much of our cash is available to world; set funds rate which sets interest rates; print  money then buy back US debt also known as Quantitative Easing and monetizing the debt!  All this without any check or balance, nor anyone on the FED being elected by US voters!

YOU THINK THE FEDERAL DEBT IS $22.3 TRILLION!  NOPE, THE FED HAS “BORROWED (PRINTED) ANOTHER $4 TRILLION FOR A TOTAL NATIONAL DEBT OF $26.3 BY USING QUANTITATIVE EASING.  

Should the President Publicly Challenge the FED?  Someone Better!

During the Obama Presidency, the FED not only pumped $4 Trillion into the economy by borrowing (printing) money, they also drove interest rates down to zero Then when President Trump came in, the FED began to pay down, (remove cash from the economy), and then went through 6 additional Fed Rate increases (this increases your credit card and mortgage Interest rates) beginning in March 2016 raising the interest rate to 1%, until December of 2018 raising the funds rate to 2.5%. 

All of these actions depress the economy! 

These actions by the FED were justified as making sure inflation did not get out of control as the Trump economy was booming!  What, there wasn’t and still isn’t any inflation!

What you need to know is that raising interest rates slows economic growth, and what supposed “conventional wisdom” defines as inflation!    It is a mechanism that has been used to curb INFLATION.  Paying down the monies borrowed by the FED also slows down economic growth by taking cash out of the market. The FED set a target of 2% inflation following the Jimmy Carter presidency that featured an exploded inflation rate accompanied by the FED exploding interest rates to over 16%.    During the Trump administration and the economic growth under Trump in 2019, teh economy has yielded an inflation rate AT A LOWER RATE THAN THE 2% FED TARGET!  Thiws is why The President keeps saying that especially the last Fed interest rate hike in 2018 was deflationary and seriously damaged the growth of our economy.

The FED, the National Debt, and Globalism:

Why is the FED fighting against the Trump economy?  Why is the National Debt still rising?  and Where is the FED in all of this?

Remember, the FED is totally comprised of and controlled by International bankers.  The vast majority are globalist in that they believe that a “balance” among nations economically is good for all.  The only problem is that the FED charter has nothing to do with making sure nations, other than America, are financially sound.  Some argue that international economic stability is our responsibility.  Then why don’t we have a say in the really dumb decisions made by EU nations, China, Russia and other nations that are driving their own economies into the toilet?  Why is our economy held hostage by poor decisions being made by other countries!

Why is our National Debt still rising?  Two reasons, One is an corrupt Congress that does not have the guts to change its own rules allowing spending to keep climbing due to automatic increases each year.   Two, a FED, aided and abetted by Congress, the US Chamber of Commerce, and the Business Roundtable, that constantly depresses the US economy and makes sure that our growth and ensuing tax revenues do not strengthen our economy vis-à-vis other nation’s economic growth.  If the US economy is flat, then even if Congressional spending is flat, we can never pay down our national debt.  IF the Trump economy can generate an annual increase in our Gross Domestic Product in the 3-4% range, tax revenues will increase and eventually start chipping away at our national debt.  (Why not raise taxes?  Raising taxes decrease tax revenue.  Tax decreases increases tax revenues.  This is a historical fact!) 

The FED makes sure that our international globalist can move their investments and businesses out of the US into countries that increase their profits.  THE FED AND THESE SELF-INTERESTS AND FOREIGN NATIONS promote foreign countries to maintain tariffs on US imports further depressing US growth and US job promotion.  

President Trump’s

BUY AMERICAN, HIRE AMERICAN

is the Antithesis to the goals of the FED, the Globalists, the US Chamber of Commerce, the Business Roundtable and the Progressive Left.

This is why the President is taking on the FED chairman Powell directly and in the public square.  Continued rate hikes without inflation in excess of 3% is recessionary and contrary to the US National Interest.  The President understands that no matter what he does in terms of regulation and tax cuts, the FED can counterbalance his moves by merely printing more money or raising interest rates.  The President’s economy is generating inflation because for every job gained, PRODUCTIVITY per hour is increased.  For every good produced in this country versus China or elsewhere, GDP and tax revenues into the US treasure are increased!  

TARIFFS, NOT REALY A TAX ON US CITIZENS.

You hear every day that US Tariffs on other nations good being brought into the us are TAXES ON US CONSUMERS.  Not True in the Long Run and Not really true in the short to medium term.  Why?  Ask yourself, “How can the US inflation be less than 2% if ur Tariffs are increasing the cost of the good we import to any significant degree?  Answer, they are not! 

The exporting country, say China, cannot afford to loose production nor revenue due to US tariffs.  Also remember, that China is a communist country whose economy is totally controlled by its communist party.  So, China will devalue their own currency to offset some or all of the tariffs.  How does this work?  Say they export an item to the US that costs them $1.00.  We put a 25% tax on that item so the cost of that item would be $1.25.  By devaluing their currency by say 10%, the real tariff cost for the item is $1.125.  Then, in order for the Chinese factory to not loose the $0.125 per item, the Chinese government creates a subsidy for the factory in the amount of $0.125 per item.  In the end, the item cost is still $1.00 to US Consumers.  This is exactly what is happening to China today!  

In the short term, most of the exporters of Chinese goods have forward contracted with Chinese manufacturers to by their goods at a set price over a period of time.  Most are hedged against the Chinese currency to avoid loses due to Chinese currency manipulation.  So, in the short-term, the goods sold to US consumers do not carry a price increase. 

For items like electronics, South Korea and Japan have forced prices down by $150 or so per television over the past 18 months for example.  Our tariffs on Chinese TVs would have no impact on US consumers for specific items as they can buy the less expensive Korean or Japanese TVs.  In the medium to long term, these exporters can seek other country’s suppliers especially Viet Nam, Japan and South Korea.  During this same time frame, the Chinese manufacturers who have non-Chinese partners, will see their non-Chinese partners move their investments to other countries or even the US to avoid the tariff impacts.  Many already have plants in multiple non-Chinese countries.

So, President Trump has to fight for the US consumer on many, many fronts.  The FED is certainly at the top of the list as they can kill the impact of Trump economic moves and even drive the US into a Recession.  The FED can also manipulate our currency and overvalue it and kill our ability to export, especially agricultural goods that are priced on international markets.  

Congress is also a stumbling block as they typically support their big donors, regardless of party, and these include the US Chamber of Commerce, the Business Roundtable, the Koch Bros. and others.  While they give lip service to supporting America First, just listen to these political hacks when Trump threatens tariffs on Mexico and others.  In this case, the day Trump threatened to impose a 5% tariff on Mexico, their Peso was devalued at over 5% thus negating the impact of the tariffs in the short-term.  Congress will always stand behind global interests, until we institute term limits and expel these hacks from Congress.

Keep Up the Good Fight!

So, when you hear the talking heads and political hacks decrying Trump Tariffs, consider the sources.  Trump knows that the Chinese tariffs may in time case some of the Chinese goods to be more expensive for US consumers.  In the meantime, he has ramped up US energy production to drive down gas prices for consumers and manufactures alike in order to buffer potential Chinese price increases. 

What always gets me is to hear pundits say that it is better for US consumers to be able to by cheap goods from China than to have those goods produced in the US.  Good for Who?  If you have been laid off at a factory and receiving unemployment or welfare, your purchasing power has been seriously reduced.  Further, rather than you paying taxes and increasing revenue into our treasury, and keep circulating your wage income within the US, you are taking from our treasury and the dollars we are spending with China leave this country and are never recirculated within the US!  Moving jobs out of the US no matter the cost of a tennis shoe is never a net benefit to this nation.  

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Note:  if you have a chance, read “Why America Will Fail-Unless the People Take Back Their Country” by clicking on this link: https://wp.me/pY51c-yo  It will explain in more depth the structure of the FED and other institutions and how many of our economic safeguards have been removed intentionally by the globalist.

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

Hat Tips

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve

https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/122203.asp

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2019

https://www.quora.com/What-should-be-the-ideal-inflation-rate-for-country-like-India-and-why

Top 10 Countries with Largest National Debt-to-GDP in 2018

 

Illegal Immigration & National Debt Killing the American Dream

 

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Why discuss Illegal Immigration and the National Debt together?  The two topics are an excellent juxtaposition of emotion driven bad policies that lead to a lowering of overall freedom, the lowering of the standard of living for those the government is supposed to serve, and the eventual takeover of government by the government and its elites.  Make no mistake, illegal immigration and the national debt are both primary tools in the socialist toolbox. 

