Category Archives: America First

Trump Middle East & Terrorism Doctrine-Saudi Arabia at the Core

The Mainstream Media, Anti-Trumpers, and Washington Elites try to claim that President Trump does not have  a cohesive policy regarding the Middle East and the War on Terror.  The main reason is that they fear that the Trump Middle East War On Terror Doctrine will actually work!  It is the antithesis of the Neocons invasive policies of meddling directly in everyone else’s business and a rejection of the Left and Elites globalist policies to weaken the US.  In short, President Trump Gets It!

The Trump Middle East Doctrine actually includes West Asia, India, and Pakistan and is based on a strong Sunni alliance for the Muslim countries anchored to Saudi Arabia at its core.  The inclusion of India and Pakistan creates a Mutually Assured Destruction alliance of the areas two pre-eminent nuclear nations (excluding Israel) that is critical to insure that Pakistan does not form an unholy alliance with other neighboring nations.  This alliance sets up Iran as the primary military foe and Iranian sponsorship of terror as a key target of the War on Terror.  Under the covers, Israel is also included in the Alliance via its mostly covert interaction with Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Image result for trump summit in saudi arabia

Trump Middle East / War on Terror Doctrine

  1. Combat Radical Islam By Enlisting Sunni Muslim Nations:
    1. Create an Anti-Terror Sunni Muslim Coalition:  Earlier this year, President Trump met with over 50 Muslim nations to enlist their support in combatting Radical Islam.  All 50 countries agreed to cut off funding support for Radical Islamists and to create reforms in their countries to curb the spread of radical ideologies. 
    2. Setup Saudi Arabia as the Cornerstone to the Sunni Muslim Anti-Terror Coalition:  It is important to note that the meeting of the 50+ Muslim Arab nations was hosted by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah with his son and heir apparent, Mohammed bin Salman, or “MBS” at his side.  President Trump has invested his trust in MBS to not only take his country into the twentieth century (not a typo), but to lead the Sunni Arab nations to checkmate Iran, Russia and Syria in the region.  MBS knows that in order to temper, then eliminate the Saudi Wahhabi radicals, he must isolate their internal supporters.  Hence, the current round of arrests and the freezing of their assets.  In the past, many in the royal family funded terrorism around the world and supported the Wahhabi radical Islamists.  The plan is to reform Saudi Arabia internally so they can then take the lead to reform Islam in the Sunni world and drive out radical Islamists.  This removes the past duplicity of Saudi Arabia claiming to support the US war on terror while funding terrorists!  MBS views radical Islamists as the barrier to not only religious reform, but a barrier to bringing the Sunni nations into the modern world.  MBS knows that the oil dominance of the Middle East is seriously threatened by US energy production and that his economy needs to diversify or die.  He also needs to get his citizens working so they are occupied and do not engage in idle radicalization.  Some question if MBS is leading Saudi Arabia into an Iran like takeover by radical Islamists.  The main differences between 1979 Iran and 2017 Saudi Arabia is technology, US Support and military might.  MBS controls one of the most weaponized militaries in the Middle East with a surveillance capability to deeply monitor and respond to any insurrection.  MBS knows he also has President Trump watching his back.  President Carter threw the Shah of Iran under the bus that allowed the Ayatollahs to overthrow the Shah’s regime!
    3. By eliminating funding sources to terrorists, it will make it very difficult for them to expand and export their poison.
      Also, it is critical that this be a Sunni Arab effort and not be seen as the US led intervention.  US Intervention and resulting Middle East wars do provide some fuel to terrorist propaganda.  It is hard to claim that the killing of 2-400,000 Iraqis endears the Iraqi population to the US.  
    4. Create a coalition of Sunni Arab nations to stand against Iran, its nuclear and missile programs, and its exportation of terror. This is critical to achieve a long-term peace solution without a significant US military intervention and extended occupation.  This is a two-part win if successful.  One, the Sunni Muslims will stand on their own in terms of controlling their region.  Two, Iran will quickly see that the “Great Satan” (the US and Israel) is no longer valid and they are challenged by other Muslims in their own neighborhood.  
