Comparing 2016 GOP Race to 2008 & 2012-Is it Comparable?

You have been bombarded by pundits comparing the current GOP primary to past primaries.  It is confusing to try to sort out whether the current race is the same or different from other races.  Below is a comparison of the 2008, 2012 and 2016 GOP primary standings as of December 10th for all three years.  (top 5 candidates only, RCP average, * = Primary Winner)

2008

Romney-32.4%;   *McCain-17.2%;     Guilliani-16.2%;  Huckobee-11.0%;   Ron Paul-3.8%

2012

Gingrich-32.8%;   *Romney-20.8%   Cain-12.5%;   Ron Paul-9.5%;   Perry-7.3%

2016

Trump-30.4%;   Cruz-15.6;   Carson-13.6;   Rubio-13.6;   Bush-3.6%

Key Differences:

Non-Political Class Dominance:  Probably the single biggest difference in the 2016 election is the number of non politician candidates. (Including only candidates that made it to the debates)  In 2016 we have three whereas in 2012 we only had one, Herman Cain.  (You could argue that Ted Cruz is also an outsider candidate given his consistent opposition to mainstream Republican positions)    As a corollary to this difference, is the level of animosity being shown between the Republican Establishment insiders and its funding sources towards the outsider candidates, especially Donald Trump.

Total Number of Candidates:  The other difference would be the sheer number of serious (still active) candidates competing and debating.

One could gather from the 2008 and 2012 primaries that whoever is in 2nd place would be the eventual winner of the 2016 primary.  At this point it would be Ted Cruz.  If this holds true, the Republican establishment is not going to be happy with Cruz either.  His pure conservative positions have angered practically everyone in the Republican leadership and the insider pundits.

Political Climate:  The divide between the core of the Republican Party consisting of fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, evangelicals, and those independents who feel disenfranchised by both parties, and the Establishment Republican Party is as wide as it has ever been.  So much so that the much of the so-called conservative pundits are opining like anyone who supports Trump or Cruz has to be deranged, or as SE Cupp put it in here recent post in Townhall.com on 12/10/2015, entitled, “Run, Trump, Run! (As an Independent)”.  (link to the article below)

“Trump actually is leading a modern-day “Know Nothing” movement. His anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim hatemongering are at least out of the 1850s if not the Middle Ages, and it has no place in today’s Republican Party. His ideas are usually unconstitutional, un-American or un-conservative — and very often an alarming hat trick of all three. Whatever group he claims to represent should have to embrace his dimwitted and divisive proposals without the imprimatur of the Republican Party or the conservative movement. And Republicans shouldn’t have to defend religious tests, internment camps or Eisenhower’s “Operation Wetback” just because Trump and his goon surrogates do.”

By way of association, if you support Trump, or even some of his ideas, you are un-American, Un-conservative, dimwitted, divisive and anti-constitution.  She is not the only Republican pundit who feels this way.  David Brooks of the NYT and several others have expressed similar thoughts.

While I have not chosen a candidate to support yet, I totally disagree with the Republican Establishment and their ilk taking cheep shots at and attacking a Republican candidate and his or her followers rather than trying to win the political debate with facts and logic.  The Republican leadership is clueless when looking at its members, and the independents who the Republican Party will need to win in 2016.  They do not see that the base is fed up with weak candidates such as Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and yes, the Bushes, who they feel would not stand up for their values but back up those who were politically connected with favors that helped pin the moniker of Crony Capitalism squarely on the Republican Party.  This feeling was further solidified as they watched in horror as they voted in majorities in both the House and the Senate only to see the Republican leadership “wimp” out to the Democrats time and time again.  Rush Limbaugh said last week and I am paraphrasing, if it will be easy for Hillary Clinton to beat Trump, why can’t other Republican you or the other Republican candidates?

Quite frankly I am not sure what kind of President Donald J. Trump would be or how he would govern.  I totally get the enthusiasm for him as he is espousing many policies that used to be part of the Republican Party.  He is also showing strength by taking on the Democrats, Republicans, the Media, and anyone else he feels is attacking him or his ideas.  WOW, that used to be the MINIMUM of what we expected out of leaders. 

Now the norm for the Republican Party is let the left define the political correctness that we have to adhere to; don’t offend any minorities even when you know the policies of the left have served to harm those very minorities; don’t talk to minorities and explain positions and policies that they need to stand behind for the betterment of their own families, (both parties treat minorities like second class citizens who can’t think for themselves.  They demean and enslave minorities with idiotic rhetoric); go along with big business and make sure that manufacturing jobs leave this country so their profits can improve rather than creating a competitive environment at home;  go along with big business and bring in real cheap or real expensive labor to help their profits by going along with the leftist immigration policies; turn your head when the EPA enacts regulations that kill our small businesses and drive more opportunities to our global big businesses overseas or to foreign competitors; engage in finger-pointing with the left as the middle class slowly melts away and those of you at the top get richer and richer while creating a ceiling where opportunity to excel and succeed is limited to a few in your “class”; finally, only because this article would be too long, you sit back, watch and participate in the shredding of our Constitution by turning foreign treaties (Iran) into executive actions and allowing the executive branch emasculate the powers of the Congress and the courts.

2016 is no way resembles either 2008 or 2012.  I think you will be surprised.  If you are a Republican insider, you will be disappointed with the results.  You have only yourself to blame.  You helped bankrupt this nation and turn us into a second-rate power.  It is up to us to make sure we have a road left that we can travel on to bring this country back.

Hat Tip

2012 Race-Reset Date Range–http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2015/12/12/s-e-cupp-trump-leads-modern-know-nothing-movement-from-middle-ages-surragates-are-goons/

SE Cupp: http://townhall.com/columnists/secupp/2015/12/10/run-trump-run-as-an-independent-n2092102/page/full

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2 thoughts on “Comparing 2016 GOP Race to 2008 & 2012-Is it Comparable?”

  1. Excellent analysis, Saver. I would add that Donald Trump is working far harder than any other candidates, whether R or D. He’s attended more huge rallies and done more one-on-one interviews with practically all TV and radio hosts. I also think he has done more background checking into laws, the Constitution and other information sources.
    P.S. I find it exceedingly difficult, almost impossible even, to believe the latest poll to come out regarding the Iowa caucus.

    1. Iowa is kind of an outlier. The Fox poll is still within the margin of error in Iowa. In 2012 Romney won Iowa but many believe Santorum actually did until the Republican Party magically fond a mistake in the count. Huckabee won it in 2008. Iowa skews toward the evangelical candidates and Cruz fits that bill. The opposite will be true for New Hampshire. We will see!

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