You can’t “Fundamentally Transform” this Nation without Destroying its Social and Economic Foundations First!

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Costs of Illegal Immigration

Trying to determine the actual costs of illegal immigration is as difficult as trying to determine how many illegal aliens (IA) are in the United States at any one time. The  conservative Federation for American Immigration Reform pegs the IA population at 12.5 million while other alternative sources put the number much higher, 20-30 million.  Wikipedia estimates that the IA population could be as high as 20 Million.  12.5M seems to be conservative and is quoted by the left and right.  But, if the population is 20 million, then the overall net costs could be higher.

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But, in the past two years, we have seen a dramatic shift in the make-up of illegal immigration at our Southern border and this shift is adding even higher costs to the processing and care of the new illegal immigration population.  Historically, most of the illegal immigrants came from Mexico into the US.  Some sought to stay here permanently while others came on a seasonal basis for seasonal work.  Today, the majority of illegal immigrants are seeking asylum and are coming out of Central America and consist of family units or unaccompanied minors.  

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This shift puts a tremendous new burden on our Customs and Border Patrol, Health and Human Services, and other federal agencies.  Care of minors and family units requires extensive healthcare services as well as investigative services to ensure that the adults with the children are actually the parents or guardians of the children.  Today, there are over 2,000 IA who have been detained at the border are now quarantined as they have infectious diseases such as mumps, chicken pox, and other diseases that have been pretty much eradicated in the US.  IA net costs estimates do not include any costs for treating US citizens who have been infected due to contacts with IA and their children.

Net Immigration Costs-12.5M IA

That said, lets assume that the 2018 costs of illegal immigrants entering and living in the US is still indicative of today’s 2019 costs.  At a high level, there are a number of cost components that are provided by the Federal Government then by State and Local Governments.  (The percentage shown next to the cost is the % of the Federal Government Spending ($4.1TT) less Social Security and Medicare ($1.63T) or $2.47T total spending)

  • Federal Costs of Illegal Aliens: $45.8B (1.85%)
    • Federal Education-$1.6B
    • Federal Medical Costs-$17.1B
    • Federal Justice Expenditures-$13.1B
    • Federal Welfare Programs-$5.8B
      • Meals in Schools-$1.003B
      • Supplemental Nutrition Assistance-$1.96B
      • Women, Infants and Children Care-$1.098B
      • Temporary Assistance for Needy Families-$1.785B
    • Federal Tax Receipts (all taxes) From Illegal Aliens-$22.1B
    • Net Federal Costs from Illegal Aliens: $30.4B (1.23%)
  • State and Local Costs of Illegal Immigrants:  $88B
    • State Educational Expenditures;  $44.4B
    • State Medical Expenditures:  $12.1B
    • State Justice Expenditures: $10.8B
    • State Welfare Expenditures: $2.9B
    • State Taxes Collected (All taxes) from Illegal Aliens: $3.5B
    • Net State and Local Costs from Illegal Aliens:  $85B
  • Net Federal, State and Local Impact of Illegal Aliens:  $115.4B (4.7%) (Note 1)

Hidden Costs of Illegal Immigration

There are many other costs that are not quantified such as those associated with having to provide an extensive Multi-Lingual components to our overall education system due to IA children.  Increased medical costs to citizens as a result of formerly eradicated diseases being reintroduced into our general population.  With over 12M IAs willing to work for low wages, what is the cost to our economy and to our workers for IAs artificially depressing our wages?    Well, assuming IA keeps lower incomes depressed by $3.00/hour, and there are 12M illegal aliens in the workplace, this would decrease overall wages and our GDP by $74,880,000,000.  Yes, that is BILLIONS.  Adding this to the net cost of supporting IA you are almost to $200B Per Year! No wonder the left want to artificially set the minimum wage to $15.00/hr!

The other cost is that of law enforcement.  Open border supporters state falsely that ‘immigrants” commit less crime that do US Citizens.  This is false narrative as they add legal immigrants with the illegal immigrant numbers; do not include crimes such as document fraud, fraudulently applying for government benefits, drug offenses and offenses committed in sanctuary cities that are ignored altogether.  

The bottom line is that illegal immigrants are 3 times more likely to commit a crime than a US Citizens and lawfully present aliens.  

Negative Impact of Illegal Immigration

One key takeaway is that IAs do NOT contribute to the US economy and are actually a negative in terms of cash flow in the amount of $115,400,000,000 per year!  That is equal to about $375 per year for every citizen, men, women and children in the US! 

President Trump submitted a Budget for the Veterans Affairs Department for 2019 in the amount of $198,000,000,000.  The IA net costs if eliminated would pay for over half of the VA costs! 

In spite of what you hear to the contrary, IAs receive the following services from the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT today.  This does NOT include the services that they receive from State and Local governments that are over and above these Federal services:

  • They receive $943,200,000 for Primary and Secondary Education Support;
  • They receive $541,694,040 for LEP-Limited English Proficiency Title III support;
  • They receive $206,140,000 for Migrant Schooling Title IC support.
  • They receive $$8,200,000,000 in Uncompensated Hospital Expenditure costs;
  • They receive $1,242,990,372 for Medicaid Births (children are automatically US citizens)
  • Their healthcare contributes $3,458,475,000 to Medicaid Fraud.
  •  They receive $4,234,129,200 in Medicaid for US Born Kids of Illegal aliens. (children are automatically US citizens)
  • They add $1,240,000,000 to our Federal Incarceration costs.
  • They add $3,218,000,000 to our Enforcement and Removal Costs.
  • They add $5,968,729,360 to our Customs and Border Protection costs (much could be eliminated with a wall.)
  • They add $1,126,840,000 to Other ICE operations.
  • They add $210,000,000 to our State Criminal Alien Assistance Program.
  • They add $168,120,000 to our Executive Office for Immigration Review.
  • They add $1,200,000,000 to our Alien Minor program.
  • They add $16,920,000 to our Byrne Grant Program (note 1)
  • They add $1,003,000,000 to our Meals in Schools.
  • They add $1,963,416,000 to our Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. (SNAP)
  • They add $1,097,829,360 to the Women Infants and Children program.
  • They add $1,785,000,000 to the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program.

Illegal immigration is expensive and a drag on our economy in terms of costs and just as important, it is a drag on the wages of our low-end wage earners who struggle to make ends meet ($75B/yr).  Illegal immigrants do not pay their way and are a drag on our economy in terms of depressing wages, lowering our GDP, adding to our national debt, and endangering our citizens with higher per capital violent crime rates than that of US citizens.

********************

Our National Debt Crisis

See the source image

Most American taxpayers complain about taxes in all forms while glossing over the US National Debt and its potential impact on their lives.  Today, we, you and me, are on the hook for over $22 Trillion in debt and each man, woman and child in the US owes over $67,000 of this debt!  The annual interest for 2019 on the debt is $363 Billion which is almost 8% of the total Federal Budget for 2019!  With $363 Billion, you could fund about 50% of the military; or, you could fund 62% of Medicare; or, you could fund 39% of Social Security; or, you could fund the Entire Discretionary Spending for the 2020 Presidential budget for the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Education, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Justice, and Labor!  So, interest expense isn’t cheap!  

Separate Out Social Security and Medicare From the US Government Budget!

The Federal Budget is so convoluted that it is incomprehensible to the average person, even those with an accounting degree.  In order to “simplify” the Federal Budget, we should separate those programs that are supported by taxpayer contributions into their own “accounts” as you would in business.  The two largest, Social Security and Medicare should be separated and any program, such as Social Security Disability, should be moved out of Social Security and into a safety net group of benefits that would include Medicaid, SS Disability, CHIP, ACA and other marketplace subsidies, and all forms of welfare including SNAP (food stamps).  SOCIAL SECURITY, BY LAW CANNOT EVER ADD TO THE NATIONAL DEBT, PERIOD!  MEDICARE CAN.

By separating these two programs out of the Central Federal Budget citizens will be able to see and monitor of these two large programs, including any shortfall in funding they may experience.  IF YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE A PROBLEM, YOU CAN FIX IT! 