  2. Make the US Energy Independent:  This is an often overlooked piece of the puzzle in securing peace in the Middle East and combating terrorism.  Why?  The US needs to use its dominant energy production to checkmate Russian intervention in the region by threatening to ruin the Russian economy by taking a large chunk out of their energy exports which supports 70% of the Russian economy.  Our energy position also checkmates Middle Eastern Oil Producers/OPEC and incentivizes them to support the Trump Doctrine for the Middle East.
  3. Rip Up the Iran Nuclear Agreement:
    1. The Iran Nuclear Agreement is a guarantee that Shiite Iran will become a nuclear power within the Middle East with tested delivery systems that will threaten not only the Middle East but Western Europe as well.  President Trump has set in motion the abandonment of this agreement to isolate Iran.
    2. President Trump will begin to reestablish harsh sanctions on Iran in an attempt to regain some ground given up by the Obama cash giveaway program to Iran.  Our treasury secretary must weaken and degrade Iran’s economy to the point that their ability to continue to support terrorism and invest in their nuclear program is difficult.  Too bad Obama subsidized their terrorism efforts to the tune of $150B when we had Iran on the ropes economically!  Treasonous.  
    3. Once the US takes the sanctions lead and is out of the Iran Nuclear Agreement, President Trump will deal with Iran as a terrorist nation that is an existential threat to the rest of the world much like North Korea.  He will be solidly backed by the Sunni Arab coalition formed during his Saudi Arabia summit with Israel as their “wingman”.  IF Iran does not denuclearize unilaterally, which is not likely, then the coalition will have to degrade their nuclear development with strategic attacks all the while fomenting internal unrest against the Ayatollahs.  One way or another, Iran is incapable of standing against the 50 nation coalition even with Russian support.
  4. Expel Iran from Syria and Iraq:
    1. Due to the failures by the Bush and Obama regimes, Iran has taken a firm foothold in both Syria and Iraq and is aiding the Taliban in fighting US Forces in Afghanistan.  Trump’s efforts to degrade Iran’s terror and nuclear programs is a step towards removing Iranian influence in Syria and Iraq via their Revolutionary Guard.  President Trump will have to convince Russia that their continued support of the Assad regime and the Iranian meddling in Syria is not in Russia’s best interest.  The President can assure Putin that the Syrian Mediterranean facilities he controls can be maintained as a Russian “peaceful” facility as long as they maintain their agreements to stand against Assad and Iran.
    2. Convince Russia that their military interventions in Afghanistan and Syria are not in their long-term best interests.  Sound fanciful?  Not really.  Russia is an economic house of cards and Kevin Spacey proved how flimsy that can be!  Russia relies on its oil exports to fund its economy,  The US rising dominance in world energy production is a gun to the head of the Russian economy.  We could export sufficient quantities of LNG and oil to the EU and other western Asian countries who now import these commodities from Russia, and cripple the Russian economy.  Putin is ruthless but not stupid!  Russia could benefit economically if they join the US and the 50+ Sunni Arab nations in an economic and security pact.   If President Trump could convince China to also join such an arrangement, Russia would be hemmed in.
  5. Israel-Palestinian Peace?  The other side benefit of the 50+ Sunni Arab coalition is that it makes the potential for a Middle East Peace agreement more likely.  How?  The Palestinians cannot survive without outside subsidies from the 50+ Sunni Arab Nations!  President Trump can leverage the coalition to pressure the Palestinians to negotiate in good faith with Israel.  This may end up being too good to be true but I don’t think so…

So, President Trump’s Middle East & Terrorism Doctrine can be summarized as:

  • Form a Middle East Coalition with 50+ Sunni Muslim nations.
  • Develop the US energy sources and make the US a net exporter of energy and a dominant player in the world energy market.
  • Use the ME coalition to eliminate terror group funding from Sunni Muslim countries.
  • Work with the ME Coalition to transform their economies and reduce their dependence on oil long-term and empower their citizens to raise their standard of living.
  • Tear up the Iran Nuclear Agreement.  Assumes that Iran does not agree to abandon their nuclear ambitions.  
  • Re-impose Iranian sanctions and choke their economy.
  • Use the ME Coalition to encircle and isolate Iran and force them to denuclearize or face military attacks.  
  • Use the ME Coalition to support dissidents inside of Iran.
  • Use the ME Coalition to pressure the Palestinians to negotiate a Middle East Peace with Israel.
  • Pressure and negotiate with Russia and China to cooperate in Syria to depose the Assad regime and stand up a peaceful Syria without Iranian intervention.  
  • Pressure and negotiate Russia and China to support the ME Coalition as an economic trading partner with the US, Russia and China!

