Can Trump get to 1,237 Delegates and
Avoid a Contested Convention?
Donald Trump dominated the popular votes and delegates gained on his way to win in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, and Missouri. Governor Kasich won his home state of Ohio where he is the sitting governor. Trump currently is atop of the delegate count:
- Donald Trump: 673 (Needs 564 more to get to 1,237 to win nomination)
- Ted Cruz: 411
- Marco Rubio: 169
- John Kasich: 143 (46% of Delegates gained in Ohio)
To date, 19,101,725 votes have been cast for the top 4 candidates in the Republican Primaries. Donald Trump has received 7,536,535 votes in total (40% of Total and received 3,196,103 (43% of Total) on Super Tuesday 2!
How does Trump get to 1,237 Delegates?
The balance of the primaries yield 921 Delegates from the 20 state primaries that remain. 13 of the 20 states that remain are winner take all meaning that whoever gets a majority of the votes will win all of the delegates from that State. Trump needs 564 delegates (61% of the remaining delegates) to get to the magic number of 1,237! Conversely, Ted Cruz will need to win an additional 826 delegates which means that he will have to take 90% of the remaining delegates! Kasich has no chance of achieving 1,237 delegates even if he wins all of the remaining delegates.
Even if Trump does poorly on the West coast, Washington (44 Delegates), Oregon (28 Delegates), and California (172 Delegates), he can win in at least 15 additional States that will give him the needed 564 additional delegates. Even if Kasich tries to play spoiler in Pennsylvania and Connecticut, Trump will pick up sufficient delegates in the proportional States to make up the difference.
Will Fewer Candidates Hurt or Help Trump?
Some may argue that without Marco Rubio in the race, Rubio’s supporters will shift to Cruz and Kasich and away from Trump. BUT, those who have subscribed to this fantasy, have not look at the history of this primary season! Up to Super Tuesday 2, as the 17 candidates were pared down to the 4 on Super Tuesday 2, of the remaining 4 candidates, only Trump increased significantly with Cruz getting a slight bump.
The YouGov poll graph of this primary shows Trump’s bump starting on February 12th as Jeb, Fiorina, Carson and others dropped out before Super Tuesday 2. The graph is a clear indication that Trump is picking up the lion’s share of support from the candidates who have dropped out of the race. This is the opposite of what the Republican insiders, the Cruz, Rubio and Kasich campaigns would have you believe as they call for more candidates to drop out. If this trend continues, IT IS SUICIDAL FOR CANDIDATES TO CALL FOR OTHER CANDIDATES TO DROP OUT AS IT APPEARS THAT TRUMP WILL BE THE BENEFICIARY, NOT THE OTHER CANDIDATES!