Another benefit would be to see and understand that the Social Security Fund holds 50% of the US Intergovernmental debt totaling over $3 Trillion dollarsThe Medicare Fund holds over 3% or $184,800,000,000 of US Intergovernmental securities.  In other words, your funds are LOANING money, at a ridiculously low rate to the Federal Government in order for it to operate!  The reader should understand that by law the Social Security and Medicare trustees can only invest in low yielding US treasury securities.  They are not allowed to invest in the US economy in lets say the S&P 500 that yields orders of magnitude times that of the US securities.   For example.  In 1928 you invested $100 each in the S&P 500, 3 Month T-Bills, and 10 Year Treasury Bonds.  In 2018, They would be worth:  (Note 3)

      • S&P 500:  $382,850 (minus my $100 investment)
      • 3 Month T-Bill:  $2,063 (minus my $100 investment)
      • 10 Year Treasury Bond: $7,308 (minus my $100 investment)

It is easy to see that by restricting the Social Security and Medicare trust funds to the 10 Year Treasury Bonds we are getting screwed big time in terms of return on investments.  I was born in 1945 and if we look at these same funds today, they would have a present value of:

  • S&P 500:  $382,624 (minus my $100 investment)
  • 3 Month T-Bill:  $1,944 (minus my $100 investment)
  • 10 Year Treasury Bond: $7,129 (minus my $100 investment)

Politicians are Lying to You!

Your politicians, especially on the Progressive-Left but also many conservatives, tell you that it is too risky to invest in our economy!  The amounts shown above include the past 90 years and also include the Great Depression, many recessions including the 2008 Great Recession!  Even including those catastrophic financial meltdowns, the S&P 500 went from our $100 investment to $382,850!  Rather than projecting that Social Security and Medicare funds would be depleted by 2030, those funds would be secure into the next century if even 50% of the money had been invested in the S&P 500!  Heaven forbid if we actually saw an increase in the Social Security benefits! 

The other benefit would be that the Social Security and Medicare funds could FUND OR RETIRE THE ENTIRE US DEBT! 

Back to the Budget and the National Debt

OK, let’s remove Social Security and Medicare out of the President’s FY 2020 Budget and see where we are.  (We are using the President’s budget as it is the latest indicator we have for revenue and spending.  BUT, with a Democrat House, the spending numbers for social programs are going to be lobbied for increases.)

      • 2020 Expenditures-$4.746T
        • 2020 Social Security ($1.102T)
        • 2020 Medicare ($.679T)
      • Net 2020 Budget Expenditures ($2.965T)
      • 2020 Revenue-$3.645T
        • 2020 Social Security Revenue: ($.949T)
        • 2020 Medicare Revenue:  ($.289T)
      • Net 2020 Budget Revenue: ($2.407T)
      • 2020 Deficit Less SS and Medicare ($.558T)
      • 2020 Deficit With SS and Medicare ($1.101T) Note 4

Remember, both Social Security and Medicare are still projected to be solvent per current funding through 2030.  Social Security by law CANNOT add to the National Debt.

So, what is left in the budget?

  • Discretionary Spending
    • Defense Spending:  $726B
    • Non-Defense Spending:  $700B
  • Total Discretionary Spending:  $1.426T
  • Mandatory Programs (Less SS & Medicare)
    • Medicaid, ACA & other Subsidies:  $418B
    • Basic Health Exch. Subsidies:  $50B
    • Other Mandatory Programs:  $587B
    • Infrastructure Allowance:  $5B
    • Interest:  $479B
  • Total Mandatory (Less SS & Medicare): $1.539T
  • Total Spending:  $2.965T
  • Total Receipts (Less SS & Medicare):  ($2.407T)
  • Total Deficit:  ($558T)

Discretionary Spending:

It is easy to understand that the first bucket is Defense Spending.  President Trump’s budget calls for $726 Billion to be spent on the military FY 2020.  But what is the Non-Defense spending that is $700 Billion?   Well, this is the cost to run the government and includes treasury, education, VA, etc..  It is basically the entire non-military executive branch operating costs. 

The President’s budget includes cuts to every executive department while taking money out of the Corps of Engineers and the DHS for additional wall funding.  Congress fought President Trump in the last two fiscal years against his CUTTING the cost of government via cutting non-defense discretionary spending.  There are tons of fat in the executive bureaucracy, and even whole departments that could be eliminated, but until we get a fiscally conservative Congress the President will have to do the best he can.

Mandatory Spending Programs (Not Including Social Security & Medicare):

This grouping adds $1.539 Trillion in spending to the budget.  The description, “Mandatory” is a bit misleading as the definition is spending that Congress legislates outside of the annual appropriations process, usually less than once a year In short, these programs are mainly on auto-pilot with automatic increase triggers of 6-8% Per year!  So when you hear that the President is “cutting” some of this spending, he is actually asking for a REDUCTION IN THE PERCENT INCREASE IN SPENDING.  THE ACTUAL DOLLARS ARE INCREASED! 

Below is a chart of all Mandatory Spending including Social Security and Medicare to help you visualize what is included from 2015.  Most of the non revenue generating healthcare amount shown, $985.7 billion, is for Medicaid.  Food and agriculture is included in this protected group as this department administers Food Stamps (SNAP).  Also included is the cost for the VA, Federal Unemployment, transportation and federal employee benefits.

Deficit Reduction:

2% Plan:  So, how can we eliminate the $558 Billion dollar Discretionary & Mandatory Spending Deficits Spending and start paying down the deficit?  President has included in the 2020 budget is “two-penny” plan where all spending would be cut by 2% except for the military, Social Security and Medicare.  The goal is to eliminate deficit spending within 5-7 years through budget cuts and economic growth.  Once deficit spending turns positive, then the deficit will start to shrink.  

Welfare Reform:  All Welfare programs, Medicaid, CHIP, SNAP etc.,  need to be streamlined and simplified under a single agency to eliminate duplication and abuse.  Many estimates point to $200B in waste and fraud alone in these programs.

Stop Illegal Immigration:  Build the wall, eliminate chain immigration, Visa Lotteries, open amnesty laws, make E-Verify mandatory and with stiff penalties, deport Visa overstays, and make it illegal for illegal aliens to receive any welfare assistance.  By eliminating the costs of illegal immigration discussed at the top of this article, we can save an additional $200B and provide decent wage increases for entry-level positions and add to our GDP.

Eliminate Department Overlap:  Eliminate Wasteful or Duplicate Federal Department Functions:  The department of Energy, Education, Veterans Affairs, Health and Human Services, Interior, Agriculture and others can be streamlined and in some cases folded into another agency.  Most function as grant administrators rather than perform an actual function or add to the overall output of our economy.  Energy, Agriculture and Interior have a lot of synergy and could be combined;  Labor and Education are synergistic by their very nature.  

There are many more cost saving measures that can be undertaken but it will take a fiscally conservative Congress to work with the President to accomplish them.  The current crop of socialist that are overtaking the Democrat Party are not going to sit by and watch this happen quietly!

Add US Economy Investments to Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds:  

Open both funds so the administrators can start investing some of the revenue and surplus into market securities such as the S&P 500.  Gradually allow a percentage of market securities to be included to perhaps a cap of 50%.  This would allow for the 10 year treasury bonds to provide somewhat a buffer in the event of a prolonged market downturn.  But, even during the Depression, the 10 year bonds did not do any better than market securities.  

This move would allow Social Security and Medicare to become self-funding in perpetuity.  Medicare does need some streamlining and cost cutting but the current administration is already addressing much of this and their moves will lower healthcare costs overall to the US consumer.  Just think, instead of your “$100 investment” in 10 Year Treasuries being worth $7,308 over the past 90 years, you could have added $191,275 to your $100 investment! (50% investments in the S&P 500).  Politicians will screw this one up big time!

Conclusions:

The crisis at the border is not only a current immigration, asylum, humanitarian, health and crime issue, it is a long-term economic and social crisis.  The costs and the wage depression impacts are unsustainable to say the least.  The very core social fabric is at risk as well as our historical norms and mores.  Eventually the costs and wage depression associated with illegal immigration will swell to $500,000,000,000 if current levels of illegal entry are not checked substantially.

The national debt is real and it is important.  It is also too much for the current Congress to deal with.  Without a fiscally conservative, gutsy group of men and women in Congress they will keep kicking the ball down the field and ignoring the debt.  You should know that without doing much of anything, the annual federal spending will rise at 6-8% per year as the Congress has basically put the budget process on auto-pilot!  The President’s “2-Cent” plan does not have a chance in this 116th Congress as the House Democrats will block it and the Mitch McConnell wimpy RINOs don’t have the stomach for a fight that is truly for the soul of this country.

2020 is right around the corner.  All this can be solved by your vote for fiscally conservative politicians…

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

Note 1:  Federal Spending used much of the State and local spending for these programs originate with the Federal Government.

