Republican Primaries-Santorum/Gingrich Get the Math

Romney backers are saying that they want Newt to stay in the race as he will keep splitting the conservative vote and give the nomination to Mitt. 

Santorum backers believe that if Newt gets out, Mitt will be able to spend all of the money Mitt has against Santorum by himself in attack ads which will help Mitt and hurt Santorum. 

In either case, Newt is not getting out nor should he!  This is the most important election this Republic has faced since its inception.  The more we can debate and defend core conservative principles, the better off we are as a party and a nation. 

The elephant in the room is Ron Paul but no one is saying much about him at this point.  This elephant is a key swing player in the event Romney needs a few more votes to put him over the top.  Romney probably already has a deal with Paul to have Paul get his delegates to back Romney in exchange for something. 

So, what is going on with the Math?  If you assume that if Santorum ends up ahead of Gingrich or visa versa, the other will join forces with the leader to defeat Romney.  This strategy also somewhat mitigates or at least dilutes Romney’s vast treasure chest for negative ads.  IF he has to split his ad buy between Rick and Newt, it softens the blow somewhat and allows Rick and Newt to counterpunch.  So how could they end up ahead of Romney if they combine their forces? 

Hypothetically:

  • There are roughly 18 States left that Proportion their delegates based on the vote percentage.  There is one state, Indiana, that is a hybrid State but I doubt that anyone will get over 50% of the vote so I consider that to be proportional.
  • There are 8 States left that are Winner Take All states based on who gets the largest number of votes.
  • If you assume that the Proportional State roughly split along the line of 30% – 35% for the top three with Paul picking up 3-4%, and Santorum or Newt has a slight edge in Illinois, Missouri, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas, New Mexico, South Dakota, Nebraska and Montana, Rick and Newt would end up with about 550 Delegates and Romney/Paul 165 Delegates.
  • If you assume that in the Winner Take All states, Romney takes Puerto Rico, Maryland, Washington DC, Delaware, New Jersey, and Utah, and Santorum or Newt takes California, and Wisconsin, Romney would get 186 Delegates and Rick/Newt would get 214 Delegates if they carry California and Wisconsin.
  • As of March 13th, Romney and Paul had 543 Delegates and Santorum and Gingrich had 383 Delegates.
  • Combining all of the current and upcoming primaries, Santorum/Gingrich could surpass the 1144 Delegates needed and Romney/Paul could come up short around 1,000.

This of course is hypothetical but actually not that far-fetched.  California is obviously the key for Santorum/Gingrich.  This will be tough given Romney’s war chest.  The RINOs would not go along with the possibility and would poo-poo and possibility of this playing out.  But when they try to tell you that it is impossible for Santorum/Gingrich to win, don’t believe it.  It is up to you that have State Primaries left. 

This exercise merely points out that “conventional wisdom” is usually wrong on some level and the wisdom is merely an attempt to influence you into a decision of their liking.

RD Pierini

 

Hat Tip:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/primary-tracker/

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