The implementation of this doctrine will not be easy and not without issues and bumps along the way.  But, it recognizes that a Middle East solution must be based on the support of Sunni Arab Nations, Pakistan, and India. 

It recognizes that both Russia and China would benefit economically by a peaceful Middle East.  No nation has really benefitted by supporting military operations in this region to try to establish hegemony in the region.  It would allow the US to “tame” the Taliban if we can checkmate Russian and Chinese interference. 

The irony is that this doctrine is simple and less threatening to the entire region versus the Neocon interventionist policies of the Bush dynasty.  The Clinton, Bush, Obama mess in Iran and Syria is still a threat but hopefully the Coalition can help defuse the Iranian threat to the region and the world.  

If the Trump Middle East Doctrine is successful, the entire world would benefit from the lessening of the constant turmoil of the region; the exporting of terrorism around the world; and a lowering of tensions between the three largest militaries in the world. 

Since 1917, the carving up and control of the Middle East has caused nothing but conflict, destruction, and terrorism.  This doctrine has the potential of wiping out the evils of 1917 and returning the Middle East to its occupants.  Some of the existing national borders may be redefined during this process which will create some tensions.  One such realignment may be the creation of a separate Kurdish nation out of Northern Iraq.  Hopefully when these realignments occur, the Coalition can intervene and negotiate a peaceful transition.   

One can only hope this doctrine succeeds!

RD Pierini

@RDPierini

 

Hat Tips:

http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2017/11/06/saudi-arabias-dramatic-transformation-continues-weekend-arrests/

 

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The Multi-Faceted Intent of the Syrian Strike-America First!

Trump: And You Thought I Was Kidding!

Are you confused whether Trump’s bombing of the Syrian airbase over Assad’s use of chemical weapons is:

  • a contradiction of his campaign promises;
  • or whether Trump is now a Neo-Con who believes in Nation Building;
  • or has the President simply let his left leaning advisors to con in him to attacking Syria? 

Well, none of the “conventional wisdom” is right and certainly the main stream media (MSM) is clueless as are most of the Republican insiders, Never Trumpers, right-wing isolationists, or self-professed “Conservatives”!

Did Trump know that he would be tested by the world’s bad actors early in his presidency.  ABSOLUTELY. 

  • Syria:  Did he know that Syria would use chemical weapons to test him?  He probably had a test by Syria on his watch list of possible provocations as well as the following:
  • North Korea:  The President probably had a provocation by NoKo on his short list of potential tests.
  • Iran:  The President certainly had Iran on his short list of bad actors and potential provocateurs.
  • Russia:  The President probably did not think that Putin would come at the US directly but use one or more of his partners-in-crime, Iran or Syria.
  • China:  The President probably did not consider China a source of a military challenge due to our mutual need for trade and other common interests in the region.

Trump had contingency plans in place for all of the “A” list of bad actors and their possible provocative actions.  Trump had a bucket full of escalation options for retaliation short of all out war or troop invasion.  Trump also knew that if his retaliation was decisive enough he could use it to stalemate the rest of the bad actors.

What did President Trump Accomplish by Bombing Syria?

All of the potential threats from the bad actors were not necessarily negated but he certainly gave all of them pause.  Further, the two military powers who use surrogates to test the US, Russia and China, were put on notice that the US would not tolerate threats to the US or stand idly by if weapons of mass destruction were used in combat. 

What were the messages sent by Trump and received by the bad actors?