Note 2: The Edward Byrne Memorial State and Local Law Enforcement Assistance Grant Program or the Byrne Formula Grant Program is a federal grant provided to states from the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) division. This grant aims to help law enforcement agencies enforce and strengthen local and state laws designed for serious offenders or violent criminals. 

Note 3: Link to Investment Table Comparisons:  http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html

Note 4:  Some SS and Medicare revenue and expenditures include non core outlays for disability and other welfare expenditures.

Hat Tips

https://cis.org/

https://www.fairus.org/issue/publications-resources/fiscal-burden-illegal-immigration-united-states-taxpayers

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-outbreaks/more-than-2000-migrants-quarantined-in-u-s-detention-centers-due-to-disease-outbreaks-idUSKBN1QR0EW

http://fairus.org/issue/illegal-immigration/scaap-data-suggest-illegal-aliens-commit-crime-much-higher-rate-citizens

http://www.usdebtclock.org/#

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_United_States

https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp

 

Democrats-A Party Without A Cause In 2018

Illegal Immigration Is the “Salvation” for Democrats in 2018/2020, Really!

See the source image

There is no doubt that the Democrat Party has locked itself in as an “Identity Party” by polarizing various target groups such as women, LGBT, Blacks, non-Christians, and Hispanics, and anyone else they can turn into victims.  In doing so, the only way to herd their flock into lockstep is to make sure that the economy is mediocre or bad so many of their flock are seemingly disenfranchised, that their flock groups feel threatened by the evil conservatives who are trying to return them to slavery, economic or social bondage.  The toughest task the Democrat herders face is to insure that one or more of their groups are not at odds with other group(s).  

During the Obama years of economic stagnation and the demise of opportunity and economic and social advancement, the Democrat groups pretty much towed the Democrat progressive line and kept their hands out for government subsidies to seemingly make up for their lack of opportunity caused by anyone else but themselves and their wonderful Democrat/Progressive masters. 

But!  Donald Trump stormed onto the scene with a message of economic hope, true socio-economic opportunity, and a clear emphasis on the middle class regardless of sex, sexual orientation, religion, or race.  He even challenged Black voters, “What the Hell do you have to lose?”  Trump cracked the once solid Democrat identity politics herd by introducing the chance for a better life regardless of which herd group you had been corralled into by the Democrats.  Further, Trump’s message of safety, strength, and pride lifted many out of despair that had heretofore not participated in the political process of voting.  Even the once solid Democrat stronghold of Union membership shifted from the Democrat herd to Trump with Trump garnering 42% of the union vote!

But, where does illegal immigration fit into this discussion and specifically to the 2018 mid-terms and the 2020 Presidential race?

The Coastal Democrat/Progressives have tripled down on illegal immigration and illegal immigrants living in the US in the past 18 months.  Sanctuary States and Cities have become the norm for the left and right coasts to the exclusion and detriment of the legal residents of those states.  Those same states have tripled down on socialist, high taxation, and welfare state, policies that have created a degree of homelessness never seen before and the death of their middle class that cannot survive the high taxation, low employment opportunity, and unrealistic housing costs.  They are substituting their once strong citizen middle class with illegal aliens.

California is leading the legal battles against the Trump Administration and are outright defying Federal Laws on immigration and immigration enforcement.  The California Governor and his administration have passed laws in direct conflict with US Immigration law and the US Constitution.  Recently, the Mayor of Oakland, a prior member of the Governor’s staff, warned illegal immigrants that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) would be arresting illegal immigrants who had committed crimes and were subject to deportation.  This warning allowed over 800 ICE targeted illegal criminal aliens to avoid capture and deportation and to remain in the Bay Area to prey on local, legal and illegal members of the community.

So, by promoting Sanctuary States, Cities, and Counties, the Democrat Party has decided to place the fate of illegal aliens, including criminal illegal aliens, at the forefront of their party to the exclusion of their prior target groups such as women, LGBT, Blacks, non-Christians, legal Hispanics and victims in general.  47% of likely voters in these states oppose their State’s sanctuary designation!  The safety of all women, LGBT, Blacks, non-Christians, and legal Hispanics are put at risk by these policies.  The coastal State’s spending on supporting illegals is robbing their citizens of funds, while being the highest taxes States in the US, to improve their communities while creating a homelessness problem in once beautiful cities is a blight unlike the ghettos in third world countries.

See the source image  

Impact On Other Democrat Party Identity Groups

Prioritizing and promoting an influx of illegal immigration into a job market drives down wages for legal residents, especially for Blacks and Hispanics.  This policy also increases the burden on local schools and drives down the quality of education and the safety for legal students.  Welfare services are likewise stretched and draw down on the State and local governments resources.  Coddling illegal criminal aliens and preventing them from being deported puts all of the State’s residents at risk and the Democrat target identity groups are not immune from these risks, in fact, the poorer Black and Hispanic families are often the target of these criminals.

Just to be clear on how great a risk criminal illegal aliens are, consider the following.  Illegal aliens, criminal and non-criminal, make up only 3.7% of the total US population But, they have been charged with and/or convicted of 13.6% of the total crimes committed in the entire US;  responsible for 12% of the murders, 20% of kidnappings, 16% of all drug dealing, and thousands who have been convicted of sex crimes and not yet deported.  

So, how are the Democrats going to use Illegal immigration as their flagship issue in 2018/2020 when this element of our population:

  • Drives down wages for Democrat leaning Blacks.
  • Drives down wages for Democrat leaning legal Hispanics.
  • Robs this nation and their constituents of a net $115 Billion dollars per year in government services provided to support the illegal alien community.
  • Detracts from equality issues for women,  Blacks, Hispanics, the LGBT community, Muslims and other Democrat victims.
  • Robs inner cities of valuable funding that is siphoned off to support illegal aliens rather than being allocated to community development and safety.
  •  Diverts law enforcement resources an decreases the safety of its female,  Blacks, Hispanics, the LGBT community, and Muslims. 

I posit that the Democrat strategy to promote the causes for illegal aliens is a big loser for the Democrat/Progressive chances in 2018/2020!

Republicans in 2018 can only defeat themselves which is not out of the realm of possibility.  If they would adhere to Trump and his agenda, they could pick up 8 more Senate seats and hold the House.  The Republican majority in the Senate needs to start acting like a party in power by confirming all of Trump’s appointees and paring down to a 51 vote majority rule to pass the House bills that are stuck in the do-nothing Senate!  They have Trump’s regulation and tax reform economy to fill their sails into a victorious Mid-Term!  By November, Trump’s tariff/renegotiated trade agreements will add even more jobs to the economy and entice even more investment in the US.  

If the House and the Senate Republicans do stick by Trump’s guns, they will benefit from a higher percentage of the Black, legal Hispanic, and women’s vote.  Why do I say this?  In 2016, Trump already had chipped away at these normally strong Democrat strongholds.  The following voting blocks are where Trump can help the Republicans who are up for re-election.

  • LGBTTrump took 14% of their vote in 2016.  Since then, with the mass shootings, many in the LGBT community have become gun owners and many have joined the NRA.  Safety is a key issue for this group along with jobs and equal opportunity protections.  Trump is proving to more of this community that he does not represent a threat to their way of life but has proven that he can be good for them by providing economic, political and personal security.
  • Blacks: Trump took 8% of the Black vote in 2016.  Since then, his economic policies have driven Black unemployment down to historic lows.  His outreach through HUD and HHS are improving inner city and rural Black community’s quality of life.  He is restoring life to failed cities like Detroit by bringing back entire industries.  Once he gets Congress to act on a comprehensive Education program via Betsy DeVos, Blacks will finally realize their dream for their children through school choice.  Republicans can campaign on these Black community achievements and garner more of this demographics vote than they could imagine.  In 2020. Trump could get close to 20% of the Black vote for his 2nd term re-election!
  • Legal Hispanics:   Trump took almost 30% of the Hispanic vote in 2016.  Trump’s 4 pillar immigration/DACA proposal and his pushing for a DACA solution has won over many of the legal Hispanic voters.   Trump’s economic message and actions have soared employment levels for Hispanics and his SBA programs have swelled the ranks of new Hispanic small businesses.  Trump’s Christian message also resonates with many in the Hispanic community. Republicans need to campaign on Trump’s successes for the Hispanic community and stay behind Trump until the mid-term elections.  If the Republicans in Congress appear to be fighting Trump on immigration reform and border security or his economic programs, they could risk not getting a high percentage of the Hispanic vote.  I predict that in 2020 Trump will 40-45% of the Hispanic vote.
  • Women:   Trump took 41% of the total female vote, 47% of the married women, and 33% of the non-married women in 2016.  Democrats bet their 2018 chances on the #MeToo movement that is turning out to be a nightmare for themselves and their Hollywood and main stream media lackeys!  They will keep dredging up stories about Trump but the economy will trump #MeToo as it applies to Trump in 2020.  Economic and physical security mean a great deal to women voters.  If Trump can fend off North Korea, Iran, Syria and Russia and stalemate any threat from them, this will add to his side of the ledger.  The Democrats have no real economic, physical security or foreign policy message at all.  Obama/Clinton foreign policy is proving to be even more feckless every day.  Republican campaigners need to stay on the Trump message of strength, economic security, physical safety, and foreign policy security and they will garner a majority of the female vote.  Wouldn’t wait for Jennifer Lawrence nor Ashley Judd but I would question myself if they voted for me!

