Illegal Immigration Is the “Salvation” for Democrats in 2018/2020, Really!
There is no doubt that the Democrat Party has locked itself in as an “Identity Party” by polarizing various target groups such as women, LGBT, Blacks, non-Christians, and Hispanics, and anyone else they can turn into victims. In doing so, the only way to herd their flock into lockstep is to make sure that the economy is mediocre or bad so many of their flock are seemingly disenfranchised, that their flock groups feel threatened by the evil conservatives who are trying to return them to slavery, economic or social bondage. The toughest task the Democrat herders face is to insure that one or more of their groups are not at odds with other group(s).
During the Obama years of economic stagnation and the demise of opportunity and economic and social advancement, the Democrat groups pretty much towed the Democrat progressive line and kept their hands out for government subsidies to seemingly make up for their lack of opportunity caused by anyone else but themselves and their wonderful Democrat/Progressive masters.
But! Donald Trump stormed onto the scene with a message of economic hope, true socio-economic opportunity, and a clear emphasis on the middle class regardless of sex, sexual orientation, religion, or race. He even challenged Black voters, “What the Hell do you have to lose?” Trump cracked the once solid Democrat identity politics herd by introducing the chance for a better life regardless of which herd group you had been corralled into by the Democrats. Further, Trump’s message of safety, strength, and pride lifted many out of despair that had heretofore not participated in the political process of voting. Even the once solid Democrat stronghold of Union membership shifted from the Democrat herd to Trump with Trump garnering 42% of the union vote!
But, where does illegal immigration fit into this discussion and specifically to the 2018 mid-terms and the 2020 Presidential race?
The Coastal Democrat/Progressives have tripled down on illegal immigration and illegal immigrants living in the US in the past 18 months. Sanctuary States and Cities have become the norm for the left and right coasts to the exclusion and detriment of the legal residents of those states. Those same states have tripled down on socialist, high taxation, and welfare state, policies that have created a degree of homelessness never seen before and the death of their middle class that cannot survive the high taxation, low employment opportunity, and unrealistic housing costs. They are substituting their once strong citizen middle class with illegal aliens.
California is leading the legal battles against the Trump Administration and are outright defying Federal Laws on immigration and immigration enforcement. The California Governor and his administration have passed laws in direct conflict with US Immigration law and the US Constitution. Recently, the Mayor of Oakland, a prior member of the Governor’s staff, warned illegal immigrants that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) would be arresting illegal immigrants who had committed crimes and were subject to deportation. This warning allowed over 800 ICE targeted illegal criminal aliens to avoid capture and deportation and to remain in the Bay Area to prey on local, legal and illegal members of the community.
So, by promoting Sanctuary States, Cities, and Counties, the Democrat Party has decided to place the fate of illegal aliens, including criminal illegal aliens, at the forefront of their party to the exclusion of their prior target groups such as women, LGBT, Blacks, non-Christians, legal Hispanics and victims in general. 47% of likely voters in these states oppose their State’s sanctuary designation! The safety of all women, LGBT, Blacks, non-Christians, and legal Hispanics are put at risk by these policies. The coastal State’s spending on supporting illegals is robbing their citizens of funds, while being the highest taxes States in the US, to improve their communities while creating a homelessness problem in once beautiful cities is a blight unlike the ghettos in third world countries.
Impact On Other Democrat Party Identity Groups
Prioritizing and promoting an influx of illegal immigration into a job market drives down wages for legal residents, especially for Blacks and Hispanics. This policy also increases the burden on local schools and drives down the quality of education and the safety for legal students. Welfare services are likewise stretched and draw down on the State and local governments resources. Coddling illegal criminal aliens and preventing them from being deported puts all of the State’s residents at risk and the Democrat target identity groups are not immune from these risks, in fact, the poorer Black and Hispanic families are often the target of these criminals.
Just to be clear on how great a risk criminal illegal aliens are, consider the following. Illegal aliens, criminal and non-criminal, make up only 3.7% of the total US population. But, they have been charged with and/or convicted of 13.6% of the total crimes committed in the entire US; responsible for 12% of the murders, 20% of kidnappings, 16% of all drug dealing, and thousands who have been convicted of sex crimes and not yet deported.
So, how are the Democrats going to use Illegal immigration as their flagship issue in 2018/2020 when this element of our population:
- Drives down wages for Democrat leaning Blacks.