China:  The US needs China to either act directly against North Korea’s nuclear program or at least not oppose action by the US to do so.  The timing of the bombing was especially helpful as President Xi was concurrently meeting with President Trump.  The timing of the bombing and the meeting was perfect as Trump’s words about dealing with North Korea if China would not was backed by his action against Syria.  China now knows that what President Trump says is what he means.  He is not necessarily diplomatic but he certainly says what he means, period.

North Korea:  IF NoKo had a rational leader, which they do not, the Syrian bombing and China’s support of our policy of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula should give the North Korean leadership pause.  It is doubtful that the NoKo leadership is neither rational nor well advised.  NoKo will probably continue to test their nuclear weapons and delivery systems.  China just moved 120,000 troops to their border with North Korea to prevent refugees from NoKo to come into China if the US moves to take out the NoKo nuclear program.  Action by the US is imminent.  Unfortunately, there is really no other option for the US vis-à-vis the denuclearization of the of the Korean Peninsula.  We are probably looking at days, not weeks or months. 

Iran:  Iran will probably adopt a take a “look-see” posture for the time being and not directly take any action against the US.  They will pound their chests and condemn the US but what else is new.  They will oppose any diplomatic efforts to depose his ally, Assad.  But, Iran now knows that Trump will continue to ratchet up sanctions and financial transaction scrutiny.  They now know that what Trump says he will do. 

Syria:  Assad is not as nutty as North Korea but he could retaliate against US troops in Syria fighting ISIS.  THIS IS ONE OF THE PRIMARY REASONS TRUMP HIT SYRIA FOR USING CHEMICAL WEAPONS AS THESE WEAPONS COULD HAVE BEEN USED AGAINST US TROOPS.  IN FACT, I BELIEVE THAT THE ATTACK ON THE CIVILIANS WAS A DRY RUN TO SEE IF TRUMP WOULD REACT.  IF HE HADN’T, ASSAD WOULD BE EMBOLDENED TO USE THESE WEAPONS AGAINST US TROOPS IN SYRIA.  Syria will probably let Russia try to fend off the US and world-wide negative opinion until such time Assad is viewed as a liability to Putin.

Russia:  Putin apparently received the message sent by Trump that Obama is no longer in charge.  Trump stalemated Putin’s advances in the Middle East and probably Eastern Europe.  Putin is now assessing what Trump is and what he represents to the future of Russia.  IF Putin is smart, he will seek to get an agreement with Trump to keep his access to the Syrian naval ports and seek to transition Assad out of power.  This will not be simple nor easy especially since the Alawites (Assad’s Shia group) will want to maintain power over Syria and its 90% Sunni population.  Further, Iran sees Syria as key to their march towards dominating the Middle East with a Shia coalition of Iran, Syria and Afghanistan. 

United Nations:  President Trump and his Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, sent a strong message to the UN, and its members, that they are no longer relevant to the US, or the world, in determining US policy.  We will take an issue to them as a matter of courtesy but our decision is based on America First and we will not wait for the Security Council to act, nor not.   This is accentuated by President Trump cutting the US budget to the UN which is long overdue. 

NATO:  During the campaign candidate Trump made it clear that members of NATO would have to meet their financial obligations AND modernize and emphasize Counter Terrorism if they are to remain relevant and supported by the US.  Message received and backed up by decisive action by the US in Syria.  Too bad the other NATO nations did not initiate the reaction against Syria but perhaps they will be emboldened to do so in the future as they have post-Trump bombing of Syria.

The Aftermath:

So, while 59 Tomahawks and 59,000 pounds of explosives at a cost of $88,500,000 may not be considered by some as significant and others as over-kill, we probably saved over the $88,500,000 in costs for flights, hotel rooms and meals for overstuffed diplomats sitting around a table wringing their hands trying to figure out what to do about Syria, Iran, North Korea, ISIS, and Russia.

Trump planted our flag once again in the sacred ground referred to as the international community.  Time will tell the extent of the fall-out from Trump’s actions but there is no doubt that his action resulted in

“MESSAGE SENT-MESSAGE RECEIVED”.

RD Pierini

@RDPierini