The Democrats have not learned that you cannot create pockets of identity voters and expect them to vote against their own interests, economic, safety, and quality of life.  You can’t prop non-citizens against citizens and expect your pockets of identity voters to stick with you!  Carvell reminded us that it is the Economy Stupid.  He could have said It Is My Self Interest Stupid!

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

Hat Tips

http://dailycaller.com/2018/03/09/democrats-abolish-ice/

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/09/16/crime-wave-elusive-data-shows-frightening-toll-illegal-immigrant-criminals.html

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016

Paul Ryan Wrong to Prioritize “Entitlements” in 2018!

Ryan Is Ignorant of Sound Fiscal Concepts & A Phased Limited Approach Methodology!

Apparently Ryan and McConnell are bickering over Ryan’s desire to push for “Entitlement” reform in 2018, a mid-term election year!  There are a couple of issues with this picture.  One, Donald J. Trump is the President of the United States, and he, not Ryan, will set the priorities!  Two, Ryan thinks that Social Security and Medicare are part of his definition of “entitlements” that also include Medicaid, Welfare, Food Stamps etc..  Third, to take on “entitlements” during a mid-term election year shows Ryan’s tone deafness when it comes to hanging onto the third rail of politics (entitlements) while trying to hold onto majorities in the House and Senate!  But, none of these three issues are not really the major issue!

The Major Issue is that President Trump has just passed, with some help from Ryan and McConnell, the largest tax cuts and tax reforms in decades.  The economy needs time to react to these fiscal policy changes so we can determine its impact on the economy and on the so-called ‘ENTITLEMENTS’.  

Change Management Principle:  Engineers know the basic principle of Change Management is that you implement one change at a time and assess its impact before moving onto the next change.  If not, it may be impossible to know which change is really responsible for the desired or undesired results and what the impact of multiple changes are on each other!  The tax policy changes and cuts will begin to be melded into the US economy during 2018 and beyond.  Trying to change a major cost driver in our economy while a major revenue driver is being rolled out is idiotic and fiscally unsound!

Tax Cuts and Tax Reform Will Change the Dynamics and Fiscal Make-up of “Entitlements”:  Tax cuts will allow the GDP to swell to 4%+ adding at least $5 Trillion to our annual GDP over the Obama years.  Tax cuts will increase the demand for goods and services from private sectors corporations and businesses by putting more money in the pockets of 80% of our taxpayers.  Tax cuts for corporations and small business will incentivize them to add facilities, increase production to meet the new demand, and ADD MORE EMPLOYEES.  The more people that are employed, the lower the demand for Entitlements such as welfare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, etc…  

Since the Tax Cuts and Tax Reform will dramatically change “entitlements”, Ryan will be trying to hit a moving target in terms of the demand for services by the unemployed and under-employed!  As more people leave welfare, more people will no longer need Medicaid.  As more people are gainfully employed, the less demand there will be for Food Stamps.  The Obama era swelled the Food Stamp participation to 47.6 million people and the Trump economic recovery has dropped the usage to 42.6 million people.  President Trump will tweak these entitlements over the next two years as the economy and employment continue to improve.

Social Security and Medicare:  Until the Trump Tax Cuts and Tax Reform impact matures in 2019, it is idiotic to propose any changes to these programs.  The higher the level of employment, the more people will be paying into both Social Security and Medicare.  The Obama normal of a low labor force participation rate, reduced the number of people paying into Social Security and Medicare.  

Also, since disability is a part of the Social Security funds, more able bodies people will be dropping disability!  During the Obama 8 year depression, people who no longer qualified for unemployment benefits applied for and were granted disability payments.  The Trump economy will reverse this trend.

Tweak-Eliminate Public Sector Retirement Systems:  The one tweak President Trump and Ryan can propose is to eliminate the carve out for public sector employees to be exempted from Social Security and Medicare.  It is typical that government treats itself better than it does its citizen tax payers!  Allowing government employees to contribute to a separate Public Employee Retirement System (PERS) is discriminatory and weakens the Social Security system.

Earth to Ryan:

  1. You are not the President, you are two levels below the President.
  2. President Trump is President, you are not!
  3. President Trump received the mandate in the last National Presidential Election, you did not.
  4. Let the Tax Cuts and Tax Reform kick in and jump start this economy.
  5. Follow Trump’s lead, it is a better view than the one you would see from your home in Wisconsin if you lose the 2018 mid-terms.  The President created an $11 Billion dollar empire, you won an election in a small district in Wisconsin and really have never had a real job.

Go to Camp David with the President and Mitch and listen to the President.  Remember this phrase;

YES MR. PRESIDENT!

 

If YOU are talking, YOU are not learning!

See the source image

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

Hat Tips:

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/ryan-mcconnell-entitlement-reform/2017/12/27/id/833921/

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/07/20/food-stamp-use-falls-lowest-level-seven-years/

Trump to GOP, Get in Line or Get Out of the Way! Populism V Swamp

Trump

Everyone is trying to understand why Trump jumped into the debt ceiling/government funding negotiation and cut the deal with Schumer and Pelosi over McConnell and Ryan.  It is simple.  On Tuesday, The House GOP leader, Kevin McCarthy stated that the RINOs would NOT push to fund Trump’s Border Wall until December.  This is after delay after delay by the RINO Leadership, Ryan and McConnell, to keep pushing off approval of Trump’s border security bill.  Trump viewed this additional snub as a personal attack, again.

So yesterday, after Ryan and McConnell publicly stated that they would not agree to a debt ceiling hike unless it was for 18 months, use a continuing resolution to fund the government, and not tie anything to the bill, like Harvey Relief, Trump stopped the back and forth bickering between Pelosi-Schumer and McConnell-Ryan by saying that the debt ceiling and government funding would go through December 15th and fully fund his request for Hurricane Harvey relief!  Period!  His priority was Harvey Funding and the other issues were mere political noise to him! 

He later added an additional insult to the GOP leadership by complimenting Schumer and Pelosi by name and merely mentioning that GOP leadership was also at the meeting and agreed to the deal. On Air Force One in route to North Dakota to give his Tax Plan a plug, Trump Said:

“We had a very good meeting with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, we agreed to a three-month extension on debt ceiling, which they consider to be sacred – very important – always we’ll agree on debt ceiling automatically because of the importance of it.”  He followed up by saying the GOP Congressional Leadership were also in the meeting!  

Step in Trump’s shoes for a moment; he has a major cleanup in Houston to deal with; A new hurricane about to hit Florida; A nut job in North Korea threatening nuclear war; a sabre rattling whack job in Iran threatening retaliation if Trump kills the US-Iran sell-out; A tenuous negotiation with China over trade and NOKO policy; He is still managing the annihilation of ISIS around the world; deploying his new Afghanistan policy; a media who hates him; and the sun is going down on his Tax Plan, Obamacare, and his appointees for 2017.  So, to sit there for an hour listening to Ryan, McConnell, Pelosi and Schumer quibble like a bunch of spoiled brats over how and when and how much to increase the debt ceiling, (which is truly non-existent), and arguing for political advantages in terms of timing for how long the debt limit covers, and ignoring the real issue, Harvey Relief, Trump merely had enough.  

The Border Wall snub by Ryan and McConnell was just another log on the fire from Trump’s point of view.  Every time the media attacks something Trump says, even if the media is dead wrong as they usually are, Ryan and McConnell cannot get to a camera fast enough, usually having to wait for McCain’s bashing of Trump, to distance themselves from the President!  Trump is deeply frustrated with the lack of GOP support for his agenda and for him personally after he basically got all of those limp-wrist RINOs elected on his coattails.  The chickens are about to come home to roost.