- Drives down wages for Democrat leaning legal Hispanics.
- Robs this nation and their constituents of a net $115 Billion dollars per year in government services provided to support the illegal alien community.
- Detracts from equality issues for women, Blacks, Hispanics, the LGBT community, Muslims and other Democrat victims.
- Robs inner cities of valuable funding that is siphoned off to support illegal aliens rather than being allocated to community development and safety.
- Diverts law enforcement resources an decreases the safety of its female, Blacks, Hispanics, the LGBT community, and Muslims.
I posit that the Democrat strategy to promote the causes for illegal aliens is a big loser for the Democrat/Progressive chances in 2018/2020!
Republicans in 2018 can only defeat themselves which is not out of the realm of possibility. If they would adhere to Trump and his agenda, they could pick up 8 more Senate seats and hold the House. The Republican majority in the Senate needs to start acting like a party in power by confirming all of Trump’s appointees and paring down to a 51 vote majority rule to pass the House bills that are stuck in the do-nothing Senate! They have Trump’s regulation and tax reform economy to fill their sails into a victorious Mid-Term! By November, Trump’s tariff/renegotiated trade agreements will add even more jobs to the economy and entice even more investment in the US.
If the House and the Senate Republicans do stick by Trump’s guns, they will benefit from a higher percentage of the Black, legal Hispanic, and women’s vote. Why do I say this? In 2016, Trump already had chipped away at these normally strong Democrat strongholds. The following voting blocks are where Trump can help the Republicans who are up for re-election.
- LGBT: Trump took 14% of their vote in 2016. Since then, with the mass shootings, many in the LGBT community have become gun owners and many have joined the NRA. Safety is a key issue for this group along with jobs and equal opportunity protections. Trump is proving to more of this community that he does not represent a threat to their way of life but has proven that he can be good for them by providing economic, political and personal security.
- Blacks: Trump took 8% of the Black vote in 2016. Since then, his economic policies have driven Black unemployment down to historic lows. His outreach through HUD and HHS are improving inner city and rural Black community’s quality of life. He is restoring life to failed cities like Detroit by bringing back entire industries. Once he gets Congress to act on a comprehensive Education program via Betsy DeVos, Blacks will finally realize their dream for their children through school choice. Republicans can campaign on these Black community achievements and garner more of this demographics vote than they could imagine. In 2020. Trump could get close to 20% of the Black vote for his 2nd term re-election!
- Legal Hispanics: Trump took almost 30% of the Hispanic vote in 2016. Trump’s 4 pillar immigration/DACA proposal and his pushing for a DACA solution has won over many of the legal Hispanic voters. Trump’s economic message and actions have soared employment levels for Hispanics and his SBA programs have swelled the ranks of new Hispanic small businesses. Trump’s Christian message also resonates with many in the Hispanic community. Republicans need to campaign on Trump’s successes for the Hispanic community and stay behind Trump until the mid-term elections. If the Republicans in Congress appear to be fighting Trump on immigration reform and border security or his economic programs, they could risk not getting a high percentage of the Hispanic vote. I predict that in 2020 Trump will 40-45% of the Hispanic vote.
- Women: Trump took 41% of the total female vote, 47% of the married women, and 33% of the non-married women in 2016. Democrats bet their 2018 chances on the #MeToo movement that is turning out to be a nightmare for themselves and their Hollywood and main stream media lackeys! They will keep dredging up stories about Trump but the economy will trump #MeToo as it applies to Trump in 2020. Economic and physical security mean a great deal to women voters. If Trump can fend off North Korea, Iran, Syria and Russia and stalemate any threat from them, this will add to his side of the ledger. The Democrats have no real economic, physical security or foreign policy message at all. Obama/Clinton foreign policy is proving to be even more feckless every day. Republican campaigners need to stay on the Trump message of strength, economic security, physical safety, and foreign policy security and they will garner a majority of the female vote. Wouldn’t wait for Jennifer Lawrence nor Ashley Judd but I would question myself if they voted for me!
The Democrats have not learned that you cannot create pockets of identity voters and expect them to vote against their own interests, economic, safety, and quality of life. You can’t prop non-citizens against citizens and expect your pockets of identity voters to stick with you! Carvell reminded us that it is the Economy Stupid. He could have said It Is My Self Interest Stupid!