Make no mistake, Trump knows that he will not get support from either the Democrats nor the media.  Many of the latter used to be personal friends of Donald and Melania Trump but since the election cycle, they have mercilessly attacked both of them and their family.  They oppose him and his agenda.  “Resist” is alive and well and the Democrats are too stupid to see the handwriting on the wall. 

But, Trump also knows that both Ryan and McConnell’s leadership is shaky at best.  He has tried to everything he can to support them and let them carry the ball for his agenda.  The problem is that they hate his agenda as his agenda offends their donor class!  These two have run away from Trump’s agenda and have at the same time alienated their conservative caucuses.  Mark Meadows could challenge Ryan’s leadership in the house but it is unclear who would challenge McConnell in the Senate.  There are a lot of “professed” conservatives in the Senate but not too many like Mark Meadows in the House who walk like a duck and quack like a duck.

Trump the Populist-First!

BUT, Trump is not a hard-core conservative nor a hard-core liberal.  Trump is a Populist!  He will back measures that are in the NATIONAL INTEREST of the nation and its citizens and not merely to adhere to someone’s view of conservatism or liberalism.  His America First Trade position is a good example as is immigration.  So the conservative caucus in the House and Senate need to understand he will not bend to mere ideology.  There has to be a pragmatic benefit to America if he is to embrace it.  He sees ideology as a possible barrier to “Make America Great Again”!  (Trump’s Trade Doctrine is an example)  He definitely sees ideology as a barrier to getting things done in the name of some lofty doctrine.  Case in point, the 60 vote filibuster rule in the Senate that is used by Senators to avoid making hard votes and being held accountable.

Trump has some real mine fields to navigate going forward. 

  • DACA will test his base as he viewed killing DACA and making Congress deal with this to be a Constitutional issue, more than an immigration issue.  (Separate Article to Follow)  the GOP and the Dems are sure to try to force Trump to sign amnesty for DACA beneficiaries before March 15th.  They may even try to tie it to a RINO/McCain/Rubio Gang of Eight amnesty bill.
  • Passing Tax Relief and Tax Reform will be a bigger battle within the GOP than Obamacare R&R.  Simply, corporate interests (Ryan and McConnell’s constituency) want lower rates but they want to keep all of the carve outs and tax breaks.  Dems will not support breaks for evil corporations and the “rich” and will push for more “tax rebates” for those who don’t pay taxes.  In the end, the middle-class could end up with the shaft rather than a tax break.
  • Obamacare Repeal & Replace will probably not happen before the 2018 Mid-Terms.  Congress will try to force Trump to subsidize the big insurance companies to keep Obamacare afloat longer.  The bottom line is that the RINO and DEM donor class wants to have national healthcare.  If a corporation is no longer responsible for providing healthcare for its employees and their families, just think how much the corporation  can add to their bottom line without doing absolutely anything!

Final Thought!

One other unmentioned comment Trump made yesterday following the meeting was that he expects Congress to take up and pass a real budget.  This is probably the most important statement he made yesterday and no one is talking about it!  Trump hates the now normal use of Continuing Resolutions to fund the government rather than formerly adopting a real budget.  As a business man, this is totally unacceptable.  How can you run a $4 trillion economy without a budget?  How can you expect to balance a budget without a budget.  The conservative caucus in the House and Senate need to wake up and insist on Congress passing Trump’s budget!

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

Hat Tips:

http://nypost.com/2017/09/06/white-house-and-congress-agree-to-raise-debt-ceiling/

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/trump-sides-with-democrats-on-debt-ceiling-throwing-gop-plans-into-chaos-20170906.html

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/06/trump-mnuchin-debt-ceiling-239208

http://dailycaller.com/2017/09/06/trump-agrees-to-fund-the-govt-raise-the-debt-ceiling/

https://hotair.com/archives/2017/09/05/kevin-mccarthy-well-fight-funding-border-wall-december-not-now/

 

Trump’s “Contract with the American Voter” What It Means to You!

We The People-Part II

Image result for we the people

Below are the 28 Contractual Items that Trump laid out today (October 22, 2016) at Gettysburg.  (The were copied from Breitbart’s coverage of todays event and can be found at the link shown in Hat Tips below.) 

This is the first time a real commitment has been put down in contractual form since Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with American” in 1994.  Trump’s list is considerably longer than that of Gingrich but then again the Washington Global Elitist, Democrat and Republican, have created many more problems since 1994!

Below each item are my comments regarding each point.  Trump’s items will require several paths to be followed depending on the item.  Either an Amendment to the US Constitution, Congressional Approval, or Execution Action will be required.  The Constitutional Amendments may take some time but the only way to ensure that key issues cannot be tampered with by future Presidents and Congresses.  Many of Trump’s items will make Congress squirm more than just a little.  The key thing to remember that all of his remedies are allowed within the Constitution from a strict constructionist sense.  That makes a Republican RINO in Congress squirm even more!!!

One other takeaway from these 28 contract item is the genius of Trump picking Mike Pence as a running mate.  Trump needs a solid ally working with Congress, on both sides of the aisle, to get these items through Congress.  Some will require a Herculean effort on the part of Pence and the Congressional leadership but a Trump election is a signal to Congress that the People are Now Back In Charge!  Plus, Trump, is a great spokesperson for his agenda and will not hesitate to take to the airwaves to help Pence heel Congress!  Should be fun to watch!

“Contract with the American Voter”

  1. Propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress

    1. Constitutional Amendment: If Congress will not initiate, Trump can call on the Governors and their legislature to initiate the process of establishing term limits similar to the 1947, 22nd Amendment that limited the Presidency to two four-year terms.  Constitutional Amendments are not easy to process and pass but they can be done.  The last amendment was passed in 1992.  In the past, Trump has talked about limiting Senators to two terms, 12 years total, and members of Congress will be to 6, 2 year terms for a total of 12 years.  The details will be negotiated but I would hope that the plan for term limits put forth by Mark R. Levin would serve as the model.  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  2. Institute a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health)

    1. Executive Order or Congressional Action:  Trump could issue an Executive Order to implement the hiring freeze and limits.  This has been done in the past by various Presidents regardless of what you will hear in the MSM.  If Ryan and McConnell understand the mood of the country, they should volunteer to push through legislation.  Don’t hold your breath!

  3. Require for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated.

    1. Executive Order or Congressional Action:  Trump will most like use an executive order to enforce this limit but once again, if Congress has any sense of the American voter, they should act in concert with Trump. 

  4. Institute a five year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service

    1. Executive Order AND Congressional Action:  Trump can require all White House staff and appointees to agree to not becoming lobbyist after they leave government service.  Congress will have to enact similar legislation to limit their own members and staff.  If Congress refuses to act, all members of the House and those members of the Senate that are up for re-election in 2018 would be held accountable.  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  5. Create a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government.

    1. Executive Order:  Trump can require all White House staff and appointees to agree to not becoming lobbying on behalf of a foreign government after they leave government service.  This is slightly different from being an actual lobbyist so it is a necessary distinction.   

  6. Institute a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.

    1. Congressional Action:  Trump will engage Congress to pass a law prohibiting foreign lobbyist raising money for US elections.  This would include money funneled through unions, PACS, or private foundations, like the Clinton Foundation.  There is no reason to allow foreign agents to help fund campaigns or efforts in this country.  We give up our very sovereignty when we do.  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  7. Announce intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205.

    1. Executive Order:  Trump can renegotiate NAFTA on his own and withdraw if necessary under Article 2205 which simply reads, “A Party may withdraw from this Agreement six months after it provides written notice of withdrawal to the other Parties. If a Party withdraws, the Agreement shall remain in force for the remaining Parties.”  Finally a government document you can read!  Trump will not need Congress to approve or disapprove.  There will have to be serious tariff discussions and other details between the US, Mexico and Canada if this comes to fruition!

  8. Announce withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

    1. Executive Order:  TPP has not be submitted to the Senate for ratification by Obama and probably would not be taken up if it were at this point.  Trump would just have to announce his intention that the US will not participate in further discussions to approve this agreement.  Presumably Trump would engage in negotiations with the individual nations regarding trade and avoid ceding authority over the US by an international arbitration agency.

  9. Direct Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator.

    1. Executive Order:  This will trigger a series of discussions within the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding China’s actions.  Other nations, possibly including the US, may get pulled into scrutiny.  But, it will put the world on notice that this practice of de facto tariffs on competitive goods will not be tolerated by the US.

  10. Direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately.

    1. Executive Order:  Similar to labeling China a currency manipulator, discovering and adjudicating trade abuses will require intense scrutiny and a great deal of negotiation and possible legal action.  Between the two items, Trump will be sending a message that business as usual is over with the US.  Reaction will certainly be interesting!

  11. Lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars’ worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.

    1. Executive Action and Possible Congressional Action:  This will probably be the biggest boost to the US economy long-term of any of Trump’s proposals.  I am hedging my bets in how this can be accomplished as there may be laws on the books regulating these activities.  If what Trump attempts to do has not been limited by Congress in the past, then he can probably push forward on his own as Obama did in strangling our energy industries.  The offshoot of lifting these limits will yield lower energy prices, really put OPEC in a bad position in trying to regulate oil prices, create a lot of jobs directly and in support of these industries.  Since oil prices are relatively low, less costly exploration will go forward prior to an all out assault by the energy industry.  The coal states will see an immediate boost in employment and revenues.  I would like to see Trump add a “rebate” for taxpayers as our energy windfalls create additional revenues.  He should also earmark a percentage of gains to reducing the national debt!

  12. Lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward.

    1. Executive Order:  Part of #11 above.  This will help assure our Northern Partner, Canada, that the US values their energy partnership and start to build a North American Energy partnership with Mexico being included.  More jobs, less pollution, and more revenue!

  13. Cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure.

    1. Executive Order:  Trump should sick Ambassador John Bolton on this one plus a review of all funding of the UN by the US.  The UN has grabbed onto the climate change fiasco in order to redistribute money to themselves and whoever they want to prop up.  I wish I could believe that global warming was real and that the waters around Manhattan would rise and swallow up the UN building!

  14. Cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama.

    1. Executive Order:  Trump may have carpel tunnel syndrome by the time he signs all of the Un-Executive Orders!  This will save billions of dollars as well as reduce the power of many federal agencies and bureaucracies.  He should go back to 1992 to make sure that Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II don’t have any “stinkers” in the pile!

  15. Begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States.

    1. Submission of a Supreme Court Nominee to the Senate:  This should be a quick action item for Trump.  It will be interesting how the Senate Republicans react!  The Democrats will fight to block any of the 20 but McConnell has to stand up and fight back.  If the Republican lose the Senate, then Trump will have to fight in the court of public opinion to get his appointments through the Senate’s barbaric process.

  16. Cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities.

    1. Executive Order and Maybe some Congressional Action:  Much of the funding through federal agencies to States, Cities and Counties can be cut off via executive order.  If there are any Congressional funding mechanisms on the books, Congress would have to vote for a rider allowing the President to cut off funds if he deemed the agency to be a “sanctuary” haven for illegal aliens.  As an Ex-California Mayor, I fought for this back in the 1970’s when this nonsense of sanctuary cities started.  Gov. Brown of California will fight tooth and nail on this one as he was a strong proponent of sanctuary cities in the 1970’s!  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  17. Begin removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won’t take them back.

    1. Executive Action:  The laws are already on the books for removing illegal aliens, especially those who have committed felonies in the US, and sending them back to their home country.  I doubt that foreign countries will refuse to take back their “citizens” when facing the loss of foreign aid, visas and trade.  Trump and the US is in a strong position on this item.

  18. Suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting.

    1. Executive Order:  Trump can use an executive order to suspend immigration and direct Homeland Security to create and enforce safe vetting procedures.  Suspension of immigration from specific areas have been done by many administrations in the past including Obama/Clinton when they suspended immigration from IRAQ!

  19. Work with Congress on a Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act; an economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief, and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35 to 15 percent, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas can now be brought back at a 10 percent rate.

    1. Congressional Action:  This will not be a quick fix for Trump.  It took Reagan quite a while to get his tax program somewhat through Congress.  Congress uses the tax code to pay off their donors so there will be more pigs in this blanket than with any other proposal.  The sooner this is enacted, that faster the economy can start to turn around and revenue start to flow.  In the end, if the Republican can keep even a marginal majority in the House and Senate, this can be attached to a budget bill and passed with a majority in both houses.  If Congress fails to act on Trump’s proposal, the 2018 elections will be bloody.  Trump will be campaigning for or against Congress depending on if they support his Tax Plan!  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  20. Work with Congress on an End The Offshoring Act Establishes tariffs to discourage companies from laying off their workers in order to relocate in other countries and ship their products back to the U.S. tax-free.

    1. Congressional Action:  One would think that this would be a no brainer for Congress but this is at the heart of Progressive Globalism.  This Act encourages our companies to produce goods in low wage countries and does not punish them for laying off American Workers.  This is part of Trump’s overall strategy of bring back American manufacturing and preventing it from leaving in the future.  You would think that our labor unions would be behind this and indeed the workers are.  But the union leadership in charge of money laundering campaign contributions for Democrats are not.  If Congress fails to act on Trump’s proposal, the 2018 elections will be bloody on this one as well.  Trump will be campaigning for or against Congress depending on if they support his repeal of this act!  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  21. Work with Congress on an American Energy & Infrastructure Act; Leverages public-private partnerships, and private investments through tax incentives, to spur $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over 10 years. It is revenue neutral.

    1. Congressional Action:  This plan would partner private and public funding of needed energy and infrastructure projects to allow us to build up our roads, airports, bridges etc.  This is not like Obama’s stimulus as it creates a “bond” type of funding for these projects rather than drag down on the US Treasury.  Once again, the Porkers in Congress love this kind of legislation so it will remain to be seen if Trump comes out with a pure form of his proposal.  Once again 2018 may be an impetus for Congress to act!  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  22. Work with Congress on a School Choice And Education Opportunity Act; redirects education dollars to gives parents the right to send their kid to the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school of their choice. Ends common core, brings education supervision to local communities. It expands vocational and technical education, and make 2 and 4-year college more affordable.

    1. Executive Order and Congressional Action:  Many of the required changes can be driven through the Department of Education via executive orders.  Congress will have to pass enabling legislation to redirect Common Core programs as well as for the proposed school choice provisions.  Many vocational programs exist and should reviewed for relevance.  Some of these may be retooled with additional Congressional approval required.  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  23. Work with Congress on a Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act; fully repeals Obamacare and replaces it with Health Savings Accounts, the ability to purchase health insurance across state lines, and lets states manage Medicaid funds. Reforms will also include cutting the red tape at the FDA: there are over 4,000 drugs awaiting approval, and we especially want to speed the approval of life-saving medications.

    1. Executive Order and Congressional Action:  Trump can use executive orders where authorized to tweak down Obamacare while Congress works on repealing and replacing Obamacare.  This will be an ugly Congressional fight and the Republican will not fight dirty with their own rules in order to accomplish the repeal.  Ryan and McConnell will be on the hot seat for this now as they can’t use the Presidency as their scapegoat.  They will know that they are not facing a veto now for acting!  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  24. Work with Congress on an Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act; allows Americans to deduct childcare and elder care from their taxes, incentivize employers to provide on-side childcare services, and creates tax-free Dependent Care Savings Accounts for both young and elderly dependents, with matching contributions for low-income families.

    1. Executive Order and Congressional Action:  Some of the funding to start some of the programs can be redirected via executive orders.  But some of the substantive changes will require Congressional action.  As many of these are tied to the tax code, some can be appended to the budget and other tax code changes.  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  25. Work with Congress on an End Illegal Immigration Act; fully-funds the construction of a wall on our southern border with the full understanding that the country Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall; establishes a 2-year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering the U.S. after a previous deportation, and a 5-year mandatory minimum for illegally re-entering for those with felony convictions, multiple misdemeanor convictions or two or more prior deportations; also reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for over-staying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first.

    1. Executive Order and Congressional Action:  Trump can re-prioritize current laws and funding to push through much of this via executive orders.  Congress may have to add appropriations and to modify federal sentencing standards and guidelines.  Most of the Visa provisions can be enacted by Trump via executive orders as well.  The balance will have to be worked out with Congress and Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  26. Work with Congress on a Restoring Community Safety Act; reduces surging crime, drugs and violence by creating a Task Force On Violent Crime and increasing funding for programs that train and assist local police; increases resources for federal law enforcement agencies and federal prosecutors to dismantle criminal gangs and put violent offenders behind bars.

    1. Executive Orders and Congressional Action:  Much of the needed funding can be pushed through the Department of Justice once that SWAMP is drained.  Community block grants and other funding mechanism could be enacted via Congress to insure quick improvement can be made at the LOCAL level.  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  27. Work with Congress on a Restoring National Security Act; rebuilds our military by eliminating the defense sequester and expanding military investment; provides Veterans with the ability to receive public VA treatment or attend the private doctor of their choice; protects our vital infrastructure from cyber-attack; establishes new screening procedures for immigration to ensure those who are admitted to our country support our people and our values

    1. Executive Order and Congressional Action:  This is a big undertaking and will probably be done in steps with some via executive orders and some with legislation.  Congress will have to work with Trump on the budget to restore military funding.  A lot of the veteran aid can be done through executive orders using existing legislation and some legislative tweaking.  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

  28. Work with Congress on a Clean up Corruption in Washington Act;  enacts new ethics reforms to Drain the Swamp and reduce the corrupting influence of special interests on our politics.

    1. Executive Order and Congressional Action:  The Washing DC swamp is pretty big and deep so draining the swamp will require multiple approaches.  Trump can clean up the bureaucracy within Federal agencies pretty much through executive orders.  The swampy Congress will have to clean up their own swamp under the loving guidance of Trump and the pesky voters!  This will be fun to watch as Trump will undoubtedly appoint a “Super-Swamp-Monitor” to help drain the swamps!  2018 Elections will also be on Trump’s side.  Pence will be instrumental in shepherding the legislative needs.

Well, Trump laid out his contract to you, from him.  It is up to you to go out and vote for yourself by voting for Trump/Pence on November 8th!

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

Background Info:

Amendments to the US Constitution-Article V:  “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as Part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress;…”

 

Hat Tips

28 Points taken from:  http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/22/donald-trump-contract-american-voter-100-days-5338007/

The Clinton’s and the Dems, The Real Ugly Face Of Racism

41% of Hispanic & 24% of Black Adults Are Functionally Illiterate In the U.S.

 

He Would get us Coffee47% of the Citizens of Detroit and Chicago are Illiterate!

Trump and Minority Outreach

Trump, once again, is the leading voice in calling attention to a problem plaguing our once great nation.  The problem is the impact of the Democrat Party’s policies in our inner cities that condemn its minority, mainly African-American, citizens to poverty, crime infested neighborhoods, and illiteracy. 

Democrat Dominance:  The Democrat Party has ruled in many of our major cities for over the past 50-100 years leaving third world living conditions in its wake.  All the while blaming “Whites” and specifically White Republicans for the woes created by the Leftist Democrat Party agenda. 

The Left has been so successful in their indoctrination of the African-American communities that as a block Blacks voted 95% and 93% respectively for Barak Obama against John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.  McCain and Romney and even Bush did little or nothing to sway the Black voting block to vote for them. 

Democrat Economic Slavery:  The inner cities with high crime rates and high unemployment in the Black Communities, all suffer from long-term Democrat controlled City governments.  Their pro teacher union sub-par education programs have created a group of individuals without hope for a future, an acceptance of abject poverty and high crime rates as the status quo.  They line up for the same Democrat politicians, backed by race baiters like Jackson, Sharpton, Rev. Wright, and others, and vote against bettering their own futures. 

Merging of Shared Interests:  The inner city policies that drive up poverty, illiteracy and high crime rates, are aided and abetted by Federal policy as well.  This is not only the fault of the Democrat Party, but the Republican Party shares almost an equal share of the blame.  The Democrat Party is actively pursing Leftist policies that expand government dependency and drive unemployment, poverty, high crime rates, and a degradation of education while the Republican Party stands idly by allowing the Leftist to have their way.  In the end, both parties have morphed into monolithic globalist open border elitist protagonists.  The Republicans are more focused on pimping to their globalist big business interests while allowing the Democrats to soothe the minorities into believe that their present plight is the fault of others and there is not way out!  Both parties are not really concerned who is in the majority as the end result is the same!  More government, more poverty, higher crime and higher illiteracy!

Status Quo Acceptance by High and Middle Income Blacks:  The saddest part of this scenario is the acceptance of this status quo by upper and middle-income Blacks and Hispanics who tend to vote with their lower-income counterparts!  In 2014, 1.6% of Blacks had an income over $200,000; 11% from $100K to $200K; 38% from $35K to $100K;  and 49% below $35K (primarily residents in our inner cities).  The upper income Blacks ($100K+) total 12.6% of the Black population.  If you assume that half of the population earning between $100K and $35K are middle-income, the total upper and middle-income Blacks would be 31.6% of the total Black population.  This is far higher than the 5% or so of Blacks who did not vote for a non Democrat in the past two elections.  If the upper/middle-income Blacks felt that the Republicans offered a better outcome for Blacks as a whole, they would probably switch!

Obama Anomaly?:  Many Republicans hide behind Obama as being the first Black President as an excuse for overwhelming support of the Black community for the Democrat ticket.  But, a look at the voting and registration breakout of the Black voting block belies this assumption to a great extent.  In the 2000 and 2004 election Bush won both contests.  In 2000 and 2004 Bush only received 8% and 11% of the Black vote.  Prior to Bush, going back to 1964, the highest percentage of the Black Vote, 15%, came in 1968 for Nixon and 1976 for Ford.  So, the fact that the first Black president garnered 95% of the vote, compared to a 44 year low of 85% of the Black vote for a Democrat, indicates that there is another explanation as to why Republicans receive such a low percentage of the Black Vote. 

Civil Rights Act of 1964:  In 1960, Democrat John Kennedy received only 68% of the Black vote and Republican Richard Nixon received 32% of the Black vote.  In the 1956 election, Republicans received 39% of the Black Vote; the highest percentage of Black votes received by a Republican in over 75 years!  So what happened in 1964 to allow Democrat Lyndon Johnson to receive 94% of the Black Vote, equal to what was received by Barak Obama?  Of course it was the Civil Rights Act of 1964.  The irony is that although this legislation was initiated by Democrat John Kennedy, it was only due to the voting by Republicans in the House and Senate that allowed this historic bill to pass!  Over 80% of the Republicans voted for passage in the House while only 63% of the Democrats voted for the House bill.  In the Senate, 80% of the Republicans voted for passage while only 69% of the Democrats voted for passage (66% for Cloture).

Win the Vote, Lose the Hearts:  Typical of Republicans, they won the vote for the 1964 Civil Rights Act but received very little credit for doing so in the Black Community!  But, this is their legacy in race relations since the assignation of Lincoln!  The Right has never done a good job promoting their fight for equal rights for all, including the Blacks, and actually received the blame for the Ku Klux Klan and Jim Crow Laws that were actually supported by the Democrat Party!  The Republicans have virtually conceded control of the African-American and Hispanic vote to the Democrats!

Enter Trump!

Image result for trump and the black vote

Just as Trump has done with immigration, jobs, trade, crime, terrorism etc., Trump is now taking up the cause of our inner cities and the plight of the minorities trapped in their morass of corruption, crime, violence, poverty and illiteracy.  No other Republican candidate in memory has ever put so many “chips” on the table for this cause! 

Trump understands that he may or not be successful, from an election perspective, in attracting enough of the Black and Hispanic votes with his outreach to justify the time and effort his campaign is expending.  But, it is yet another “injustice” he has identified that deserves not only his voice, but the attention of the American people, and certainly our elected officials in Washington DC, in State government, and certainly in our inner city government. 

Trump not only highlighted the plight of our inner cities, but will sit down in Detroit and other cities to discuss the plight of our fellow citizens trapped in these hell-holes with those very citizens.  He won’t pander like Clinton with her bottle of “hot sauce” or all of a sudden develop an African-American inflection in his voice, whatever that is, to talk down to those he is sharing this time.  He will listen to their voices and let them know that he plans to clean up their crime laden streets, promote minority owned local businesses, bring back jobs, offer school choice, and reverse policies that have promoted single parent homes and high out of wedlock birth rates. 

Trump will ruffle a lot of feathers with this inner city campaign, but those feathers deserve to be ruffled.  Our inner cities are a disgrace to who we are as a people, as Christians, and as human beings.  Democrats will cry that Trump really does not care and Republicans will cower down in a corner and hope he just goes away!  Globalist/Anarchists will be the most disappointed if Trump succeeds as they need to disrupt this nation to the highest degree possible so they and their oligarchy can reap the benefits of chaos.  If Trump does not win this battle, we are in for a racial divide that we have not experienced in our history.

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

Hat Tips

http://www.statisticbrain.com/number-of-american-adults-who-cant-read/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/06/illiteracy-rate_n_3880355.html

http://blackdemographics.com/households/african-american-income/

http://unionwatch.org/karen-lewis-and-chicagos-illiteracy-problem/

http://theweek.com/articles/484910/detroits-shocking-47-percent-illiteracy-rate